Patriots vs. Cowboys: What's the Game Plan for New England?

For months, many figured the New England Patriots would be operating at a talent deficit in their Week 5 game against the Dallas Cowboys. However, while Tom Brady will attempt to sustain his MVP-caliber campaign on Sunday, it's the Cowboys who will start the game behind the eight ball, with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant among those out of action for a hobbled Dallas squad.

The tables have certainly turned on the Cowboys after a strong 2-0 start. Any team will struggle to replace two game-changers such as Romo and Bryant, and while the offense has had its moments, the Brandon Weeden-led unit hasn't been dangerous or consistent enough to overcome the defense's severe regression during the Cowboys' two-game losing streak.

Nevertheless, Dallas is an unfamiliar opponent with enough talent to present a unique challenge to the Pats.  The Cowboys possess arguably the league's best offensive line, and the sputtering defense gets a pair of front-seven playmakers back from suspension in Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain, who add important depth to a unit beset by injuries.

The Pats have a long way to go following their early bye week and could use a strong start to propel them through a grueling three-month stretch without rest. Turning to the film, let's dissect how New England can remain unbeaten on Sunday.

Offensive Game Plan

New England has heavily slanted toward the pass this year and figures to remain an air-heavy team so long as Tom Brady continues to roll at an MVP-caliber clip. However, given Dallas' recent struggles against both the pass and the run, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels should have an opportunity to call a balanced game that keeps the Cowboys off balance.

According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Cowboys rank 20th in both pass and run defense. Much of that mediocrity stems from the increased pressure Dallas has faced over the past two weeks—with a diminished offense, the Cowboys have lost the time of possession battle in each of their past two contests against the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Last year, Dallas skated by with similarly average defensive personnel because of the offense's ability to control the ball, as the team ranked third in time of possession in 2014.

Without that safety net, the defense has gotten overexposed against the Falcons and Saints. With the defense on the field for an average of 32 minutes, 33 seconds in those two games, the Cowboys have regressed significantly on a per-play basis, falling from a top-10 defense against both the pass and the run to a bottom-10 defense:

	Yards per Pass	NFL Rank	Yards per Run	NFL Rank
Weeks 1-2	5.41	7	2.59	1
Weeks 3-4	7.59	26	4.58	25

When the Pats do stick with Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount on the ground, we might expect to see more zone runs than usual. Atlanta in particular had success with "21" personnel (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE), opening wide running lanes for Devonta Freeman by picking off Dallas defenders along the front seven.

Everything goes right on the above play. Center Mike Person has reach-blocked Ken Bishop (No. 93), while the fullback Patrick DiMarco and left guard Andy LeVitre square up to take out linebackers Anthony Hitchens (No. 59) and Kyle Wilber (No. 51). Though Hitchens was able to sidestep LeVitre, Freeman had already built up a head of steam through the hole and picked up nearly 20 yards before being tackled in the secondary.

The Pats don't use much fullback outside of the goal line, especially with Michael Hoomanawanui now traded to New Orleans. However, one wrinkle they could use to generate a similar numbers advantage involves lining up Rob Gronkowski in the flex wing tight end position. New England had success using this formation against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, with Gronk sealing off an interior gap for Dion Lewis.

Of course, the running game should remain a change-up to the passing attack. There isn't necessarily much to review on this front: Gronkowski should continue to thrive against a Cowboys defense that primarily relies on two-high coverage schemes (Cover 2, Quarters, etc.), which leaves the seams vulnerable. In addition, Dallas has had issues covering running backs, ranking 28th in DVOA against the position on Football Outsiders, so expect Lewis to have another solid day on passing downs.

If Brady and McDaniels might pick on one player, it's Brandon Carr. The veteran corner has been a disappointment since signing a five-year, $50.1 million deal in free agency before the 2012 season. Carr hasn't picked up his performance in 2014, as quarterbacks have posted a 126.3 quarterback rating against him on the season, per Pro Football Focus. That figure ranks 60th out of 69 qualified corners thus far.

