Predicting MLB's 10 Postseason Teams with 1 Quarter to Go

The Kansas City Royals are a stone-cold lock to win the American League Central, but the rest of baseball's division and wild-card races are still far from determined.

As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times noted, while the Royals have claimed a 12-game edge in the AL Central, the other five division front-runners have a combined lead of 11.5 games. Simply put, there's a lot left to be decided between now and the end of the season.

Here are the main factors that were taken into consideration in the process of predicting which 10 teams will make it to October:

• Recent performance
• Injuries
• Trade additions
• Remaining schedule

The end results were favorable for last year's defending world champs. But the predictions didn't work out so well for a couple of clubs that entered the season with big-time expectations and are currently stuck in second place in their respective divisions.

AL West

Associated Press

Scott Kazmir has a 0.44 ERA for Houston.

In the Mix

1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Texas Rangers

Predicted Winner: Astros

Someone has to win this division—even if none of the three teams in the hunt have managed to take control of the AL West race just yet.

The Texas Rangers, who are 4.5 games out of first, have been piling up runs, ranking second in the majors in that department in the second half (123 in 22 games). But the Rangers have also been allowing the opposition to get on the board at a furious rate. Since the All-Star break, Texas' pitchers have been hammered to the tune of a 5.59 ERA (second-worst in baseball).

For the Los Angeles Angels, who are one game back of the division-leading Houston Astros, it's been the bats that have gone missing. The Halos offense is No. 27 in batting average (.233) and No. 26 in OPS (.673) since the break.

While the Rangers and Angels both have their flaws, the Astros haven't exactly been cruising along. The club has lost seven of its past 10 contests and has been a mess away from Minute Maid Park. As Brian McTaggart of MLB.com noted, the Astros are 8-27 on the road after beginning the season 15-7 in away games.

Ultimately, the Astros get the nod here thanks to the shrewd deadline dealings of general manager Jeff Luhnow. The exec made a solid addition to the team's lineup in Carlos Gomez, but the acquisition of Scott Kazmir was the most underrated move of the entire trade season.

Kazmir doesn't generate the same kind of buzz as fellow lefty ace Cole Hamels, but it's difficult to find any starter who's been more effective in the AL. Kazmir owns a 2.08 ERA on the season and has posted a 0.44 mark in his first three outings for Houston.

AL Central

Associated Press

Will we see more of this in the Royals' future?

In the Mix

1. Kansas City Royals

Predicted Winner: Royals

So much for the AL Central being the most competitive division in baseball. This is a one-horse race.

The Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox have all been among the game's biggest duds in 2015, while the Minnesota Twins have crashed back to earth in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Minnesota's pitching staff has run up an alarming 6.17 ERA, which is the worst mark in the majors.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals, who cleaned up at the deadline by adding a much-needed ace in Johnny Cueto and super-utility man Ben Zobrist, just keep rolling along with the best record in the AL (67-44). The Royals hold a commanding 12-game lead in the division, which is the club's biggest advantage since 1980, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, as Buster Olney of ESPN noted via Twitter.

Both deadline additions are fitting right in with the Royals. Monday, in his first start at Kauffman Stadium, Cueto threw a shutout, ringing up eight K's while allowing four hits.

“I like everything about him,” manager Ned Yost told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star about the club's new No. 1. "He’s entertaining to watch. He’s got great stuff. He’s a great competitor, and he can execute.”

Meanwhile, Zobrist is right at home, as he's gone yard three times in his first 10 games while filling in for Alex Gordon in left.

AL East

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

David Price is feeling it in Toronto.

In the Mix

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Tampa Bay Rays

Predicted Winner: Blue Jays

Suddenly, the New York Yankees' perch atop the AL East standings is looking awfully tenuous.

The Tampa Bay Rays remain within shouting distance (six games back), and the Baltimore Orioles have charged to within 4.5 games of the lead. But the biggest problem for New York is that the Toronto Blue Jays are one scary team.

At first, it didn't make a ton of sense when GM Alex Anthopoulos made his deadline blockbuster to add Troy Tulowitzki to an already high-powered lineup. Fast forward a couple of weeks, and that's no longer the case. Simply put, baseball's most dangerous lineup has now become one that is impossible to navigate.

The club's first four hitters—Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion—have taken a two-by-four to the rest of the AL. Since Tulo arrived at the Rogers Centre on July 29, that quartet has slugged 17 home runs, which is more than 26 other teams in baseball, per ESPN Stats & Info.

