Jaguars vs. Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?
When the talent gap between two teams is as wide on paper as the chasm between the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars, it becomes tempting for the favorite to overlook its flaws. For all the positive press that has emerged during New England's 2-0 start, no team, including the Patriots, has everything figured out at this stage of the season.
So while the Pats have nearly everything pointing in their favor during Sunday's contest at Gillette Stadium, that doesn't mean New England can afford to regress against an inexperienced Jags team that remains a mystery to most of the league.
.jpg?w=256 "Titans Camp Football")
The run game remains a struggle for the Pats on both sides of the ball, and a Jacksonville team that averaged a robust 8.3 yards per pass last week will surely seek to exploit a secondary that has had its fair share of leakages early on.
Being on the right end of the scoreboard will be New England's top priority, of course, but Sunday's game also serves as a quarter-pole checkpoint for the state of the roster before the Pats enter their early Week 4 bye. Turning to the film, let's dissect the Patriots' most glaring current weaknesses and where they can exploit the Jags to take care of business this weekend.
Offensive Game Plan
Through the first two weeks of the season, only five teams have been more pass happy on offense than the Patriots, who have thrown the ball on just under 71 percent of their offensive plays. The strengths and weaknesses of Jacksonville's callow defense are probably a mystery to most Patriots fans, but the Jags' statistical profile would suggest another game in which the Pats lean on Tom Brady.
Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which represents an opponent-adjusted measure of success rate, ranks the Jaguars second overall against the run but just 18th against the pass.
There aren't any opponent adjustments yet, since FO doesn't add those until after Week 4, but Jacksonville's last opponents, the Miami Dolphins, ranked second in rushing offense last season. Nonetheless, teams are currently averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt against the Jags, the second-lowest mark in the league behind only the Dallas Cowboys.
The Patriots would surely like to add the ground game to diversify their offense, but New England's gap-blocking scheme might not be the best stylistic matchup against Jacksonville. Gus Bradley's defense is built upon an aggressive one-gapping four-man front, and that extends to how it plays the run.
Through the first two weeks, the most glaring observation about Jacksonville's run defense is how much penetration the line gets, particularly on the interior:
Neither defender who got deepest into the backfield actually tackled the ball-carrier, but in both plays, the running back's initial read was blown up and he was forced to widen his run toward the awaiting pack of Jaguars. On paper, the most obvious solution to this issue is to install misdirection within run calls to punish the defense for its aggressive upfield pursuit.
One potential wrinkle is the trap play, which the Patriots ran here against Buffalo:
Essentially, the trap play invites an unblocked defender upfield, only for a pulling lineman from the other side of the formation to swoop in and close him off to open a lane for the back. In this particular instance, Josh Kline whiffed on Mario Williams, who subsequently stopped Dion Lewis for a short gain.
Nevertheless, the concept is sound and could be an example of a play call the Pats use to offset Jacksonville's penetration.
Of course, given the roll Tom Brady is currently on, the Patriots surely won't mind relying on the right arm of No. 12. Brady has had plenty of success in his career against Jacksonville (6-0 record, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 119.5 QB rating), but the Pats haven't faced the Jaguars since 2012, before the current coaching and front-office regime was in place. Thus, it's a mystery as to what the Pats will see from Bradley on Sunday.
The most logical step would be to examine the Super Bowl film from last February, as Bradley was the Seattle Seahawks' defensive coordinator before becoming Jacksonville's coach, but the Jags don't have the same speed at all three levels that forced New England to be exactly precise in that game. Jacksonville employs many of the same Cover 3 and hybrid front principles as Seattle, but the personnel simply can't execute in the same way.
That naturally leads to some deficiencies, and Jacksonville's bugaboo might be defending the seams. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jaguars are one of 11 defenses currently conceding over 10 yards per attempt on passes aimed over the middle of the field.
Third-year free safety Jonathan Cyprien has never been the most rangy defensive back, as he usually played down in the box during his first two seasons, and it's clear the defense doesn't have a natural single-high safety blanket who can protect overmatched linebackers and reserve corners from the slot:
Cyprien may not even be active due to a calf injury, which would leave either Josh Evans or rookie fourth-rounder James Sample in his place. Needless to say, the Patriots figure to give the Jags a heavy dose of Rob Gronkowski from inside slot alignments, forcing Jacksonville's deep-half defenders to play with more eye discipline and conviction. Given what we've seen so far, it's hard to imagine that pass won't be there all afternoon for Brady.
Defensive Game Plan
Most will focus on New England's league-worst 5.7 yards per carry allowed and wonder how the Patriots will fare against rookie starter T.J. Yeldon. However, for a David trying to knock off a Goliath, it doesn't make much sense for the Jaguars to lean on Yeldon, who has averaged a meager 3.3 yards per attempt thus far and has gotten the bulk of the touches largely because of injuries to Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart.
If Jacksonville wants to adopt a low-variance strategy, that isn't likely to generate many big plays, that's simply playing into New England's hands.
For the Jags to give themselves a realistic shot at this upset, they will need some huge plays to increase their margin for error and raise the game's variability. The most logical source of hope for this will be Allen Robinson, who shredded the Miami secondary last week for 155 yards and two scores on six catches.
Free safety Devin McCourty recently revealed to ESPN's Mike Reiss how the Pats have prioritized the promising second-year wide receiver in their game plan this week:
"That's definitely a focus for us; we can't just let the ball over our heads. I thought that's what really got them going offensively; the plays over the top were huge, especially to Robinson down the field. He was able to make some catches where two guys were all over him, or a guy was all over him. So it's not just being there, we have to go up and make plays too on the ball. They've shown they'll throw it and give him a chance.