Dallas is primarily a zone or pattern-match defense, so the Patriots can't necessarily isolate Carr in man coverage away from his help. However, the film illustrates his tendency to play too far off coverage, a byproduct of his lack of ideal recovery speed (see Willie Snead's catch last week at Q1, 8:26). When Carr does get in close quarters, he has a penchant to grab, as shown on this holding call that negated an interception last week:

Getting Hardy and McClain back from suspension might only mean so much for the Cowboys this week. Hardy has missed 19 consecutive games dating back to Week 1 last season, while McClain missed almost the entire offseason program with a knee injury. Both figure to have extreme levels of rust, and it would be surprising if either immediately assumed a three-down role right away.

On paper, the Pats should sustain their prolific pace from the first three weeks. The real question is whether New England can also control the pace of the game, a burden that will fall largely on how the defense answers its most pressing question.

Defensive Game Plan

It's not too hard to figure out where Dallas is headed with its offensive game plan. With the passing game severely truncated under Weeden, the Cowboys have turned to a heavy run-based approach. Over the past two weeks, when the score has been within one possession, Dallas has run the ball on 49.5 percent of its offensive plays, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

One-possession contests represent neutral situations that should give us insight into a team's true run-pass preferences; over the past two weeks, only the Houston Texans have been more run-oriented in these neutral situations.

The Pats have beefed up their front in expectation of a run-heavy start to the game from Dallas, trading for Akiem Hicks from New Orleans and promoting second-year defensive tackle Khyri Thornton from the practice squad. However, while Joseph Randle has broken off a few big runs, Dallas' run game over has been rather pedestrian in comparison with 2014's league-leading attack. The Cowboys are averaging 4.1 yards per carry (17th overall) and rank ninth in rushing DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

Dallas' offseason gamble was that its superb offensive line could compensate for DeMarco Murray's departure, and though the sample size is still small, the early returns haven't validated that theory. However, in breaking down the Cowboys' running game in a deep-dive film piece, Football Outsiders' Ben Muth suggests that chemistry between Randle and the O-line could be the source of the running game's early-season regression:

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I mentioned a couple of times that it doesn't look like Randle trusts that the backside is going to be there. A big part of that is that Randle doesn't have a lot of reps running this play in game situations with this line.

The thing about outside zone is that it's tough to get a good look during practice because most teams don't allow their linemen to cut block in camp or practices, so the backs can't get used to what it's going to feel like hitting the hole right as guys get cut. In practice it's just a mass of bodies too often. I'm sure running backs coach Gary Brown (once a pretty good NFL runner himself) is hammering Randle to get his foot in the ground and stick it up in there this week, and once he starts seeing some success he'll start doing it more and more.

"

In general, my suspicion is that the offensive line has contributed more to Randle's sporadic success than the running back himself. Against Atlanta, for instance, Randle rushed for 85 yards on his first three carries of the game, often galloping to daylight through yawning chasms the offensive line had created:

That type of play is obviously a massive success, but it also requires virtually no acumen from the running back. Perhaps it's no surprise then that inconsistency has plagued the Dallas running game: The Cowboys rank first in first-half yards per carry at 5.5, nearly a full half-yard better than the second-best rushing team over the game's first 30 minutes. But like the Monstars from Space Jam, the Cowboys rushing attack has completely disappeared in the second half, as Dallas' 2.6 yards-per-carry average ranks dead last.

The chasm doesn't really get any wider, and much of that has stemmed from Randle's own maddening inconsistency. There was speculation that Dallas could bench Randle after he nearly fumbled while attempting to leap over the goal line for the second straight week, but it appears the third-year back will have his lease on the starting job extended for at least one more game:

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Garrett said there will be no change at running back. Joseph Randle remains the starter

— Clarence Hill (@clarencehilljr) October 7, 2015"

If the Pats can remain disciplined in their rush lanes, they should force Dallas into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations. Randle has been a boom-or-bust back thus far, as he has eight carries that have gone for negative yardage, tied for eighth-most among all running backs. The Patriots' game plan is easier said than done against Dallas' stellar offensive line, though, even with all the depth New England boasts along its front seven.

