San Diego St. (-3.0) 28 IDAHO 24
Idaho looks like an improved team this season, as quarterback Nathan Enderle has looked good (61% completions and 8.5 yards per attempt) after two horrible seasons at the helm.
While Idaho's offense looks improved, their defense is still a huge question mark and is likely to be exploited in this game by San Diego State's Ryan Lindley. Lindley had a pretty good freshman season before getting injured and he's averaged 7.0 yards per pass play in two games this season, one against a very good UCLA defense and one against a very bad Southern Utah defense. Overall, Lindley rates above average after compensating for his opposition and he should feast on an Idaho secondary that has surrendered 8.1 yards per pass play to New Mexico State and Washington, who are about average as a group throwing the ball.
The Aztecs look to have an underrated defense under former New Mexico coach Rocky Long, who always fielded good defenses with sub-par talent with the Lobos.
My ratings favor San Diego State by 7 1/2 points, so I'll lean with the Aztecs here even though they apply to a negative 54-113-5 ATS situation.
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