UFC Fight Night 75: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Three weeks ago it was flyweights headlining the action, but now we hit the opposite end of the spectrum as heavyweights Josh Barnett and Roy Nelson get set to throw hands for our enjoyment in the UFC Fight Night 75 main event.
Barnett hasn't seen the inside of the cage since December 2013, and Nelson is just 1-4 in his previous five outings. Nevertheless, they sit as the No. 8 and No. 11-ranked contenders in the division, respectively. A win on Saturday puts one of them right back in the mix.
But that's not all that's happening in Saitama this weekend.
The UFC main card features five more contests. There will be plenty of fisticuffs for our pleasure on this main card, and it should be a night filled with action. Each of the bouts offers something of note, but who do the Bleacher Report experts like to win? Let's take a look.
Staff Records
1 of 7
That disappointed look on Barnett's face must have come directly after viewing my pathetic record. I've let him down. All year long I boasted how I would be leading this team, and as soon as I am added, I tank. There I sit on the bottom of the board.
After a 5-0 clean sweep of UFC 191, Craig Amos sits in the catbird seat with Steven Rondina nipping at his heels. This is how everyone stands after two events.
Amos: 5-0 (9-2 overall)
Rondina: 5-0 (8-3)
Harris: 4-1 (7-4)
Snowden: 3-2 (6-5)
McCarter: 2-3 (5-6)
Mizuto Hirota vs. Teruto Ishihara
2 of 7
Scott Harris
If Hirota isn't your sentimental favorite, I don't know what to tell you. He's a longtime veteran of Asian MMA but has yet to rack up a win in the UFC. He'll have a tough time against Ishihara, a brazen young knockout artist who is looking for a high-profile belt notch. Sorry, sentimental favorite. I have to sound the upset alarms.
Ishihara, TKO, Rd. 1
Jonathan Snowden
When Hirota takes a tentative step outside the tiny arenas in Japan where he's a consistent wrecking ball, he's quickly recalled to the DEEPs and Shootos of the MMA scene. His record in big shows? A paltry 2-5. The UFC, however, was kind enough to bring the kind of fighter he normally steamrolls into the Octagon. Hirota has power in both hands, and he'll put it on the younger man before the night is through.
Hirota, TKO, Rd. 3
Craig Amos
Hirota is the more experienced of these two knockout-loving fighters. He's competed more often and on bigger stages than Ishihara. It'll be competitive, but the veteran will notch the win, either by late stoppage or decision.
Hirota, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Hirota is a 34-year-old bantamweight who washed out of the UFC in 2013 following losses to Pat Healy, Rani Yahya and freakin' Rodrigo Damm. While Ishihara isn't exactly a sure thing, there are just too many red flags around Hirota to pick him over any serviceable opponent.
Ishihara, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
One of the overlooked pieces to this fight is that Ishihara hasn't competed in MMA since June 2014. That's more than a year outside the cage, and he will be making his UFC debut. That's a lot to ask of a 24-year-old against a scrappy vet. Ishihara could flash brilliance, but Hirota's savvy guides him to a decision.
Hirota, unanimous decision
Katsunori Kikuno vs. Diego Brandao
3 of 7
Harris
Kikuno is a strange fighter, employing lots of wacky strikes and, sometimes, that wild "zombie" stance. I don't feel like Brando is going to stand for those kinds of shenanigans. He's too thick and strong for Kikuno and should be able to get this to the ground and keep it there until the stoppage.
Brandao, TKO, Rd. 2
Snowden
When the final bell rings on this show, this will be the fight everyone will be talking about. Brandao will try to bring the heat early. Kikuno, in his wacky karate stance, will weather the storm and look to unleash his accurate punches and brutal body kicks. It's a battle of science and violence. I'll go with the dork.
Kikuno, TKO, Rd. 3
Amos
Both Brandao and Kikuno flash tremendous ability at times and leave you scratching your head at others, giving this contest a feel of a couple of underachievers going at it. If Brandao fights smart, and that's a big if, he should come out with the W.
Brandao, unanimous decision
Rondina
Brandao is a headcase, but Kikuno just plain isn't a great fighter. Look for Brandao to steamroll him in the early stages of the bout before he has the chance to whiff his way to an empty gas tank.
Brandao, TKO, Rd. 2
McCarter
The fight against Conor McGregor was a turning point for Brandao. He learned a lot from that experience, and Kikuno shouldn't be the kind of fighter he loses to. Punishing leg kicks are the key for Brandao. He'll hurt the lead leg and then crack an immobile Kikuno for the finish.
Brandao, KO, Rd. 2
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Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Chico Camus
4 of 7
Harris
It's sad that Camus remains a "stranger," if you will, to many fight fans. He's a really good stand-up fighter, but tends to find himself in attrition-type decisions, which take some of the luster off his skill set. Horiguchi has yet to prove himself as the sky-high sort of prospect he was originally touted to be, but he should have enough to outlast Camus in his first fight since losing to champ Demetrious Johnson.
Horiguchi, unanimous decision
Snowden
Are we all doing Camus references here? Let me give it a shot: something, something, absurdist reference, Caligula. Good enough? I'd have given it a better effort if I didn't think the other guy was going to win.