Thus, we might expect more of a base package game on Sunday, not unlike what the Patriots employed against a similarly run-oriented Buffalo Bills squad in Week 2. Typically on passing downs, Weeden has seen blitz looks and press coverage from opposing defenses in an effort to speed up his already shaky grasp of progression passing.

Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower double A-gap blitz looks have become a staple in recent renditions of the New England offense. Given what we know about Dallas' limitations in the passing game, we should expect to see plenty of disguised pressure looks to confuse Weeden.

Key Players and Matchups

Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.

Ryan Wendell

The senior member of the interior offensive line figures to make his season debut this week after missing the first three games with an undisclosed illness. Having the bye week figures to help Wendell regain whatever strength he may have lost during his sickness, which could potentially allow New England to deploy him on an every-snap basis. Where he plays is more of a mystery, but right guard would make sense, given that Josh Kline and David Andrews have been fairly steady at left guard and center, respectively.

Dallas figures to utilize Hardy a bit in interior rush situations, while Tyrone Crawford has made a name for himself as an underrated 3-technique rusher. No matter where Wendell lines up, he'll also figure to help the rookie Andrews with protection assignments amid a hostile environment.

Chandler Jones 

The weak side edge-rusher will draw the toughest assignment of any Patriots lineman on Sunday, dealing with uber-athletic Dallas left tackle Tyron Smith. Jones typically possesses the length and quickness advantage over most left tackles, but the All-Pro Smith has harnessed his unique blend of size and lower-body agility to become one of the most impenetrable blindside protectors in the league.

Thus, New England's pressure will most likely come from interior blitz looks and whatever pressure the defensive tackles generate. It might behoove the Pats to get Jones some looks at the 3-technique, where neither Ronald Leary nor Travis Frederick has the size to consistently neutralize Jones. Dallas will likely protect Weeden with quick defined reads, but when he does need to extend plays, keep an eye on where Jones lines up along the line.

Danny Amendola

The former undrafted rookie began his career as a Hard Knocks sensation in Dallas, so this game represents a homecoming of sorts for Amendola. In addition, the slot receiver should also have a chance to build off a stellar Week 3 showing after remaining largely silent through the Pats' first two games.

After accruing just three catches through New England's first two games, Amendola caught all five of his targets for 39 yards and Brady's 400th touchdown against Jacksonville. He'll receive a favorable matchup against Cowboys slot corner Tyler Patmon, who has largely struggled in an extended role following Orlando Scandrick's season-ending torn ACL. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski will remain the focal points of the offense, but expect Amendola to play an important complementary role.

Tarell Brown

Brown is the shakiest bet to have any impact on the game, as the veteran has dealt with lower-body issues dating back to training camp and the preseason. However, when healthy, he has been an every-down player at right corner opposite Malcolm Butler.

Brown is still on the injury report this week, so the bye week didn't appear to fully heal whatever undisclosed issue he is dealing with. The Pats can survive against Dallas' subpar receiving corps sans Dez Bryant, though the Cowboys might test undrafted rookie Justin Coleman heavily at some point.

Prediction

People who are looking for any linkage between this Patriots squad and the 16-0 team in 2007 will remember that New England also visited Dallas that season. In a much-hyped "Duel in the Dome," the Pats dominated in the second half en route to a 21-point victory over a Cowboys team that would eventually finish 13-3.

The possibility exists for a similarly prolific offensive outing from this year's New England team, given the injuries Dallas has suffered. The 2015 Cowboys certainly aren't on the same level as their predecessors from eight seasons ago, and though the NFC East's general mediocrity could keep Dallas in playoff contention through December, the talent gap between the two teams is wide at the moment.

No team rolls through a 16-game schedule, and the Patriots do have deficiencies that could prove fatal against the wrong opponent. The Cowboys are unlikely to represent that kind of opposition, however, which should help New England become the sixth 4-0 team of the season.

Prediction: Patriots 36, Cowboys 26