But it's not just the offense that gives the Jays the edge in this race. After all, New York hasn't had any trouble getting on the board, as the team has scored the third-most runs (120) in MLB since the Midsummer Classic.

The difference-maker for the Jays is the pitching staff. The group has posted the lowest ERA in the AL in the second half (2.37). That's nearly a run lower than the next-best team in the circuit, the Houston Astros, who sit at 3.29.

The starting five has been especially nasty. In August, the rotation has put up the lowest ERA in baseball at 1.77 as of Monday, per Richard Justice of MLB.com. David Price leads the way, as the lefty ace has allowed just one run in his first two starts with Toronto while punching out 18.

"That's what we envisioned when we pulled that trade off,” manager John Gibbons said, via Mike Mazzeo of ESPN.com. “But that's what he does. Every time he goes out there he's got a chance to throw a shutout. You know he's going to pitch deep into the game because he's strong. And he's got the reputation too, so he's a little intimidating even before you start facing him."

Sparked by the additions of Tulowitzki and Price, the Blue Jays have become one of the most intimidating teams in baseball. Now, it's just a matter of time before Toronto overtakes the Yankees in the AL East.

AL Wild Card

Associated Press

Adam Jones (left) and Manny Machado hope to get the O's back to the postseason.

In the Mix

1. New York Yankees
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Texas Rangers
6. Minnesota Twins
7. Detroit Tigers

Predicted Winners: Yankees (first wild card); Orioles (second wild card)

With the New York Yankees missing out on the AL East title in this set of predictions, the club falls into the top wild-card spot. As Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post explained, much of the credit for the club's success goes to the unexpectedly powerful offense and the dominance of bullpen aces Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller:

"

The Yankees had so many question marks this year—and have many of them still—but to date they have enjoyed astonishing bounce-back years from Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, they have baseball’s most bullet-proof back-end bullpen, and they have been the best team on earth in jumping out to early leads, taking pressure off their starters almost every night.

"

Betances and Miller would be especially valuable to the Yankees in the postseason, as the shutdown relievers would effectively turn any game into a seven-inning affair. That would be a major boost for the middling rotation, which checks in at No. 20 in ERA (4.30).

The real dilemma here was trying to settle on which team would land the second wild-card berth. A whole bunch of clubs are still in the picture—even the 54-58 Detroit Tigers are only 5.5 games out of an October trip—but the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels are at the top of the list of contenders.

As Steve Melewski of MASN noted, the Orioles have been making a serious push to snag that spot, winning 11 of 16 and closing to within two games of the Angels in the process.

While the O's have been trending in the right direction, the Angels definitely have not. Los Angeles has dropped 12 of 17 games, leaving the door open for three AL East squads to punch their tickets to the postseason.

NL West

Associated Press

Zack Greinke is a stalwart for the Dodgers.

In the Mix

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants

Predicted Winner: Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers' gas can of a bullpen is threatening to sink the squad as the NL West leaders attempt to hold off the division-rival San Francisco Giants.

The Dodgers' relief corps has racked up the second-worst ERA in the NL (4.16) and played a leading role in the club stumbling through its first four-game losing skid of the season.

But as L.A. skipper Don Mattingly explained, via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, the strategy for ending the streak is simple: "Get the ball to Zack Greinke."

Fortunately for Mattingly, Greinke isn't the only lights-out starter he can call upon. With Greinke (No. 1 in the majors in ERA at 1.71) and Clayton Kershaw (No. 11 in ERA at 2.51) starting 40 percent of the team's games, the Dodgers should be able to piece together enough wins to remain seated on the division throne.

At the same time, it wouldn't be the worst idea to add a reliever before the end of the month via a waiver-wire trade.

It's worth noting that the Giants are also on a four-game losing streak and are 2.5 games back in the NL West standings.

And injuries are starting to take their toll in San Francisco. The recently acquired Mike Leake is out with a hamstring strain after making just one start, and the team is also making do without a key cog in Joe Panik. The All-Star second baseman, who has been on the shelf with lower back inflammation since Aug. 1, plays an integral role in San Francisco's offense.

"You can make a case for Joe Panik for the team MVP Award," CSN Bay Area's Randy Winn told 95.7 The Game in a recent interview.

