Updated 2015 NASCAR Title Odds: Week 28
One week down, nine weeks to go, and the first set of odds for those 16 drivers in the Chase for the Sprint Cup are at hand.
The numbers aren’t all that surprising, considering how the opening Chase race played out this past Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway.
The only big hit of the 16 Chasers, of course, was Kevin Harvick, who comes into this weekend’s race in New Hampshire in last place.
Needless to say, Harvick has his work cut out for him, big-time. He has to forget about how many points he can earn in the next two races and focus on just one thing: win!
Let’s look at the odds heading into Loudon:
Clint Bowyer
1 of 16
Working in his favor: Clint Bowyer typically does well at New Hampshire. He needs at least back-to-back top-10 finishes this Sunday and at Dover to advance to the second round.
Working against him: Let’s face it, Michael Waltrip Racing has nine races left to its existence. While a team can have pride and want to go out with a bang, how many current employees are already splitting time between finishing out their final two months of work there, as well as looking for new jobs, which could be a distraction.
Odds: 75-1
Paul Menard
2 of 16
Working in his favor: Paul Menard and his team's can-do spirit is contagious. Plus, there’s the added incentive of being in his first-ever Chase. He doesn’t want to be a one (round)-and-done competitor. I like that kind of hunger in a driver.
Working against him: Admittedly, Menard did not get off to a great start at Chicago, in front of family and friends from his neighboring home state of Wisconsin. Menard is 14th in the points. If he doesn’t get top-10 finishes at both New Hampshire and Dover, the odds of his making it to Round 2 are slim at best.
Odds: 50-1
Jamie McMurray
3 of 16
Working in his favor: Jamie McMurray is in his first career Chase and obviously wants to succeed. He has to pick up his performance in Loudon and Dover, and in a big way. We would love to see him be a dark horse, much like Ryan Newman was last season. He has the team to drive him in that direction, but does he have the luck? That could be the biggest advantage or curse of all.
Working against him: For all his high hopes and expectations, McMurray didn’t exactly get off to a great start in the Chase, finishing 16th at Chicago, the fourth-worst performance of all Chase drivers. He’s not in as bad of shape as Kevin Harvick is, but unless he gets at least one top 10 and a top 15 (at the very least) in the next two races, it’ll be hard to see him advancing to the second round.
Odds: 35-1
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4 of 16
Working in his favor: Among Chase drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the most successful at New Hampshire of those who have never won there. In other words, he’s a good top-five or top-10 finisher, but he hasn’t been able to break through for a victory there. If he can stay true to form Sunday and have either a top-5 or top-10, he’ll likely be able to move on to the second round.
Working against him: Earnhardt may be ranked 10th in the overall standings, but he’s only 10 points ahead of Jamie McMurray, who is ranked 13th. If Earnhardt has a finish of 15th or worse at Loudon, he could make a quick exit from the Chase at Dover.
Odds: 30-1
Jeff Gordon
5 of 16
Working in his favor: We don’t have to tell you much you don’t already know. Jeff Gordon’s a four-time champ who wants to go out in his final season as a winner. He finished 14th at Chicagoland, which isn’t bad, but it isn’t great, either. Gordon typically does well at Loudon. If he’s to make a big move forward, Sunday is the time and place for him to do so.
Working against him: Gordon has had issues in a number of races this season that don’t exactly bode well for the playoffs. Namely, I’m talking about pressure. He has to work through the pressure in the next two races, or his final season will likely end up the most disappointing of his illustrious 23-year career.
Odds: 20-1
Kevin Harvick
6 of 16
Working in his favor: Sure, he’s 16th of the 16 Chase drivers after the playoff opener, but this is Kevin Harvick, the defending Sprint Cup champ. He does excellently at short one-mile tracks (Loudon and Phoenix), so despite how bad he was last Sunday, he can very easily wind up in Victory Lane this Sunday.
Then it’ll all come down to Dover as to whether he advances to Round 2 or not. That’s why we’re giving him the odds that we are.
Working against him: We’d never have imagined Harvick would be last in the Chase after the first race at Chicagoland. Points-wise, he’s a full win (43 points worth) behind series leader Matt Kenseth. Unless he wins at Loudon and Dover, Harvick will not make it to the second round and be able to defend last season’s championship.
Odds: 15-1
Martin Truex Jr.
7 of 16
Working in his favor: Martin Truex Jr. has confidence and a one-car team that fully believes in him, that he can pull off a big surprise if luck can remain on his side. He finished 13th at Chicagoland, but he’s a much better driver than that. Look for him to finish top-10 at Loudon and potentially earn a win at Dover (where he won his first career Sprint Cup race several years ago).
Working against him: If this was the first third of the season, Truex would be ranked higher and have more favorable odds. But he had a modicum of inconsistency in the second third of the season where one mediocre finish oftentimes led to another mediocre finish in the next race. He needs a much-better finish in the next two races than he had at Chicago, lest he’ll make an early exit from the Chase.
Odds: 15-1
Ryan Newman
8 of 16
Working in his favor: Thus far, this season has been almost an instant replay of last season for Ryan Newman, who once again has used outstanding consistency to not only make the Chase, but also to stake his claim as a dark horse to reach the final round. If he keeps doing what he’s been doing, he’ll keep on going forward just like last season.
Working against him: What if Newman’s run of consistency suddenly comes to a stop? What if he has a bad race at Loudon (which is one of his better tracks)? Could he bounce back at Dover to advance to the second round? We liked that he flew under the radar in last season’s Chase, all the way to the final round. Can history repeat itself? Stay tuned.
