Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Carolina Panthers (6-0) will be playing in prime time for the second week in a row when they host the Indianapolis Colts (3-4) in the Week 8 Monday night matchup. The Panthers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 27-16 as three-point home favorites in last week’s Sunday Night Football game to improve to 5-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Colts have lost two straight games and dropped to 2-5 ATS with a 27-21 loss to the New Orleans Saints as 5.5-point home favorites last week.

Point spread: Panthers opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.3-17.3 Panthers

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis got off to a brutal start last week against New Orleans, trailing 20-0 due to early turnovers for which quarterback Andrew Luck took sole responsibility. Luck threw two interceptions in the game, bringing his season total to nine after not throwing any for the first time this season the previous week in a 34-27 home loss to the Patriots.

Luck’s ability to limit his mistakes is obviously huge, and he will be facing a tough defense in Carolina. However, he will likely not have to help generate 30 points or more to beat the Panthers, which would have been the case against New Orleans or New England. Instead, Luck can focus more on running an efficient offense that utilizes running back Frank Gore to take some pressure off himself and the passing game.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers are nearly perfect ATS this season because they have played very well in closing out their opponents during the fourth quarter. Last week’s win over the Eagles was another perfect example, as they kicked two field goals and did not allow a point to their opponent one week after outscoring the Seattle Seahawks 14-3 in the fourth en route to a 27-23 upset victory as seven-point road underdogs.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton also continues to play like a leading MVP candidate and would probably be getting talked about a lot more if it wasn’t for Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers also leading undefeated teams so far this season. Newton was able to overcome throwing two interceptions versus Philly too because of the damage he can do on the ground, rushing for a touchdown for the third time in four games.

Smart pick

The Colts simply do not look right despite their preseason hype, while the Panthers are the team playing like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Carolina is just too good defensively in this matchup and will force Luck into even more costly mistakes. That’s why the Panthers are the play to stay unbeaten and cover again in prime time.

Betting trends

The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight MNF games on the road.

The Colts are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after losing as favorite.

The Panthers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.