Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts head to Houston to take on the Texans in the Week 5 Thursday night matchup and hope to have Andrew Luck back under center to start in his hometown.

The Colts evened their record with a 16-13 overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday and will play their third straight AFC South opponent. They have won 15 in a row versus divisional foes, going 12-2-1 against the spread.

Point spread: This game opened off the board at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark due to Luck's uncertain status. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.2-19.4 Texans

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis is 5-0 straight-up in the last five meetings with Houston and 4-0-1 ATS, but Luck obviously played a huge role in the outcome of those games. Without him, at least backup Matt Hasselbeck provides the team with veteran leadership and experience. Hasselbeck was solid filling in for Luck last week, completing 30 of 47 passes for 282 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.

With Luck expected to return from a short break to rest his sore shoulder, though, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Colts get one of the NFL’s top signal-callers back. Luck led a furious rally against the Tennessee Titans in the fourth quarter to notch their first victory in Week 3. His teammates respond to his play, and that’s why they can cover with him on the field.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Whether it’s Hasselbeck or Luck who gets the start for Indy, the Texans will either be facing a rusty veteran or an injured star who will not be 100 percent even if he does play. At least Houston head coach Bill O’Brien knows who his starter will be, as he has already proclaimed Ryan Mallett will get the nod despite his struggles, according to ESPN's Tania Ganguli.

While that may be disappointing news to some, it should give Mallett some confidence knowing his coach still believes in him and is willing to stick with him for this prime-time game.

The truth is, Mallett did not get much help from his teammates early on in last week’s 48-21 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons, with backup Brian Hoyer doing all of his damage in relief against a defense that was staked to a 42-0 lead. Texans running back Arian Foster should also be primed to bounce back from a dismal debut with just 10 rushing yards in his first start after recovering from a groin injury suffered during training camp.

Smart pick

This pick definitely comes down to whether or not Luck plays. If he does, it’s an easy choice to take the Colts to cover based solely on his past history in the series. If he does not, the Texans will have a great shot to win the game because they will be emotionally charged up, and the Jaguars nearly beat Indianapolis at home last week.

Betting trends

The Colts are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Texans.

The total has gone under in 10 of the Colts’ last 11 games.

The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six divisional games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.