Projecting the Playoffs, The Case for Kotchman

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Projecting the Playoffs

With just 20 games remaining in the regular season, the Sox' Hunt for Red October is getting stronger by the day. At this juncture, with this team, a 4 ½ game lead in the Wild Card is a considerable advantage. Don't get cozy though, as one hot or cold stretch can completely change the complexion of this race. Still, it's looking pretty good for the Sox, as Baseball Prospectus gives the Red Sox a 92% chance of winning the Wild Card (though they are quoted as having just a 1.5 % chance of winning the AL East).

But this is by no means a set race. Remember, baseball history is littered with cautionary tales of teams who were content to just sit on their lead. Lest we forget, and become drunk by our own success, there's the 1978 Red Sox, the 1986 Red Sox, the 2003 Red Sox, even the 2004 Yankees. Sometimes we all need to be humbled. (If you like horror stories, check out this article by Nate Silver on late season collapses. A word to the wise: light sleepers, don't even bother reading about the 1995 Angels. You'll be up all night.)

Now that you've been scared straighter than an adolescent in juvey, take solace in the fact that the Sox have a pretty favorable schedule ahead of them. Their remaining six series include trips to Baltimore and Kansas City, as well as a set at home against Toronto and Cleveland to close out the year.

The other two sets will be much more difficult, however.

This week's home stand against the Angels will have a lot to say about the Wild Card race, and could be Texas' last chance to climb out of their hole. Texas needs an L.A. sweep, which, though unlikely, is always a possibility.

And the Sox also have one more series against the boys in Pinstripes. Should the previous two sets against New York be any indicator, things will be very ugly. Hopefully, the race will be long over before the team's field trip to the Bronx from the 25th to the 27th.

Texas has a similar schedule, with two series against contenders (2 v. Los Angeles) and four against regular season flops (Oakland twice, Seattle once, and one versus the suddenly vintage Tampa Bay). Boston has the easier shake, but, if you're reading this site, you're probably OK with that.

From a fan's standpoint, it's too bad that Texas doesn't face Boston at any point in the remainder of the season. It would have been guaranteed to provide huge fireworks as the season winds down. Instead, baseball fans across the country will have to be content with reading lonely box scores as they follow the playoff race.

The Most Unappreciated Red Sock

In the 2008 ALCS, facing little brother the Tampa Bay Rays, the Sox squandered back-to-back World Series dreams when their 7-9 hitters batted 0 for 1000. Only the anti-heroics of one Rays right fielder Gabe Gross were enough to keep the Sox in the series at all (Gross was hitless on the series, and misplayed J.D. Drew's Game 5 line drive into the game-winning hit.)

I think Theo learned his lesson from last season: never underestimate the value of backups.

While this is a new season, and with it brings new challenges, lineup depth will not be one of them.

Why?

...because Casey Kotchman mans first base.

Now, "Casey Kotchman" isn't the most awe-inspiring name: he is a below-average first baseman with the stick and he doesn't hit a whole lot better than a middle infield regular. But he does provide the Red Sox with some serious depth and flexibility in the infield.

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