Updated 2015 NASCAR Title Odds: Week 31
Will the last big name remaining in the Chase for the Sprint Cup please turn out the lights?
With four races completed in the 10-race Chase, itโs looking like there may be more A-list Sprint Cup drivers who will soon be joining six-time Chase champ Jimmie Johnson in the โeliminatedโ pile.
Johnson, of course, was eliminated at Dover, unable to advance to the second round.
And now with the way several drivers kicked off Round 2 with terrible performances, they have just two races to turn things around and stave off elimination.
That group includes Matt Kenseth, who is last in the remaining 12-driver Chase pack, 45 points (more than a complete race winโs worth of points) behind new series leader Joey Logano, who won Sunday at Charlotte.
And while Logano has punched his ticket into Round 3 of the Chase, others who are also in potential trouble of not making it out of Round 2 include Dale Earnhardt Jr. (32 points behind Logano), Kyle Busch (-23) and even Ryan Newman (-19).
Frankly, to see how Kenseth dropped like a rock in the standings after Charlotte, is there really, truly, any driver other than Logano who is completely safe and will advance to Round 3โif they donโt win Sunday at Kansas or next Sunday at Talladega?
The answer is simple: No.
We could see Kevin Harvick, who is second in the standings, just six points behind Logano, tank at Kansas or โDega and be eliminated.
Thatโs why drivers need to forget about points once again at Kansas and have just one key motivating force: to go for a win at Kansas and Talladega. Nothing else matters.
Letโs see how this weekโs odds stack up:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
1 of 12
Working in his favor: Dale Earnhardt Jr.ย is typically strong at Kansas. Plus, he has a score to settle at the 1.5-mile track. He was leading this race last year when a right front tire unexpectedly blew out. There went Juniorโs chance of a win and, ultimately, eventual elimination from the Chase. He has a lot of incentive to do well at Kansas because, just like the other 11 Chase drivers, he doesnโt want to leave anything to chance that heโll automatically have yet another good finish at Talladega next week.
Sure, Earnhardt and the No. 88 car have been the most dominant driver and car combo on restrictor-plate tracks the last three seasons, but nothing is assured. He needs to win at Kansas to get to Round 3, and then he can basically coast comfortably at โDega.
Working against him: Following Sundayโs race at Charlotte, Earnhardt appeared like a man who had just lost his puppy. While heโs confident about turning things around, the look on his face showed what appeared to be considerable worry. And now that heโs in 11th place, 32 points behind series leader Joey Logano, heโs working from behindโnot one of Earnhardtโs strengths.
Much like Matt Kenseth and, to a certain extent, Kyle Busch, Junior is faced with a must-win situation in Kansas on Sunday. And if he falls short, his whole season will hinge upon how he finishes at Talladega next week.
Odds: 75-1
Ryan Newman
2 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Ryan Newman and consistency continue to be used in the same sentence. Heโs actually doing better this season than he did last season. I like the Cinderella story Newman continues to be. But will he be able to reach the championship before the clock strikes midnight?
Working against him: Somewhere, some way, some how, Newmanโs Cinderella story is bound to come to an end. And Iโm getting a bad feeling that story will come to an end in Round 2. He either has a bad race at Kansas or Talladegaโor both. Call it a gut feeling, but Newman either wins his first race since 2013 in the next two races or his Chase may very well come to an end after Talladega.
Odds: 50-1
Kyle Busch
3 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Kyle Busch has become one of the top clutch drivers in the Sprint Cup Series when things go south. He thrives on adversity, and this season heโs faced the most adversity he ever has, missing the first 11 races due to the bad wreck he had at Daytona back in February. Sure, Charlotte didnโt turn out the way Busch hoped, but he certainly is very capable to bounce back at Kansas.
Working against him: While Busch is a good comeback driver, his past history in the Chase speaks volumes. Iโve lost count on the number of times Busch came into the Chase as a favorite, only to fall short time after time after time.
