Everything You Need to Know About the Toronto Raptors' 2015-16 NBA Season
The past two seasons have netted the Toronto Raptors a pair of Atlantic Division titles and two franchise-record win totals.
But they also produced two first-round exits, exposing problems with experience and imbalance. The Raptors attacked both fronts over the summer.
They were tilted far too heavily toward the offensive end in 2014-15, ranking third in efficiency there but 23rd at the opposite side. Considering it typically takes a top-10 standing at both ends to contend for the NBA crown, Toronto had a clear motive driving its roster remodeling.
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With familiar scorers and fresh defensive stoppers now both on board, the Raptors are eager to find out whether they're ready for more than regular-season success.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: DeMarre Carroll (free agent), Cory Joseph (free agent), Bismack Biyombo (free agent), Delon Wright (draft), Luis Scola (free agent), Norman Powell (draft), Anthony Bennett (free agent)
- Subtractions: Lou Williams (free agent), Greivis Vasquez (trade), Amir Johnson (free agent), Tyler Hansbrough (free agent), Chuck Hayes (free agent), Landry Fields (unsigned), Greg Stiemsma (free agent)
The challenge of fixing a leaky defense dictated the Raptors' offseason direction. They invested nearly $100 million in the DeMarre Carroll-Cory Joseph-Bismack Biyombo trio, and they left the draft with a pair of defensive-minded guards in Delon Wright and Norman Powell.
Carroll is Toronto's prized summer pull, and expectations could not be higher with his four-year, $60 million deal looming overhead. He spent the past two seasons as the Atlanta Hawks' jack-of-all-trades, leaving his imprint at both ends. But he'll have to handle Toronto's toughest defensive test while creating more of his own scoring chances, as he's moving from the top team in assist percentage to the 28th.
The Raptors will need internal improvements to help offset their offensive departures. Between Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez and Amir Johnson, Toronto lost more than 34 points per game. But there's a hope that coming home could spur Toronto natives Joseph and Anthony Bennett, the No. 1 pick in 2013, to previously unseen levels of production.
Storylines to Watch
Fixing their problematically penetrable defense is the first step toward changing their fortune.
Nearly all of the newcomers should help close some of those gaps, and the improvements don't have to stop there. This rotation could get a lot longer and more athletic if coach Dwane Casey can find the right roles for 23-year-old 7-footer Lucas Nogueira and 6'9" 20-year-old Bruno Caboclo (and his 7'7" wingspan).
But the defensive gains can't come at the offense's expense. Despite its lofty standing, this attack doesn't have a great margin for error. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan spend too much time in the mid-range, and neither shot even 42 percent from the field last season. The Raptors need to replace the three-point shooting of Williams and Vasquez, and they'd be wise to squeeze what they can out of Jonas Valanciunas.
Toronto rewarded its 7'0" center with a four-year, $64 million contract extension in August. The former No. 5 pick has improved during each of his three seasons with the Raptors, but he has yet to dominate consistently. His stat sheet suggests ample room for growth, but he has to defend well enough to earn major minutes, and his teammates must do a better job of finding him underneath.
"The Raptors need more from Valanciunas than to simply justify his contract," wrote ESPN Insider Bradford Doolittle. "They need for him to become the kind of bedrock, two-way center that the Raptors can lean on in the postseason."
X-Factor
The difficulty of the Raptors' current aim—leaping from good to borderline great without a superstar—is so incredible that all of the players on the roster could qualify as X-factors. But fourth-year swingman Terrence Ross best fits the label's traditional definition. He has freakish natural gifts and is a one-man highlight reel when his stars align. But his three-point shot and defensive effort are both marred by inconsistency.
With Carroll on board, Ross can settle into an instant-offense reserve role. If steady scoring improves his focus at the other end, he could be an effective two-way player. But time is of the essence. Not only are the Raptors built to win sooner rather than later, but the 24-year-old is also entering a contract season.
"Offensively, he can fill it up real quick. And he also can guard," Carroll said, via Eric Koreen of the National Post. "It's one of those things where Terrence is going to be put in a role where he really has to display his talents and show everybody who he really is."
Making the Leap
There's plenty to like about Raptors newcomer Cory Joseph, and the fact he hails from the city is only a small portion of it. He has 41 playoff appearances under his belt, a world championship to his name (2013-14 with the San Antonio Spurs) and last season he ranked eighth among point guards with a 0.93 defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com.
But even in the NBA's new economy, $30 million is a lot to spend on someone with a career average of 14.9 minutes per game. He never had an opportunity this great in the Alamo City, but he's also never operated outside of the Spurs' proven system.
The Raptors need him to not only match his previous production but to surpass it. He should get all the playing time he can handle both behind and alongside Lowry. Joseph's dogged defense should easily travel north of the border, but his new contract demands significant growth as a scorer, outside shooter and distributor.
Best-Case Scenario
The Raptors have been nipping at the heels of the East's elite, and the pieces appear set for them to crash that party. Lowry's dramatic weight loss should better handle the rigors of an 82-game campaign, and DeRozan's stats just need quality to match his quantity. A more-involved Valanciunas and unleashed Carroll give Toronto substantial two-way potential.
The blueprint for a dream season is simple: stay healthy and improve the defense without regressing at the opposite end. If a few of their prospects pan out, the Raptors should be deep enough to traverse the first two playoff rounds. They'd be underdogs in a conference finals bout with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but one untimely injury on Goliath's side could push David through to the championship round.
Worst-Case Scenario
Lowry once again loses steam down the stretch, and DeRozan's field-goal percentage continues its two-year slide. Valanciunas starves for touches on offense and struggles to protect the paint the other way. Carroll and Joseph both appear to be products of their former systems, and none of the youngsters are ready for the bright lights.
The Raptors still manage to take the Atlantic Division title, but their win total takes a hit. The new postseason format renders the division crown meaningless, and Toronto starts its playoff run on the road. An all-too-familiar tale plays out from there, as the Raptors once again falter in the first round and face uncomfortable questions of whether this core can ever contend.
Predictions
The Raptors' offseason strategy revolved around winning elements: defense and ball movement. The reigning champion Golden State Warriors ranked first in defensive efficiency and second in assist percentage last season, and Toronto made focused moves to improve its standing in both areas.
Toronto's offensive attack should remain versatile. Lowry and DeRozan are both capable of finding buckets in isolation sets, and Valanciunas can manufacture his points from the post. Carroll, Joseph and veteran Luis Scola should all help generate a better flow (ditto for Wright, if he gets enough minutes). A sixth-man spot could be the perfect showcase for Ross' talents.
But this still doesn't quite resemble a full-fledged contender. The Raptors haven't proved they can win when it really matters, and they're asking career complementary players in Carroll, Joseph and Biyombo to help change the organization's identity.
Barring injury, regular-season success still feels like a given. In fact, don't be surprised to see Toronto post a new high mark in wins—and then finally shatter its first-round ceiling. But the star power isn't strong enough to carry this club beyond the conference semis.
- Final Record: 51-31
- Division Standing: First in Atlantic
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Eastern Conference semifinals
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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