The obvious argument against such a claim is that San Francisco also has Buster Posey, who is building a compelling resume for the NL MVP award. Still, Winn's comment illustrates just how indispensable Panik is to the Giants as the club looks to get back to the postseason to defend its World Series title.

NL Central

Associated Press

Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals will take the NL Central.

In the Mix

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Chicago Cubs

Predicted Winner: Cardinals

There's no question about it—the NL Central is the premier division in baseball.

With a 71-40 record, the St. Louis Cardinals are MLB's only 70-win team, and yet the club hasn't managed to bury the Pittsburgh Pirates (five games back) and the Chicago Cubs (8.5 games back).

Chicago's best chance of making a late run to pass its NL Central neighbors is to keep getting monster performances from its young core of position players. During the Cubs' recent four-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants, rookies Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and Kris Bryant combined to hit .377 (20-for-53) with 16 RBI, per ESPN Stats & Info.

But it's the Pirates who pose the far more serious threat, and the Bucs and Cards are still slated to face off nine times. The final days of September could prove to be must-watch theater, as the Pirates will host St. Louis for a three-game set in the second-to-last series of the year. In 2015, Pittsburgh has been spectacular at PNC Park, posting a 39-18 mark. That's the second-best home record in the majors, behind only the Cardinals (40-16).

While there's a real chance that this chase could go down to the closing days of the season, it's the Cardinals' unreal pitching staff that should allow the team to claim the division crown.

The Pirates' staff, which is without the sidelined A.J. Burnett (elbow), has been wobbling as of late. The group has put up a 4.87 ERA since the break, which is the second-worst in the NL. Meanwhile, St. Louis' arms have been historically dominant all season long.

Per ESPN's Jayson Stark, the rotation is on track to serve up the fewest runs ever (338) during a 162-game campaign. The squad's relievers have also been doing their part, as the relief crew is No. 1 in the bigs with a 2.26 ERA.

NL East

Associated Press

The Mets finally have an anchor in the middle of their lineup in Yoenis Cespedes.

In the Mix

1. New York Mets
2. Washington Nationals

Predicted Winner: Mets

With the New York Mets clinging to a 1.5-game lead over the Washington Nationals in the NL East, this race is setting up to go down to the wire. The winner of the division might not be determined until the last out of the season is recorded, as the clubs will play a three-game series at Citi Field to close out the year.

For the Mets, the story of the season has been the rise of the team's stable of young aces. But quietly the offense has been starting to chip in, too. Since the All-Star break, the once-anemic lineup has become respectable, ranking No. 11 in the majors in runs.

For the Nats, who haven't come close to meeting the club's lofty expectations, the story has been the onslaught of injuries. Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Stephen Strasburg are all back, but the team is still missing Denard Span, the player who sets the tone for the offense. And his absence is showing.

Span has been out since July 6 with a back problem, and the Nats rank No. 19 in runs in the second half. Right now, it's unclear when, or if, the spark plug will be back.

“I really don’t know,” Span said, via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. “I don’t know. On the days that I don’t feel good, I second guess that. But on the days like today that I feel good, I do have hope that I will be able to return before the season’s over with.”

Even if the Nationals get their table-setter back, the odds are still in the Mets' favor now that the lineup is showing signs of life. It only takes a little offense to get New York in the win column. In 2015, the Mets are winning at a clip of .860 (43-7) when the team scores at least four runs, per ESPN Stats & Info. That's bad news for the Nats. 

NL Wild Card

Associated Press

Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates are a lock for the first wild-card berth.

In the Mix

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Chicago Cubs
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Washington Nationals
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Predicted Winners: Pirates (first wild card); Giants and Cubs (tied for second wild card)

Picking the NL wild-card winners was no easy task. The Pittsburgh Pirates were a lock for the top spot because at 65-44, the team is currently the owner of the second-best record in the NL and the third-best mark overall.

That left the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals to battle it out for the last postseason berth. The Giants are 3.5 games back of the upstart Cubs, but San Francisco has an especially favorable schedule during the final month that could allow the team to go on a late run. Of the Giants' final nine series, eight come against teams with losing records.

As a result, the prediction here calls for a a tie between the Cubs and Giants for the second wild-card spot. In the tiebreaker game, the Giants end up on the right side of the scoreline thanks to the club's knack for coming through in the biggest moments. In 2015, the Giants lead baseball with a .294 average with runners in scoring position and two outs.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.