UFC Fight Night 74: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
The UFC returns after a short break for a Fight Night in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, on Sunday. UFC Fight Night 74 features a six-fight main card.
In the main event, No. 5-ranked featherweight Max Holloway takes on No. 7-ranked Charles Oliveira. A win would catapult the victor into true title contention at 145 pounds.
Neil Magny returns on short notice to take on Erick Silva in the co-main event. After Demian Maia throttled Magny at UFC 190, the American dropped one spot to No. 15 in the UFC rankings. This is another stiff test for Magny and a great opportunity for Silva to re-establish himself in the division.
UFC Fight Night 74 should provide more fun fights for fans, but who holds the value going into the event?
Let's take a look at the betting odds for UFC Fight Night 74.
Maryna Moroz (-200) vs. Valerie Letourneau (+160)
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Maryna Moroz made a statement in her UFC debut. As a significant underdog to Joanne Calderwood, the Ukrainian defeated the top-10-ranked strawweight in just 90 seconds.
Moroz then immediately called out the champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Moroz didn't get the title shot and instead travels to Canada to take on Valerie Letourneau. She is 2-0 in the UFC and 1-0 after dropping back to 115 pounds against Jessica Rakoczy.
Letourneau is tough, but Moroz is part of the new breed of female fighters. Just as we saw the evolution with male fighters more than a decade ago, we are starting to see the same thing with the women. Moroz should hold a decisive advantage against Letourneau, but it won't be a cakewalk.
I like the value of minus-200 on Moroz. This is her fight to lose, and it should be a safe play.
Prediction: Moroz defeats Letourneau by decision.
The Play: Be safe with Moroz.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-250) vs. Tony Sims (+195)
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Tony Sims made an impact in his debut in June with a knockout of Steve Montgomery, but he will be in for a tough go at UFC Fight Night 74.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier has good upside, and this appears to be a good matchup for the Canadian.
I like Aubin-Mercier at minus-250. He shouldn't be in too much danger in this fight, and getting a near sure thing at those odds isn't too shabby. This is his fight to lose.
I expect another late-round finish for Aubin-Mercier. He will wear out Sims until he makes a mistake in the third frame. Aubin-Mercier keeps steadily improving and building a decent resume.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier defeats Sims via submission in the third round.
The Play: Aubin-Mercier is a safe play.
Chad Laprise (-350) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+265)
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The fight between Chad Laprise and Francisco Trinaldo could be a dark-horse candidate for Fight of the Night.
Laprise is a solid favorite, but I don't see much value on him in this fight. Trinaldo is a dangerous opponent both on the feet and on the ground. However, his fight IQ is not the best, and that is where Laprise should easily take this to the judges for a win.
Regardless, Trinaldo's abilities make me pause at his current odds of plus-265. There is a little value to take a flier on the Brazilian.
Laprise is the better, more tactical fighter, which should ultimately be the difference. Yet, if you feel compelled, there is a value on Trinaldo here.
Prediction: Laprise defeats Trinaldo by decision.
The Play: Take a small flier on Trinaldo.
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Patrick Cote (+105) vs. Josh Burkman (-135)
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Two crafty veterans step inside the cage each other for the fourth fight on the main card. Patrick Cote and Josh Burkman have been at this for quite some time.
The odds are close, and that is a reflection of where they are in their careers.
Cote hasn't captured the same fear he had at middleweight with his big knockout power. His four fights at 170 pounds have all ended in decision. Burkman, on the other hand, got back in the UFC after a quality stint in World Series of Fighting but has not performed that well inside the Octagon.
This is a coin-flip fight, but I like Cote to clip Burkman in the second round. There is too much risk to play either fighter.
Prediction: Cote defeats Burkman by TKO in the second round.
The Play: Skip this fight.
Neil Magny (+150) vs. Erick Silva (-185)
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Neil Magny jumps right back into the fire against Erick Silva in the co-main event.
Magny reeled off seven straight wins, but Demian Maia dominated him at UFC 190. Silva is coming off back-to-back victories over Mike Rhodes and Josh Koscheck.
Silva was once a shining prospect in this division, but losses to Jon Fitch, Dong Hyun Kim and Matt Brown took the luster off his ascent. Even still, he has only lost to some of the best in this division. If he can put all the tools together, he can make a run up the ranks. He has all the physical skills.
I like Silva here, and at minus-185 I like him even more. Magny put together an impressive win streak but failed to beat anyone at the level of Silva. The Brazilian is a better athlete, has more power and has the more finely tuned skills. Magny will have to win by working the body and wearing Silva down. I don't see that happening.
This will be a statement performance from Silva. Look for props on him finishing this fight for even better odds.
Prediction: Silva defeats Magny by KO in the first round.
The Play: Take Silva confidently.
Max Holloway (-225) vs. Charles Oliveira (+175)
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This is an excellent main event that is flying under the radar. The featherweight division is one of the most exciting in the sport, and these two men are a big part of that.
Holloway has won six straight, while Oliveira has won four straight. They have combined for eight finishes in those 10 wins.
Holloway cannot play with Oliveira on the mat, or he will get caught. Holloway will avoid the ground game and make the Brazilian pay with body work. Oliveira will start to tire under the volume and pressure of Holloway, which will lead to a fourth-round finish.
Oliveira is a live dog, but I would not feel comfortable playing him at these current odds. If you feel confident in him, you are best off seeking prop bets on the finish. He is most likely to catch Holloway in a submission than to win a decision in a five-round bout.
I would suggest skipping the fight at these odds. Wait until closer to the fight to see how the odds shift; the value may be there for the risk.
Prediction: Holloway defeats Oliveira by TKO in the fourth round.
The Play: Don't play the fight at the current odds.
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