TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Odds, Analysis, Football Pick

Texas Christian is a solid road outfit, winning six of its last seven and 31 of its last 39 away from home. But the Frogs are also only 5-7 against the spread over their last dozen road games and 3-10 ATS the last 13 times they've been favored on the road. TCU is favored on the road for Saturday night's clash with Kansas State in Manhattan.

Point spread: Horned Frogs opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.7-23.4 Horned Frogs

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs are 5-0 this season and hitting on all cylinders, following last week's 50-7 trouncing of Texas. TCU led 30-0 after the first quarter and probably could have put up 70 on the beleaguered Longhorns. The Frogs outgained Texas 604-313, ran for 228 yards, and quarterback Trevone Boykin continued his Heisman run by throwing five touchdown passes.

Two weeks ago, TCU scored 55 points in topping Texas Tech; just before that, it put up 56 in a win over SMU; and just before that, it piled 70 points on Stephen F. Austin.

Texas Christian is chasing a berth in the College Football Playoff and not only needs wins, but they have to be convincing. A close victory is almost considered a loss, and as the Frogs learned last year, there's very little room for error.

Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

After three straight victories to begin this season, the Wildcats just suffered their first loss, a 36-34 decision at ranked Oklahoma State. Kansas State led almost the entire game, fell behind late, regained the lead, then lost on a field goal with 30 seconds to go. But on the day, the 'Cats out-rushed the Cowboys 144-49, held the ball for almost 35 minutes and covered as seven-point road dogs.

Kansas State won its first three games this season by a combined score of 103-36 and has out-rushed every opponent by an average of 95 yards per game. Usually winning the ground battle by margins like that leads to wins and covers.

The Wildcats under head coach Bill Snyder are always a dangerous outfit because they're usually so fundamentally sound and well-coached. Kansas State is also 5-1 ATS its last six times out as a home dog.

Smart pick

TCU is the better team in this matchup, playing on the road, where the spread is more amenable. So despite the recent trends, the smart money here is giving the points with the Frogs.

Betting trends

TCU is 13-0 SU in its last 13 games.

TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in October.

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.