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Fantasy Baseball Showdown: Josh Beckett Versus Rookie Pitchers

Collin HagerMay 28, 2008

Question on what to do with a struggling ace and a couple of younger guys.

Q: Looking at Josh Beckett so far this season, I am not seeing the dominance of '07. What kind of value would Josh Beckett have in a head-to-head league? I also have two young, volatile pitchers that I could use to bring in some high-level pitchers or position players. I have Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershawโ€”I already moved Volquez for Vlad.

A: Let's start with the young guys. Johnny Cueto came out very quickly with a great first start. He's really struggled since. Cueto has problems with control, and he throws a lot of pitches. He throws more than most because he relies more on strikeouts, and power pitchers like that tend to have higher counts.

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But even this is a little bit out of the ordinary. He's only gone five innings in his last two outings, each time needing more than 110 pitches to do it. At this point, you aren't going to get much for him. Many have already given up on the young pitcher. If you own him, you have a couple options: ride it out, trade for below market value, or cut him.

I'm in the ride it out camp. We've seen flashes of his brilliance, and it will return. A couple good starts in a row and you could then see a potential return. I'm concerned about his durability this year though; with all the pitches he's throwing this early in the season. And Dusty Baker doesn't handle young players well.

Clayton Kershaw's value is at its peak right now. Grabbing him was a great move and I'd look to see what you can get for him. I wouldn't advocate looking at some of the top-tier starters like Johan Santana or Cliff Lee, but why not throw something out for Tim Lincecum? Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, and Ben Sheets would be decent targets as well. If I could get someone along those lines, then I think you make the move.

But you have to aim high. You may not get a taker at those levels, but I'd at least throw it out there. Kershaw immediately has become the best pitcher to own on the Dodgers. Overall, if you could get a top-125 pitcher for Kershaw, I think you'd be doing well. That's total rankings, including hitters; the way Yahoo! normally formats their leaders.

If you can't grab a true top-starter, Rich Harden is a great high-risk high-reward prop. Hamels and the like are reaches, but start there and work into a No. 2 type starter. To me, Lincecum is probably a solid realistic target.

As for Beckett, unfortunately, he resides in the same camp as Cueto as far as not having fair market value at this point. Beckett still provides solid K numbers, and he'll get wins because of run support. He's giving up home runs and that's where most of the problem comes. Last season he gave up 17 all year, and he's already given up 10 through May.

His WHIP is actually better than it was last year. Batters are hitting .237 against him this year vs. .245 last year. I think you have to look at him providing help in three major categories, but holding you back in ERA. Sure, you want everything from a stud pitcher, but two good outings can change that number around.

Beckett is still an ace and provides tremendous protection at the top of any fantasy rotation. Sometimes looking at the surface can lead us to see different things. You just have to go a little bit deeper. Ride it out, he'll be just fine.

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