The Biggest NASCAR Storylines After the Chase for the Sprint Cup Contender Round

The Sprint Cup Series heads to Martinsville for the start of the three-race semifinals of the Chase, the Eliminator Round.

All rounds are eliminator rounds, but this one has more eliminator-ness to it, given the name. This round also feels truer, less wild cards, though the relative bullring known as Martinsville, and its ever-present ticking grandfather clock, throw a curveball at the eight remaining chasers.

Joey Logano, making few friends in this year’s Chase, swept the Contender Round and did so by growing stronger in every race, timing his run to the front for the time it mattered most.

Kevin Harvick, say what you will, did what he needed to do to advance on a bum engine at Talladega and enters a round with Phoenix as its cut race.

Jeff Gordon, the only winless driver of the remaining Chasers, is peaking at the right time and Martin Truex Jr. keeps hanging around in that No. 78 car.

Thirty-two races are in the books, four to go with three races deciding who heads to South Beach with the hope of hoisting the Chase Cup, which, mind you, isn’t a cup.

Read on for eliminator storylines as the series heads to Martinsville.

Kevin Harvick Made It, but at What Cost?

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Harvick said he didn’t crash Trevor Bayne on purpose at Talladega in the race’s final restart. He said he was heading up the track as Bayne was heading down. He said all the right things to ensure his place in the Eliminator Round.

That still doesn’t mean he didn’t crash on purpose to freeze the field in the one and only green-white-checkered finish. Harvick, whose engine went numb and could barely keep up with the pace car, used NASCAR’s new rule of one GWC finish to perfection.

He had no car to last three GWCs, but with one? He had the awareness to crash at such low velocity that it kept his hopes of a title defense alive. He won’t say that, but, in a way, he did…and so did others.

Harvick said in Zack Albert’s NASCAR.com story:

"

I definitely don't believe that I caused the second wreck either, so it's just one of those situations where I did the best I could on the restarts to get going, and I got out of the way. I never really even saw the [No.] 6 car until he was by me and doing what he was doing. It was just one of those situations where, you can't stop. You have to continue to try to let it play out and it really did play out.

"

He also referenced how he’ll never quit. Harvick had nothing to lose and everything to gain by this subtle move.

Brad Keselowski said in Tom Jensen’s FoxSports.com story, “When you get to these elimination races, and you've got essentially your whole season on the line, it certainly is going to stretch what you're willing to do. But that's not a bad thing, it's a good thing. It's what NASCAR wanted when they created this format."

To which Kyle Busch added, “Don’t hate the player, hate the game.”

NASCAR made its bed; now it must cozy up in it.

Does Jeff Gordon Really Stand a Chance?

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

You can say he has the experience and the pedigree to win, but looking at how he performed in 2015, is Jeff Gordon a legitimate driver to beat Logano? Harvick?

If the playing field were aggregate, if points from previous rounds carried over, then, no, he has no shot at all. Busch agrees. He said in Joe Rodgers’s Sporting News story:

"I don’t see Jeff Gordon winning it this year. I just don’t see him going to Homestead and being able to beat the 4 (Harvick), the 22 (Logano) right now. Straight race to do that, to beat them, I don’t see that. If it turns into more of a circus at Homestead, then possibly, he’s got a good shot at it."

That’s just it. Every round has seen some degree of unpredictability by the very nature of the Chase playoff format. Jimmie Johnson bowed out at Dover with mechanical issues. He won 10 times at that track.

Kenseth, a winner of five races in 2015, had his chances ruined by Logano’s ambition at Kansas when it looked like the No. 20 car had locked up a spot in the semis.

Harvick, as we already addressed, was this close to elimination until the intentional-crash-that-wasn’t-intentional took place. Wink wink.

“You have no idea. You guys have no idea how high the stakes are," Gordon said in Tom Jensen’s FoxSports.com story. “When competition is at the level that it's at, and you're seeing that opportunity either slip away or in your grasp, the things that you'll go to, the level you'll take it. You don't even know yourself until you're in that position."

So who’s to say Harvick or Logano will make it to Homestead? We just don’t know until the cars line up in Miami. Until that day four weeks from now, yes, Gordon has a chance and with an average finish of 9.0 in the Chase, you cannot discount him.

