Why The Colorado Rockies Have Been Better Without Matt Holliday

(Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

When Matt Holliday was traded this offseason, Colorado Rockies fans were not a happy bunch.

Fans and media members alike claimed the trade was proof that Rockies owners Charlie and Dick Monfront were not willing to make the necessary financial commitment to field a winning team.

Most people claimed that General Manager Dan O’Dowd would never reclaim the success he had with the Cleveland Indians in the late 1990’s. 

To put it simply, most fans thought that without Holliday the Rockies would suffer and it was management’s fault.

Now, sitting 3.5 games ahead of the rest of the field in the NL wild card race, it’s Colorado’s management team that is laughing its way to the playoffs.

So what in the world happened? Shouldn’t the team be floundering away in last place?

The short answer is yes. But that’s not how baseball works.

Instead, while no one was watching, the Holliday trade helped pave the way for the Colorado Rockies to make the playoffs. If the team had not driven its single best player from the team, the Rockies would be nowhere close to where they are now. It is as simple as that.

This year, splitting time between two teams, Holliday has hit .314/.393/.528 with 23 home runs and 99 RBI. It’s been a good season for the left fielder, but probably less than Billy Beane expected when he traded for one of the premier bats in the game.

In his place, the Rockies have primarily platooned Seth Smith, a 26-year-old lefty who barely had 100 at bats coming into the season, and Carlos Gonzalez, a 23-year-old former top prospect considered to be the centerpiece of the Holliday trade.

Together, the two have combined to hit .298/.377/.531 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI. They have combined for three more stolen bases than Holliday (with three fewer failed attempts) and have played markedly better defense in the outfield.

According to WPA (an advanced statistic that attempts to gauge the number of wins each individual player is worth to his team), the two have combined for 2.01 wins. Holliday has been worth about one win more between his two teams.

Though it would be difficult to prove that Smith and Gonzalez have completely replaced Holliday’s production in Colorado’s lineup, it is clear that the two have done an admirable job smoothing over the loss.

To review the Holliday trade, the Rockies picked up three major league ready pieces in Gonzalez, closer Huston Street and injured starter Greg Smith. While Smith hasn’t yet pitched for the team, Street immediately took over as the team’s closer, quickly establishing himself as one of the premier relievers in the National League.

This season, Street has been worth nearly three full wins to Colorado, a remarkable number for a relief pitcher. Even more impressive, he has completely covered for the lack of Brian Fuentes in the bullpen, going 33 for 34 in save attempts while carrying an ERA under 3.00.

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