"
Robinson didn't have a reputation as a perimeter burner coming out of Penn State, but the 6'3" receiver certainly has the size to win jump balls outside the numbers. On two big first-quarter plays last week, Blake Bortles appeared to underthrow his intended receiver, only for Robinson to snag a 50-50 ball by impressively high-pointing the pass over the defender:
You can't see it on the screenshot, but both those plays also came off of play action, which has worked well for the Jaguars thus far.
As I mentioned in last week's game plan preview against the Buffalo Bills, it's imperative that the Patriots take away the quarterback's first option on these plays that often come with predetermined, simplified reads. In nearly every case, especially when he's in a reduced split (i.e., closer to the line), look for Robinson to take off on a deep fade or post route.
Of course, these deep routes take plenty of time to develop, and the Pats shouldn't be content to let Bortles sit in the pocket and set his feet for those plays. According to the Football Outsiders Game Charting Project, the 2014 Jacksonville offense posted a horrid -75.4 percent DVOA on dropbacks where Bortles was blitzed, easily the worst figure in the league:
| Blake Bortles | JAC | -75.4% |
| Josh McCown | TB | -67.2% |
| Zach Mettenberger | TEN | -37.5% |
| Charlie Whitehurst | TEN | -33.3% |
| Derek Carr | OAK | -30.4% |
Though Bortles has made strides in his mechanics, it's hard to imagine the still-raw sophomore quarterback making enough plays under pressure to keep the Jaguars offense humming.
We should expect plenty A-gap blitzes from Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower, especially given that New England's linebackers aren't likely to have as many coverage responsibilities on Sunday. With Julius Thomas injured, Jacksonville tight ends have yet to garner even a single target this season.
Expect an aggressive defensive game plan that forces Bortles to speed up his internal clock, especially if the offense can build an early lead. Bortles unsurprisingly thrived when he wasn't sacked a single time for the first time in his career last game, so the Pats need to ensure they manufacture steady doses of pressure on Sunday.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much publicizing in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Logan Ryan
Given the hellacious deep ball issues Bradley Fletcher has continued to endure into 2014, it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots stuck with Logan Ryan as their third corner the entire game this week. Ryan already pulled ahead of Fletcher in playing time last week, playing 60 snaps to Fletcher's 19 against Buffalo, per Football Outsiders.
It'll be interesting to see who Ryan even covers, assuming he plays most of his snaps from the slot, as starting Jaguars slot receiver Rashad Greene is now on short-term injured reserve following a broken thumb suffered last week. Look for the third-year corner to see plenty of Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns on Sunday, especially if the Pats prefer to shadow Robinson with top corner Malcolm Butler.
Shaq Mason
Whereas Kline and David Andrews have become full-time starters on the line, the Patriots are still rotating rookies Shaq Mason and Tre' Jackson throughout the game. Last week, Mason started and played 57 snaps compared to just 27 for Jackson but appeared to struggle against Buffalo's stout interior.
Mason and the Patriots interior offensive line get the break of not facing Sen'Derrick Marks, Jacksonville's top defensive tackle, who is out while recovering from offseason ACL surgery. However, whether it's Mason or Jackson, see if either rookie can seize control of a starting guard job and at least give the coaching staff something to think about when Ryan Wendell returns to the lineup.
Sealver Siliga
Among New England's trio of big-bodied defensive tackles, Sealver Siliga (44 snaps) received more extended runs than Malcom Brown (21 snaps) or Alan Branch (25 snaps). The oft-injured nose tackle is New England's biggest body on the interior line, and with Vince Wilfork gone this year, it appears he's the Patriots' best run-stuffing hope.
Improving the run defense doesn't solely fall on Siliga's shoulders, of course, but do the Patriots consider giving more reps to Brown and/or Branch if the run defense struggles? The Jags shouldn't present nearly the same challenge as Buffalo did last week on the ground, but no one thought DeAngelo Williams would average over six yards per carry in Week 1, either.
Aaron Dobson
In a single week, Dobson exceeded his reception, yardage and snap totals from the entire 2014 season. The third-year receiver's seven-catch, 87-yard game may have been the best of his career when considering the opponent and the circumstances, which should lead to Dobson earning reps in New England's two-receiver packages moving forward.
But for a player who lived on the roster bubble this offseason, one strong performance does not equate to job security, something offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels implied this week. If Dobson can string together a second consecutive strong outing in a favorable matchup on paper, perhaps the Pats don't automatically relegate the former second-rounder to the bench when Brandon LaFell returns from the physically unable to perform list.
Prediction
There really isn't much suspense here; the Patriots are the superior team, and a Jacksonville win at Gillette Stadium would be a strong candidate for upset of the year. As encouraging as last week was for Bortles and the offense, Jacksonville's team-wide injury bug has only widened the talent gap between the two teams.
Perhaps unfamiliarity plays in the Jaguars' favor; a worst-case scenario for New England would be a game similar to the slopfest against the Cleveland Browns from the 2013 season, which the Pats only pulled out via a miraculous flurry in the final two minutes. Most Pats fans will remember Gronkowski's debilitating season-ending injury from that game, but it's easy to forget that New England hadn't scored before Gronk's injury and generally seemed lost throughout the afternoon.
The Patriots are likely to have a letdown at some point this season, if only because of human nature. But given their current early-season roll and the impending bye week, expect the Patriots to approach the game professionally and take care of business with relative ease.
Prediction: Patriots 37, Jaguars 25
.jpg?w=480 "Titans Camp Football")
.jpg?w=480 "49ers Eagles Football")
