Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals
After losing the National League Division Series to the Chicago Cubs in four games, it'd be easy to call for sweeping change in St. Louis this winter.
But once emotions calm and sanity creeps back in, we'll remember that the Cardinals were baseball's most successful team during the regular season—and that a large part of that roster will be back in 2016.
Lest we forget that the series may have gone in a completely different direction had Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright been able to pitch in the rotation...or if Yadier Molina was able to grip a bat...or if Matt Adams was healthy enough to play first base.
That's not an excuse as much as it's a fact, and while changes are certainly coming to Busch Stadium, the fact is that they'll be on a far smaller scale than some would like.
What follows is a look at the decisions the team is going to have to make when it comes to the roster—and some reinforcements that could be welcomed.
Payroll Breakdown
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St. Louis hasn't missed the playoffs since its Opening Day first cracked the $100 million mark in 2011, and the Cardinals sat with a franchise-record $122 million committed to the roster on Opening Day this year. A new franchise-record Opening Day payroll awaits the team in 2016, as it enters the offseason with only eight players under contract at a cost of $90 million.
While the team has a new $1 billion TV deal set to kick in come 2018, which should give it added flexibility moving forward, there's no guarantee that it's prepared to spend some of that future revenue now.
That could lead to some difficult decisions for general manager John Mozeliak this winter.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
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Players Headed for Arbitration (2015 salary)
- 1B Matt Adams ($534,000)
- OF Peter Bourjos ($1.65 million)
- RHP Steve Cishek ($6.65 million)
- C Tony Cruz ($775,000)
- RHP Seth Maness ($530,000)
- 1B/OF Brandon Moss ($6.5 million)
- RHP Trevor Rosenthal ($535,000)
When it comes to arbitration in St. Louis, there's Trevor Rosenthal—and there's everyone else. Locking up their 25-year-old closer to a long-term extension would be a perfect start to the Cardinals' offseason and should be a priority for GM John Mozeliak.
Something along the lines of the four-year, $42 million extension Craig Kimbrel inked with Atlanta before the 2014 season would not only buy out his three arbitration-eligible years, but his first year of free agency as well.
Matt Adams, Tony Cruz and Seth Maness will all be retained with salaries in the $1.2 million to $1.5 million range, while Peter Bourjos and Steve Cishek won't be offered arbitration at all.
That leaves Brandon Moss, a player for whom cases can be made to keep and to part ways with.
Keeping Moss' left-handed bat at a cost of around $8 million seems like an expense the Cardinals can avoid, with Adams starting at first base against right-handed pitching and no shortage of younger, cheaper outfielders already on the roster.
But the Cardinals traded a promising pitching prospect (LHP Rob Kaminsky) to Cleveland in exchange for Moss and are certainly looking for more of a return on their investment than 12 extra-base hits and eight RBI.
They'll work out a one-year deal with Moss for $7.7 million, a price that still gives them the flexibility to flip him in a trade should another team come calling.
St. Louis' Own Free Agents and Players with Options
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Potential Free Agents
- RHP Matt Belisle
- RHP Jonathan Broxton ($9 million team option)
- LHP Randy Choate
- LHP Jaime Garcia ($11.5 million team option)
- OF Jason Heyward
- RHP John Lackey
- 1B Mark Reynolds
- RHP Carlos Villanueva
The Cardinals are going to lose someone from the rotation, and the choice is all theirs.
Do they want to keep John Lackey, arguably the team's best starter in 2015 (and the only one to crack the 200-inning plateau) but will be entering his age-37 season, or Jaime Garcia, who was equally impressive in 2015 and will be entering his age-30 season but can't be counted on to stay healthy?
They'll opt to go with Garcia, who, despite a history of arm problems, is less of a risk on a one-year deal than Lackey—who has previously stated he'd like to stay in St. Louis—would be on a multiyear deal.
That'd give the Cards a 2016 rotation of Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn and Garcia, with Tim Cooney, Marco Gonzales and Tyler Lyons in reserve for when an opening becomes available.
Figuring out Jason Heyward's actual free-agent value is an effort in futility, especially when those within the game can't agree on what it'd take for him to re-sign in St. Louis, as Jeff Passan wrote for Yahoo Sports in September.
"One personnel man said he thinks Heyward never hits the free-agent market and re-signs with St. Louis for seven years and $140 million," Passan wrote. "Another GM agrees, though at a much higher valuation: eight years, $175 million, with an opt-out after four seasons."
You could make the case that, with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty already in the fold and Matt Holliday still under contract, the Cardinals don't need Heyward, but the reality is they do. He's a proven commodity just entering his prime, one who can still develop into an offensive force.
He winds up re-signing with the Cardinals on an eight-year, $185 million deal with the aforementioned opt-out.
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Potential Free-Agent Targets
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Going out and signing big-name free agents just isn't the Cardinals' style, and this remains a team without any glaring holes that would necessitate such a move. Any forays they make into the open market are sure to be about adding depth to the bench and bullpen.
Here are some of the names the Cardinals could be linked to once free agency begins:
- Tyler Clippard, RHP: The two-time All-Star is at his best in a setup role and is familiar with National League hitters, having spent the bulk of his career in the Senior Circuit.
- Darren O'Day, RHP: He has quietly become one of the game's elite non-closing relievers, pitching to a 2.07 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 402 strikeouts over 400 innings since 2009. He's better against right-handed batters but has become adept at shutting down the opposition from either side of the plate.
- Gerardo Parra, OF: He's only an option if Heyward departs. An above-average defender who can play all three outfield positions, Parra has middling power but would be a left-handed option in what could be an all-right-handed-hitting outfield.
- Joakim Soria, RHP: He's juggled multiple bullpen roles over the past two years and could have his eye on a ninth-inning opening elsewhere. But if he's willing to serve as a setup man, Soria would be a tremendous addition to the back end of the Cardinals bullpen.
Potential Trade Targets
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With little in the way of glaring needs, it's difficult to identify potential trade targets for the Cardinals. So we'll focus on potential options should Heyward depart as a free agent, as well as some relievers that could be on the move.
Keep in mind: There's no indication any of the players listed below are readily available...yet. But once the playoffs are over and the offseason kicks into high gear, they could be.
- Jake McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays: While he's still highly effective, McGee figures to land a salary around $5 million through arbitration this winter, an expense the financially strapped franchise may deem too expensive for a non-closer.
- Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles: This southpaw was the subject of trade rumors for much of last offseason and could be once again this winter. A $5 million salary for a LOOGY may be too expensive for an Orioles club that has multiple key free agents it needs to re-sign.
- Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals: Washington figures to move Storen after replacing him as closer in two consecutive seasons. He's a potential replacement for Broxton if he departs as a free agent.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Want to talk Cardinals' offseason plans or anything baseball-related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR.
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