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One of the hot topics of debate of late in the Braves' nation has been what the Braves should do with their pitching surplus and somewhat anemic.
The near-consensus on this topic has been to trade Javier Vazquez and his all-time high value for a big-time bat.
While this would be awesome (I have been a supporter), I have really though hard about the Brave's situation going into 2010 and have put together this September 19 edition of my offseason plans for the Atlanta Braves.
We'll call this one the starting-pitching friendly scenario.
Keep in mind that I know that I have said different things in the past, this is just food for thought.
I'll break down the moves into four parts: free agent departures, trade chips, free agent acquisitions/players retained, and the whole roster.
Keep in mind that the Braves' 2009 MLB salary was $96,726,167—11th in the Majors and third in their division.
Free Agent Departures/Players Non-Tendered
If I were GM and chose to take this route, I would let the following guys hit the open market (their salary for 2009, which is coming off the books, will be included in parenthesis).
Rafael Soriano ($6.5 MM)
Mike Gonzalez ($3.5 MM)
Kelly Johnson ($2.8 MM)
Buddy Carlyle ($425 K)
Greg Norton ($800 K)
Garret Anderson ($2.5 MM)
That frees up about $16.53 MM to improve the team elsewhere.
I feel like each of these players will end up being, overpaid (Soriano, Gonzalez), become unvaluable assets to the team (Greg Norton, Buddy Carlyle, Kelly Johnson), or block some of the youthful talent coming through the organization (Garret Anderson).
Trade Chips
The following players are players that should be put on the open market (in parenthesis, I will include their salary and return I would expect). I will also make the moves I THINK will happen in BOLD.
Kenshin Kawakami ($7 MM, plus AA arm, good INF A or AA prospect, taker takes on at least half of Kenshin's 2010 salary)
Martin Prado ($415 K, plus plus INF A or AA prospect OR arm)
Javier Vazquez ($11.5 MM, big bat, good prospects OR top 3B prospect, and other good-great prospects, taker takes on entire salary)
Derek Lowe ($15 MM, plus plus AA arm-Kris Medlen-ish, good INF prospect, full salary relief)
Nate McLouth (2.5 MM, same thing the Braves gave away for him: good OF prospect and a couple descent pitching prospects)
My predicted moves free up an additional $7.42 MM.
Prado has value for a team with a hole in the infield looking for a slap-hitting, moderately-well defending, young option.
Plus, his value as a trade chip may never be higher than after the break-out season he's had (he was never profiled to be an everyday player).
Kenshin Kawakami is, in my opinion, the second-most valuable (touchable) trade chip.
His $7 MM salary is fair for a number three or four (which he would be in a lot of rotations) starter.
I could see Kawakami being traded for OK, not great, prospects; but that's not the purpose of a Kawakmi trade.
The intent behind it would be salary and room relief for an already crowded Braves rotation.
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