Who Are the Sleepers to Win the Sprint Cup?

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

You could point to the Busch brothers, Martin Truex Jr. and Carl Edwards as the sleepers in this round. Or you could say the six drivers not named Logano or Harvick are the sleepers.

One thing is certain: There’s no lock, and any of these drivers via good luck or bad luck could be the final one standing. You don’t have to be the best anymore, just the last one standing.

FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen wrote, “But I'd bet this for sure: The hard feelings and hard racing aren't over yet. Whether you love what happened at Talladega or hated it -- and judging from social media, a lot more people hated it -- the drama is a long way from over.”

Gordon has Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Johnson feeding him info and maybe they help him in a pinch. Kyle Busch and Edwards have the bitter Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth at their backs.

Then there’s Truex, still trucking along, the Martinsville clock not having struck midnight yet.

He said in Jay Pennell’s FoxSports.com story:

"

We accomplish our goals. We live up to our full potential. If we don't make mistakes, we can go to Homestead without any problems; there's no doubt in my mind. We have the speed. We have the team to do it. Things that happened last week on pit road almost cost us, and they almost cost us again today. We've got to clean those things up. We cannot make mistakes. That's the only thing I think that could keep us from going to Homestead as a part of the (Championship) Four.

"

If it were a matter of the eight drivers taking on each other, you could power rank them more effectively, but with 35 other drivers of different abilities, technologies and entropies, there’s not telling who will win the Sprint Cup.

At this point, it’s about managing chaos.

Has the Sheen Worn off Joe Gibbs Racing?

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Matt Kenseth’s five wins have been eliminated. The two wins of Denny Hamlin are gone. That leaves four-win Kyle Busch and two-win Edwards as the Joe Gibbs totems to win the Sprint Cup.

While simply trying to qualify for the Chase, Busch went on a tear over the summer winning four races including three in a four-race stretch. Edwards silenced the new-team demons by winning a fuel mileage race in the Coke 600 and then crushing it at “Carlington” for the Southern 500.

Let’s break out the math machine for each driver for average Chase finishes. Busch…beep, boop, blip…has an average finish of 14 so far in the Chase. Edwards has been far quieter, though far better…beep, boop, blip…6.83 with five top 10s out of six races.

In pure Busch fashion, he’s up then down: fifth, 20th, second, 37th, ninth.

At this point, we’ve established that nobody is safe and everybody’s alive. Harvick was once a goner, then he killed it at Dover suddenly becoming the favorite. We see it time and again.

Right now, Joe Gibbs feels down having lost two of its Chase-race winners, but after Martinsville, we could be talking about the remaining JGR cars as the threats to Logano and Harvick.

Then again…

Has Joey Logano Peaked Too Soon?

Butch Dill/Associated Press

On paper, if you simply look at the results, Logano’s sweep of the Contender Round looks like classic peaking-too-early. But when you look closer and look at the nature of the wins, he wasn’t pushing his car from first green flag and grinding out lap after lap for the win.

With the exception of Charlotte where Logano led 227 laps, Logano hasn’t been in front all that often. He led 20 at Talladega and 42 at Kansas. When the race approached its end, his car had grown stronger while others receded into a sea of sheet metal. It’s almost as if he has little choice but head to the front. He has that much horse power.

Logano, rather eloquently, ruminated on the nature of talent in Robbie Mays’s MotorRacingNetwork.com story:

"

The talent has always been there but you have to figure out what makes it shine and figure out your strengths and work on your weaknesses. It takes a lot of time to really work on your talent and make it to where you can be competitive. Everyone out here is talented. To get to that next level you have to look inside of you and say where are you good, where are you bad and how do you make everything good. It’s hard to do that.

"

Because of the nature of the Chase, maybe the No. 22 car pushed when he could have relented. Since everything resets, why make enemies?

It’s a new three-race season, and in this round he has one career win. That came at Texas.

If they bring that Charlotte car to the two 1.5-mile tracks in this round, we may see more fireworks from this team, and questions of peaking too soon will be put to rest.