MLB Playoffs: 10 Most Important Players in the Championship Series
The MLB Playoffs have reached the Championship Series and the matchups in the American and National Leagues have been set.
Before we delve into the top 10 players remaining, let's set the ground rules.
First, hot streaks matter. We know that hot teams in baseball make the most noise. The same goes for players. At one point in the second half of the season, you thought Yoenis Cespedes was the MVP over Bryce Harper, right? Some players explode in the postseason and others fall down the well. Let's reward those who explode because October is all about the playoffs. For that reason, slumping players like Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo don't make the list.
Second, projected performance matters. The postseason still has two rounds left. It isn't going to end after the ALCS and NLCS so a player's ranking will be affected by his continued production if his team advances. It's why Jorge Soler isn't No. 1 despite his unreal NLDS.
Second, the stats are limited to this postseason. It's obvious that there are 10 clear-cut players with whom you'd start a franchise or pick as the best players from the regular season. Never would, say, Curtis Granderson, finish higher than Kyle Schwarber—a future mayoral candidate of Chicago—but these playoffs certainly would mean Granderson could (he doesn't here). Let's focus on the Wild Card and and Division Series only. Any mention of regular season stats is strictly for context and baselines for players' production.
Third, pitching rules. Call this the "Madison Bumgarner Rule." Since hitting has been so bad in baseball the past few seasons, I was on a crusade declaring good hitting is more important than good pitching (because if you had good hitters, then you maximized your chances to beat good pitching). Not this time. The studs left in the Championship Series are too good to argue against. They're going to be clogging the top 3. The only question is in which order do I put Johnny Cueto, Jacob deGrom and Jake Arrieta?
Fourth, this list is subjective. Your No. 1 may be my No. 5 or my No. 3 may be your least favorite baseball player. So if you want to trash the list, please do. This is meant to spark discussion. All I ask is that you begin by saying "With all due respect..." before you let the advanced sabermetrics and curses fly.
(Fifth, unofficially, I'm a sucker for moments. Jose Bautista's bat flip was my favorite baseball moment since Matt Stairs's go-ahead home run in the NLCS against the Dodgers in 2008. It took all my might to not put him or Schwarber—with his monshot—at No. 1.)
Let's have some fun.
The Honorable Mentions
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As with all lists, there are those who were on the fringe, but had to be relegated to the dreaded honorable mentions section.
It's fair that we begin with those who didn't make it so you know whether or not you'll hate me as you go through this list. (I have a feeling Royals fans will.)
- Salvador Perez—Kansas City Royals. It's tough when a slash line of .260/.444/.715 doesn't earn you a spot on the list, especially when that production is over five games. Perez is crushing the ball right now. But he's still the same Perez who disappeared in the playoffs in 2014, finishing with almost as many strikeouts (10) as he did hits (12).
- Juan Lagares—New York Mets. Statistically, he's the best player on the Mets this postseason. But with only seven at-bats, the sample size is too small compared to the others.
- Kendrys Morales—Kansas City Royals. Morales is perhaps the weakest honorable mention on the list. But something has to be said when a player's OBP is only .300, yet he manages an OPS over 1.000. Include three home runs and six RBI and Morales deserves a nod.
- Josh Donaldson—Toronto Blue Jays. Despite hitting only .211, the projected AL MVP makes the most of the balls he puts in play, slugging .611 with two home runs and a double. His five runs scored are a nice touch, but doing so with a .333 OBP is more of a compliment to the productive offense behind him. Donaldson is an important part to the Blue Jays' World Series chances. Right now, though, there are just 10 guys better than him coming in.
- Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey—New York Mets. Two-thirds of the deadliest rotation in baseball. The NLCS is primed for Harvey to take over and Thor could be a relief monster late in games. There's only one king of that rotation...
On to the list.
The Start: No. 10 Jose Bautista
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If we're to follow the rules (the official four), Joey Bats can't finish much higher than this spot.
Though he had the most talked about moment in the playoffs so far, and his bat-flip skills are the rudest in the game, his production has been below the others' averages heading into the ALCS.
A slash line this postseason of .273/.304/.636 isn't Bautista numbers in terms of on-base, but he's actually upped his slugging percentage and batting average. Couple that with a cannon out in right field and he's still one of the most important players in the ALCS.
Of his six hits against Texas, four went for doubles and home runs (two each) so when he does put the ball in play, he gets bases.
He's the linchpin of the most explosive offense in baseball and with him in the lineup, he's the middle hitter in a death zone from 2-3-4.
No. 9 Curtis Granderson
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It's hard to ask much more of your leadoff man. With Daniel Murphy, Granderson is the most productive run producer on the Mets.
In the five games against the Dodgers, Granderson is 7-for-18 with two doubles, five RBI, an OBP of .476 and is slugging an even .500
It may seem detrimental that Granderson only has only one run scored (which came in game 5) and one stolen base, but he's been left on base five times already.
And with his power, it could be a matter of time before Granderson adds more to his production.
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No. 8 Roberto Osuna/Jeurys Familia
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It may be cheating to have two players take one spot, but both closers have been so lights out and so similar in their production
Both pitchers have combined for 10.3 innings pitched, nine strikeouts, zero walks, 0.00 WHIP and 0.00 ERA.