Horiguchi, unanimous decision
Amos
Camus has shown pretty well as a UFC fighter, but he hasn't been able to notch a signature win. Horiguchi would serve, but the Japanese fighter isn't likely to capitulate coming off a disappointing title loss—and in his home country, no less.
Horiguchi, unanimous decision
Rondina
Camus put in a solid effort against Henry Cejudo, but that doesn't mean he isn't the division's gatekeeper for the middle tier. Unless Horiguchi's mental game was completely derailed by his ill-fated title shot, look for the youngster to take this one without too much trouble.
Horiguchi, unanimous decision
McCarter
This will be Horiguchi's first fight since coming up well short against Demetrious Johnson, and he doesn't get an easy draw. Camus is tough but unfortunately got thrown into the deep end of the pool right away. Horiguchi should win going away, but Camus is a bit too tough to get finished.
Horiguchi, unanimous decision
Takeya Mizugaki vs. George Roop
5 of 7
Harris
This may be a must-win situation for Mizugaki, seeing as how a defeat would be his dreaded third straight. But he'll have enough boxing acumen to outpoint Roop in exchanges and perhaps wear out his rail-thin opponent in the clinch.
Mizugaki, unanimous decision
Snowden
The 6'1" Roop is quite a sight to behold at 135 pounds. He'll have six inches of height on Mizugaki, which certainly can't hurt when engaging at distance. Against the cage, however, all men are equal. Look for Mizugaki to try to push Roop up to the chain link and punish him there.
Mizugaki, unanimous decision
Amos
Mizugaki is an incredibly consistent fighter. He loses to upper-echelon fighters but always holds serve against the field. Roop is more the field. Mizugaki takes what should be a fairly competitive match.
Mizugaki, unanimous decision
Rondina
Roop is a lot better than he is given credit for, but there are few better than Mizugaki when it comes to scoring points with judges. Look for him to get a hometown unanimous decision at the end of a close fight.
Mizugaki, unanimous decision
McCarter
Mizugaki really only loses to the elite, and Roop isn't that. Roop also has a penchant for forgetting he can establish distance and then gets blasted hard. Mizugaki finds his range and ends Roop.
Mizugaki, KO, Rd. 1
Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah Hall
6 of 7
Harris
That highlight-reel The Ultimate Fighter knockout may have done more harm than good for Hall. It set the bar too high, and he's been straining to approach it ever since. Meanwhile, the well-rounded Mousasi has consistently struggled with top-level fighters while handling those below him. Guess where Hall is.
Mousasi, unanimous decision
Snowden
Hall looks pretty good when the opponent across the cage sports a name like Oluwale Bamgbose. But Mousasi is no Bamgbose. While you can never completely write Hall off because of his pure power, Mousasi should cruise here.
Mousasi, unanimous decision
Amos
Hall owns four UFC wins, but he's never beaten anyone who so much as sniffs at Mousasi's level. Mousasi wins by one-sided decision.
Mousasi, unanimous decision
Rondina
The Shin Akuma version of Hall might be able to take on Mousasi. Maybe. There's no guarantee that he will show up, though, and even if he does, Mousasi is still one of the toughest men at 185 pounds.
Mousasi, unanimous decision
McCarter
A gut feeling says to put Mousasi on upset alert, but then common sense kicks in. Mousasi will wear Hall down on the feet with body shots and on the ground as he smothers him. Eventually, Mousasi will take a choke to force the tap.
Mousasi, submission, Rd. 1
Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson
7 of 7
Harris
This could have been an entertaining bout, if Nelson hadn't forgotten how to grapple some time during the second Bush administration. Nelson will be wildly popular so long as he's in the spotlight, because he's just that kind of guy. But this old man will get played by the other old man in Barnett.
Barnett, unanimous decision
Snowden
The last time Barnett stepped into the Octagon, it was 2013. That's kind of a big deal. Ring rust is real, especially if the rusted parts also have 37 years of wear and tear. If he was fighting someone else, I'd be really worried here. But Nelson just doesn't have the appropriate size to put his ham hands on a big heavyweight like Barnett.
Barnett, submission, Rd. 2
Amos
I'm less confident in Barnett than the oddsmakers seem to be, but I'm picking him all the same. Nelson is always a danger to land that one punch, but Barnett has dealt with hard hitters before.
Barnett, unanimous decision
Rondina
Nelson can punch a man's soul out, but he also tires quickly and struggles against anyone capable of sticking to a game plan. It is hard to imagine this fight going anywhere but to the cage, where The Warmaster will use his veteran savvy and tough-to-prepare-for catch wrestling to frustrate, fluster and fatigue Nelson en route to a wheezy decision.
Barnett, unanimous decision
McCarter
I'm finding it difficult to see how this goes to a decision unless both men are so tired they slog around the cage for the final two rounds, and that's certainly possible with heavyweight MMA. Nelson can end this fight with one blow, but Barnett will be too wise to get caught. Barnett will break Nelson down round by round with his wrestling and catch an exhausted tired Nelson with a submission in the final frame.
Barnett, submission, Rd. 5
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