Be it wrecks or mechanical issues or pit crew errors, Busch has almost a jinx-like aura in the Chase: starts good, finishes bad. Now that heโs back in 10th place, can he bounce backโor will what happened at Charlotte be the first step toward elimination two races from now?
Odds: 50-1
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Brad Keselowski
4 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Brad Keselowski likes 1.5-mile tracks. Thatโs good going into a place like Kansas this Sunday. But after failing to make a statement at Charlotte, Keselowskiโs season could come down to how he performs at Kansas. If he doesnโt make an appreciable gain in the standings, he may fall too far behind to rally back at Talladega.
Working against him: Much like we said last week, Keselowski just hasnโt seemed to be the Brad of old (pre-2015) this season. It almost seems like heโs stuck in neutral, with just one win and has not been in many conversations when it comes to discussion about who will win the championship again.
If he has a poor outing at Kansas, even with his affinity at 1.5-mile tracks, Keselowskiโs season could very well be overโand Talladega would be the final straw to eliminate the 2012 champ.
Odds: 50-1
Carl Edwards
5 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Carl Edwards excels on 1.5-mile tracks such as Kansas, and he had a decent-enough run at Charlotte. But heโs never won on his โhome track,โ so a win Sunday would be a huge step forward as he continues to collect strong finishes in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Working against him: Letโs face it, sooner or later one of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers is going to falter. Kyle Busch is partly there already, but my gut tells me Edwards is due for a bad race at either Kansas or, more likely, Talladega. And if that happens, his championship hopes could go as well. Weโve already seen Jimmie Johnson fall by the wayside, and itโs likely weโre going to see several more big names fall in Round 2. Donโt be surprised if Edwards is one of those.
Odds: 45-1
Jeff Gordon
6 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Jeff Gordon has done what he needs to do thus far in the Chase. He advanced into the second round and, after the start of Round 2 at Charlotte, heโs in seventh place, just 11 points out of first place. Kansas and Talladega are among his better tracks, even with Talladegaโs penchant for being a wild-card track. If Gordon can get through Kansas strongly with a top five, all he has to do at Talladega is lie back and try to stay out of troubleโand heโll make it to Round 3.
Working against him: While heโs arguably one of the most sentimental favorites to win this seasonโwith fans hoping he goes out in his final season as a driver with his fifth career championshipโGordon just has not had a championship season to date. He still hasnโt won a race, and there are just two races left in Round 2 and six races overall in his career.
While heโs done what he needs to get to where heโs at, it may not be good enough to advance to Round 3. He desperately needs to win at Kansas or โDega, or his final season and hopes for a final championship may come to an abrupt and premature end.
Odds: 25-1
Kurt Busch
7 of 12
Working in his favor: If you would have asked me after last monthโs race at Richmond where Kurt Busch would be at this point in the Chase, Iโm not sure I could say with complete confidence that heโd be in fifth place, just nine points out of first.
Busch had a strong race at Charlotte, and itโs very likely he will have an equally strong race at Kansas. Busch could be the biggest underdog of the Chase, but heโs doing what he needs to doโand likely will continue to do just that going forward.
Working against him: Busch has had issues with consistency at points this season. While things have gotten better in 2015 than they were in 2014, the biggest question is whether he can maintain the consistency heโs shown this season and keep it going.
If Busch has a bad race at Kansas, will he be able to recover at the always-unpredictable Talladegaโor will that be the end of the Chase road for him?
Odds: 20-1
Matt Kenseth
8 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Matt Kenseth has five wins, including one at New Hampshire three races ago that gave him an automatic berth into Round 2. The man knows how to win. And much like Kevin Harvick, he has a knack to bounce back with a good performance after a bad showing the race before. Kenseth has a decent track record at Kentucky. A top-five win will be a big help, but he has to go for the win and nothing less.
