X-Factors Who Will Decide Which Team Is Crowned 2015 World Series Champion
The World Series matchup is officially set, as the Kansas City Royals pulled out a 4-3 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night to repeat as American League champions.
They will meet the New York Mets, who took care of the Chicago Cubs in four games and will be playing in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2000.
Game 1 is not until Tuesday night, so while we wait for this year's World Series to get underway, let's take a look at some potential difference-makers in the matchup.
What follows is a look at three X-factors for each team—one position player, one starting pitcher and one reliever—who could swing the series with a big performance, and they're not necessarily the six guys you might expect based on how the postseason has played out to this point.
Mets: RP Tyler Clippard
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The New York Mets bullpen has performed well as a whole this postseason:
- 25.2 IP, 17 H, 9 ER, 3.16 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, .183 BAA
Closer Jeurys Familia has been great, nailing down all five of his save chances and making eight total appearances, allowing just two hits and two walks in 9.2 scoreless innings of work.
However, things have been a bit shaky when it comes to bridging the gap to the lights-out closer in the ninth inning.
Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed have been the team's primary setup men, but they have run into problems at one time or another:
- Clippard: 5 G, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
- Reed: 4 G, 3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Clippard has been the team's main eighth-inning option since the Mets acquired him from the Oakland Athletics at the July trade deadline.
He was great in a Mets uniform with a 3.06 ERA, 1.052 WHIP and eight holds in 32 appearances, and the team needs him pitching at his best if it's going to be able to slam the door on what figures to be a number of close games.
Familia is the stud, but Clippard is the X-factor for the Mets bullpen.
Royals: RP Kelvin Herrera
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The Kansas City Royals bullpen has been a major strength once again, picking up five wins so far this postseason and putting up solid all-around numbers:
- 41.0 IP, 36 H, 13 ER, 2.85 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, .234 BAA
They, too, have an all-world closer in Wade Davis.
The 30-year-old has continued his postseason brilliance from a year ago, tallying 6.2 scoreless innings and allowing just three hits and three walks while striking out 10 in these playoffs.
However, with Greg Holland sidelined for the year due to Tommy John surgery, the Royals' three-headed monster is down a man, and the team has leaned heavily on Kelvin Herrera as a result.
He's been up to the task to this point:
- 8 G, 1-0, 3 HLD, 8.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 16 K
His eight appearances are tied for second this postseason with Mets closer Jeurys Familia, as they both trail Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Aaron Sanchez by one.
Herrera pitched in all but one game of the ALCS, allowing three hits and striking out 10 in 5.2 scoreless innings.
Davis will again be counted on to finish games, and don't be surprised if he is called on for multiple innings if needed.
However, with Ryan Madson struggling in the playoffs (5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER), Herrera is the X-factor in the bullpen, and he'll see plenty of action once again.
Mets: 1B Lucas Duda
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Yoenis Cespedes is capable of single-handedly carrying an offense when he's on a hot streak, but he has yet to really catch fire so far this postseason.
He's hitting .265/.286/.471 with three extra-base hits in 34 at-bats in these playoffs, walking just once and striking out 11 times.
So what is the answer to getting him going?
A strong World Series performance from the man hitting behind him in the lineup, first baseman Lucas Duda, could go a long way.
It was another solid regular season for Duda, as he hit .244/.352/.486 with 33 doubles, 27 home runs and 73 RBI for a 3.0 WAR.
His first taste of postseason action got off to a disastrous start, though, and entering Game 4 of the NLCS, he was a meager 3-for-24 (.125 BA) with 13 strikeouts in 24 at-bats.
Then things clicked.
He closed out the series with a huge game, going 3-for-4 with two doubles, one home run and five RBI to help lead the Mets to an 8-3 victory and a series sweep.
"Once in a while you gotta show players you've got confidence in them," manager Terry Collins told reporters, via Adam Rubin of ESPN.com. "And I thought I did that with Lucas, knowing that if he breaks out, he can carry us. And tonight he broke out."
If Duda can keep things going, he could spark the entire offense—and make things tough on the Royals pitching staff.
Royals: SS Alcides Escobar
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Alcides Escobar is never going to be a prototypical leadoff hitter.
He ranked 129th among qualified players during the regular season when he saw an average of just 3.49 pitches per at-bat.
That quick-swinging approach yielded just 26 walks and a .293 on-base percentage during the regular season.
However, he also hit .364 on the first pitch of at-bats, and there was never any consideration of moving him out of that leadoff spot in the order.
"During the playoffs he just locks in," manager Ned Yost told Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star. "And when he’s focused, he’s as good as any player in the league at his position."
He certainly looked like one of the best players in the game during a huge ALCS performance, as he went 11-for-23 with six runs scored to win MVP honors.
The Royals thrive on getting contributions from up and down the lineup on a game-in, game-out basis, but the X-factor to the offense is undoubtedly Escobar's table-setting at the top.
Mets: SP Matt Harvey
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A four-game sweep of the Cubs was a best-case scenario for the Mets in more ways than one, and some extra rest for Matt Harvey was certainly one of the biggest bonuses.
It's been an interesting season, to say the least, for Harvey in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News summed it up perfectly:
"Matt Harvey could be their Game 1 starter in the Fall Classic.
This is the same Harvey who looked ready to shut it down late this season due to his much-discussed innings limit, and whose agent said the Mets would be putting the ace in peril by overworking him.
Now Harvey is being seriously considered to take the mound in Kansas City for Tuesday’s Game 1, which would put him in line to possibly pitch three times in the Series.
"
Harvey has made two starts so far this postseason, and he was brilliant his last time out in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Cubs, as he went 7.2 innings and allowed just four hits and two earned runs while striking out nine.
It wasn't all good, though, as he took a liner off his right triceps when Dexter Fowler hit one back through the box in the sixth inning, and his arm had some significant swelling in the subsequent days.
The swelling was bad enough that there was at least a chance he'd be bypassed for his NLCS Game 5 start if the series had made it that far, according to Adam Rubin of ESPN.com.
That makes the extra rest for Harvey huge, and the team potentially getting three starts from a rested Harvey coming off a great performance last time out makes him the Mets' rotation X-factor.
Royals: SP Johnny Cueto
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There's no bigger X-factor in this year's World Series than Kansas City Royals starter Johnny Cueto.
It's been a wild ride for the 29-year-old in Kansas City to this point.
After the Royals acquired him in a July deadline trade, he went 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his first four starts with the team, including a four-hit shutout against the Detroit Tigers in his home debut.
However, he was just 2-6 with a 6.49 ERA in nine starts the rest of the way, and that was enough for the Royals to turn to Yordano Ventura as the Game 1 starter in the ALDS.
The roller-coaster ride has continued in the postseason.
So far we've seen mediocre Cueto, dominant Cueto and really, really bad Cueto in three starts:
- ALDS G2: ND, 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
- ALDS G5: W, 8.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
- ALCS G3: L, 2.0 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
So, which Cueto will show up in the World Series?
Who knows? And that makes him the biggest X-factor of the series for either team.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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