Odds: 12-1
Kurt Busch
9 of 16
Working in his favor: The elder Busch brother is a former Chase champion; in fact, he won the first Chase back in 2004. Busch has flown under the radar for much of this season, but now that we’re in the playoffs, he’s going to be as aggressive as ever. And, if teammate Kevin Harvick fails to advance to the second round, it’ll be up to Busch to pick up the championship mantle for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Working against him: Inconsistency has been an issue for Busch both last season and this season. Can he string together 10 strong efforts and win the championship? Yes, I think he can, but he’s going to need a few breaks along the way—not to mention potentially getting some help from both his SHR teammates and even drivers on other teams who didn’t make the Chase. That could be a tall order to ask.
Odds: 10-1
Carl Edwards
10 of 16
Working in his favor: I have to admit, I likely wouldn’t have picked Carl Edwards to finish a close second to winner and teammate Denny Hamlin this past Sunday at Chicagoland. But he did, and now he finds himself in an ultra-strong position of third in the standings. If he can keep up this type of performance, I can easily see Edwards reach the third round, if not the final championship round.
Working against him: As good as Edwards is, his three teammates are better in my eyes. Having to keep them at bay could be very difficult, particularly if all four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers advance to the second and third rounds. All Edwards can do is run his kind of race and not worry about his teammates, just like he did this past Sunday.
Odds: 10-1
Brad Keselowski
11 of 16
Working in his favor: Brad Keselowski is one of the fiercest competitors in Sprint Cup competition. He has no fear and will not let anything or anyone stop him. As long as he doesn’t beat himself, I’m pretty confident Keselowski advances to the second round, and potentially the third round. From there, it’s anyone’s guess.
Working against him: I don’t know about you, but to me Keselowski just seems to be missing something this season. I can’t put my finger on it, but only one win thus far is a rather telling indicator. If Keselowski can win one of the next two races, it will not only give him an automatic berth into the second round, but it will also could lead to a domino effect, where one win begets another.
Odds: 8-1
Kyle Busch
12 of 16
Working in his favor: Is there any driver more motivated in this Chase than the younger Busch brother? Given how far he’s come back after the devastating wreck he had in February, Busch won’t be happy until he finishes this season’s script with his first-ever Sprint Cup championship.
Working against him: Past history in the Chase has not been Busch’s friend. There have been several seasons where he’s come into the Chase with strong odds, only to fall apart at one point or other as the Chase progressed. Can he get past that jinx this year? It’s hard to bet against past history.
Odds: 7-1
Joey Logano
13 of 16
Working in his favor: Joey Logano wants to finish the season off the way he started—with a win. He won the season-opening Daytona 500 and would love to win the season-ending race, at Homestead, because that would also clinch the championship for him for the first time in his Sprint Cup career, much like Harvick did last season. Logano has the talent and team to do just that.
Working against him: Although New Hampshire is considered his home track, Logano’s record there is so-so. The biggest thing he needs to worry about this Sunday is pushing too hard and not letting the pressure get to him. He’s off to a great start, but as Harvick proved at Chicagoland, one bad race could take Logano from a likely sure bet to move on to Round 2 to a potential iffy candidate to do just that.
Odds: 7-1
Jimmie Johnson
14 of 16
Working in his favor: Jimmie Johnson has six championships, more than any other driver in the Chase. He also has Chad Knaus as his crew chief and all the resources of Hendrick Motorsports at his disposal. Johnson is very hungry to win a seventh title, which would tie him with NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for most championships by a driver. That in itself is enough motivation, but Johnson has so much more.
Working against him: Johnson at times this season has uncharacteristically appeared to push, which is something he’s rarely shown in the past. He’s always been very even-keel, but this season—even with the four wins he had coming into the Chase—Johnson just hasn’t seemed to be the same JJ of old. Could that dramatically affect how he performs in the Chase? We’ll see.
Odds: 6-1
Denny Hamlin
15 of 16
Working in his favor: Denny Hamlin proved—at least for one race—that he’s not going to let the torn ACL in his right knee affect him. But things don’t get easier from here. Loudon could be a big test because a flat track may present more strain on Hamlin’s knee than on a banked track. Even so, he’s already got the golden ticket into the second round. He can somewhat relax in the next two races, but if we know Hamlin, he’ll likely still go all-out to win those, as well—even if he doesn’t have to.
Working against him: Sure, Hamlin won at Chicagoland, but it was more of being in the right place at the right time late in the race. That’s a tough way to keep winning races over the next nine coming up. Plus, there’s still concern about the torn ACL. While he seemed to get through Chicagoland OK, what happens at a place like Talladega, or if he gets involved in a wreck at some point in the Chase that could potentially do more harm to his knee?
Odds: 5-1
Matt Kenseth
16 of 16
Working in his favor: Matt Kenseth came out of the first Chase race not only with the lead in the standings, but he is now also the guy with the target on his back—at least for this Sunday’s race at New Hampshire. Kenseth likes short tracks like Loudon, and given the way he’s performed of late, with wins in three of his last seven races, it would not be surprising to see the Wisconsin native make it four wins in his last eight.
Working against him: Honestly, I don’t see anything working against Kenseth. He seems like a man almost on a mission to win his second Cup championship (and first since 2003). Kenseth is one of the most calm and controlled drivers out there. If he can come home with another top five at Loudon, he easily punches his ticket into the second round, regardless of how he performs next week at Dover.
Odds: 4-1
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