Hermes Franca vs. Tyson Griffin
Analysis My Take
(155lbs/70kg)
Hermes Franca
19-7-0 
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt that is very dangerous from anywhere
+Decent striking
+Decent force behind strikes
-Poor wrestling
-Sloppy striker; still a grappler
Tyson Griffin
13-2-0
+Good wrestler
+Good striker
+Very good submission defense, having never been submitted even against BJJ black belts
-Poor finishing ability
-Mediocre sub game
A good wrestler with submission defense is kryptonite to the pure grappler, as Franca's fights with Sherk and Edgar testify to. Griffin is more of the same, having never been submitted and having wrestling experience, albeit less than that of those two.
Griffin's striking should be enough for Franca, but not by a wide margin. Franca's striking has been steadily improving always.
Griffin will decide where the fight takes place, but I'm not sure what he'll do; he has a slight advantage everywhere from what I see. Perhaps he'll test the striking, and turn to wrestling if things become unfavourable.
Gotta go with Griffin, I think he'll do enough to get the nod from the judges.
Griffin enters at 1.35, while Franca is at 3.25, so Griffin isn't worth much by himself, but I'd be sure enough to back him in a multiplier.
(170lbs/77kg)
Josh Koscheck
12 - 4 - 0
+Excellent wrestler, being a four-time NCAA Division I All American wrestler at 174lbs, and finishing first in 2001
+Some very good ground and pound
+Knockout power
+Excellent submission defense
+Great cardio
-Lacks submission skills
-Suffers from "wrestler striking," very basic and telegraphed
Frank Trigg
19 - 6 - 0
+Good ground and pound
-Sluggish striking
-Slow takedown shots
-Poor submission defense
Frank Trigg has never lost to someone he shouldn't have, but he has struggled severely against the top competition in his class. Koscheck has fallen in status since his losses to Thiago Alves and Paulo Thiago, but is still in the upper class of the welterweight division.
Koscheck is a better wrestler than Trigg, and since his disastrous TKO loss to Paulo, I think it's likely he'll go back to his wrestling roots. Trigg is a lot older than when Hughes beat him, and Koscheck pretty much has all of what Matt Hughes had back then.
The one advantage Trigg has is in submissions, but I doubt it will be useful to him against someone of Koscheck's skill, and striking, I'm not sure that Koscheck doesn't have an advantage also.
Can't see this any other way than a Koscheck win, probably by TKO in the second.
Koscheck is at 1.20 while Trigg is at 4.00, which is correct. I'll take Koscheck as part of the multiplier.
(170lbs/77kg)
Martin Kampmann
15 - 2 - 0
+Good submission skills
+Good clinch
+Solid jaw
+Good Muay Thai
-Lax striking defense
-Not a one hit KO artist
Paul Daley
21 - 8 - 2
+Excellent Thai Boxer
+Extremely hard hitter, with 16 of his 21 wins coming by (T)KO
+Decent sprawl
-Bad ground game, and his single submission win comes from "punches to the body"
-No aggressive wrestling
Kampmann is the definition of well rounded, with good submission skill, quality wrestling, and good stand up, without really being fantastic in any area.
Daley is sort of one dimensional, but is an extremely dangerous striker, as his KO percentage testifies. His sprawl is pretty good, but whether it will be able to repel Kampmann's wrestling is a toss up.
Kampmann can survive the striking portion a lot better than Daley can survive on his back, but I'd give a big striking edge to Daley, both in terms of power and technique.
My Take
I'll guess Kampmann by sub in the first, but Daley is a very dangerous underdog.
Kampmann is 1.20, while Daley is 4.00. Interesting, but I'll still take Kampmann with Griffin and Koscheck.
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