Working against him: Kenseth went from hero to zero in just one race. He went from contender to a man in big trouble with two more races to go in Round 2 of the Chase. Kenseth is 45 points behind new series leader Joey Logano, which is the equivalent of a full race win, plus a couple of bonus points.
Kenseth needs to hope roles are reversed Sunday at Kansas, he wins and Logano has a bad day. Anything less and Kenseth does not want to cast his championship hopes on the always-unpredictable Talladega.
Odds: 25-1 (Any other driver who is ranked last in the points would likely have much higher odds, but this is Kenseth weโre talking about. Thatโs why he hasnโt dropped to 100-1 oddsโor worse.)
Martin Truex Jr.
9 of 12
Working in his favor: As one of the biggest underdogs this season, Martin Truex Jr. keeps bouncing back like a puppy chasing a rubber ball. He has shown quite convincingly that heโs ready to compete for the championship and that his team is far exceeding what many likely expected from them. If Truex can get to Round 3, Iโm confident youโre looking at one of the four finalists who will battle it out for the championship at Homestead six weeks from now.
Working against him: Truex cannot afford a bad race at Kansas, which has not been the most hospitable place for him in his career. He needs to come out of there with nothing less than a top-five finish, lest he cast his lotโand the remainder of his Chase hopesโon Talladega. And given his poor record there, thatโs the last thing he wants to do. Kansas could potentially be the most important race Truex has competed in this season.
Odds: 17-1
Denny Hamlin
10 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Denny Hamlin continues to surpriseโwell, he may not be surprising others, but he is surprising me. Iโve forgotten about the torn ACL in his right knee, as heโs proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is not affecting his performance (well, at least until next weekโs race at Talladega, and then all bets are off).
Coming into Kansas, Hamlin is solidly in fourth place, just eight points out of first. If he can emerge with yet another top five, he may earn enough points to ensure he's moving to Round 3, no matter how he finishes at Talladega.
Working against him: While heโs had a very good Chase to date, Hamlin is known for wearing his emotions on the sleeve of his firesuit. If something goes wrong at Kansas and he has a less-than-stellar day (say, finishing between 20th and 35th), Talladega is the last place he wants to go to and try and protect what he has. If he can get through Kansas and Talladega with decent runs, I can easily see him advance to the championship round.
Odds: 9-1
Joey Logano
11 of 12
Working in his favor:ย Joey Logano continues to surprise this season. Heโs won four races, including this past Sundayโs event at Charlotte, which gave him an automatic berth into Round 3 of the Chase. Plus, heโs won three other races, including the season-opening Daytona 500. In a sense, Logano has become the face of Penske Racing, given how teammate Brad Keselowski has had a fairly unremarkable season.
Working against him: Can Logano keep the momentum going for six more races? He managed to do so last year, only to have his championship hopes end prematurely due to a mistake on pit road. With each success Logano has, he moves closer to getting back to Homestead and trying to right the wrong that occurred to him last year.
But at the same time, will he obsess so much about last yearโs misfortune that he may be struck once again if he reaches the final round? We like what we have seen so far from Logano, but weโre still not 100 percent confident he can sustain all the way to the championship stage after Homestead.
Odds:ย 6-1
Kevin Harvick
12 of 12
Working in his favor: He has the best car, the best crew chief and heโs also arguably the best driver. Kevin Harvick has all the elements he needs to repeat as Sprint Cup champion. The easiest way for him to do that is to win at Kansas, thus avoiding any stress at Talladega next week. And then, if Harvick can win at either Texas or Phoenix, like he did last season in Round 3, winning the championship at Homestead may ultimately be a mere formality.
Working against him: There will be no stopping Kevin Harvickโunless Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers stop themselves like they did at Chicagoland and New Hampshire. However, I think the lessons both men learned from those instancesโand how they fought back to win at Dover and advance to Round 2โwill prove to be a rallying cry that will carry them all the way to the championship for the second consecutive season.
Odds: 3-1
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