The Blue Jays and Mets rely on their bats and starting pitching respectively, but having these two as closers just makes these teams all the more dangerous and complete.
No. 7 Jorge Soler
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Talk about an explosion. Soler had one of the best hitting performances in a postseason series ever and there was no hotter hitter in the division series.
Soler, at 23, set an MLB record for reaching base on his first nine plate appearances, including a double, two home runs and six walks. An inhumane slash line of .571/.769/1.571 is reason enough to believe that Soler is locked in for the NLCS against the Mets (understatement). Couple that with a beautiful throw to home to save a run and Soler is someone who can be the second best player for the Cubs' run until Bryant and Rizzo get back on track.
The only issue is that, in the clincher against St. Louis, Soler went 0-for-3 with a walk. It's impossible for him to keep that production up. His potential to level out to his regular season stats is why he ends up at No. 7.
No. 6 Daniel Murphy
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The hottest hitter on the Mets, Murphy almost single handedly clinched a spot in the NLCS for the Mets.
A triple in the first inning that opened up the scoring for New York. A heads-up baserunning move that allowed him to go from first to third on a walk and a solo home run off Zack Greinke that turned out to be the game-winning run propelled Murphy up the list.
With Cespedes struggling to hit anything but home runs, Murphy is the most important player in the Mets lineup. He leads the team in home runs (3), slugging (.810) and runs (5). He's tied with Granderson for the team lead in hits (7) and RBI (5). His all around production is why he gets placed over Granderson and Bautista.
The Halfway Point: No. 5 Edwin Encarnacion
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The most violent swing in baseball takes the five spot, mostly because he can explode at any moment.
While the attention this season has rightfully been on guys like Troy Tulowitzki, who was part of a blockbuster trading day for the Toronto Blue Jays and arguably the best shortstop in the Majors, MVP-candidate Josh Donaldson and Bautista, Edwin Encarnación has been in the background, steadily producing.
Coming into the NLDS against Texas, Encarnación quietly batted .286 in the regular season, hitting 39 home runs and 111 RBI.
Encarnación has a postseason slash line of .333/.478/.556 with six hits and five walks and one home run, and his offensive prowess is the perfect cap to the most explosive lineup in baseball.
His place as the cleanup hitter is the ultimate protection for Donaldson and Bautista because who really wants to put runners on base with Encarnación looming?
No. 4 Kyle Schwarber
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(Has it sunk in? No? Take another minute.)
(Good? Take your time.)
(OK. Here we go.)
Schwarber has become a league favorite since he got into the majors. He started off on a power-streak, hitting 16 home runs in 69 games (prorated to about 37 home runs over 162).
Now you're telling me the 22-year-old rookie has been terrorizing the best team in baseball from the six spot?
A slash line of .500/.600/1.231 is as impressive as Soler's start because no one can tell me that Schwarber can't keep that up. Okay, he can't, but I'm all in.
Keep hitting them bombs, Schwarber!
No. 3 Johnny Cueto
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Who better to know the wrath of great pitching in the postseason than the Royals?
Not to get burned by the potential wrath of Bumgarner, the Royals went out and got ace Johnny Cueto who, despite faltering a bit during his first few starts, reminded us why the Royals traded for him.
Going eight innings, giving up two runs on two hits and eight strikeouts, Cueto was able to stifle the up-and-coming Astros.
And, with an offense that doesn't have the bats to just outscore teams, the Royals are going to need Cueto to duplicate these starts for their chances to advance.
Only two pitchers left in this postseason give their teams better odds.
No. 2 Jacob DeGrom
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Listen, if a "tough" game for deGrom is six innings, two runs, three walks and seven strikeouts, especially when those two runs came in the first inning, I'll take that.
Sure, deGrom labored a bit throughout the game and didn't have the stuff with which he usually dominates, he's still the best pitcher in that rotation. As far as I see it, he's just proven his moxie by trudging through and salvaging that bad start.
Don't let game 5 against the Dodgers fool you, deGrom is a stud and will be the starter game 3 when the series shifts to Chicago.
Luckily for deGrom and the Mets, his start comes one game after No. 1...
The End: No. 1 Jake Arrieta
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The Cardinals are a premier franchise in the majors, ending the regular season with an MLB-best 100 wins. It was only a matter of time before Arrieta gave up some runs.
Even Cueto and deGrom both struggled at points in their postseason starts so let's give Arrieta a mulligan. He's been automatic since midway through the season so it makes sense that he'll bounce back.
According to Eye on Baseball, when Arrieta is ahead in the count, batters hit .114 with a .161 slugging percentage. During the season, Arrieta had batters in an 0-1 count 401 times.
Going up against a Mets offense that struggles to score runs, get on base and hit the ball (of the four teams reamining in the Championship series, they're last in all three), Arrieta should find his groove again.
As with deGrom, don't let one shaky start from Arrieta cloud your judgment. The Cubs will go as far as Arrieta takes thems.
And if the Cubs want to end the 107-year drought, they'll need the best pitcher left in the postseason.
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