Coca Cola 600 Fantasy Thoughts

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I chose David Ragan to win the Coca Cola 600 during our picks weekly segment ON PIT ROW this week. What was I thinking? Admittedly that segment of the show is pretty “off the wall”. It isn’t meant to be serious fantasy racing analysis. It’s more about who can “out stupid” whom. Looking at NASCAR’s Loop Data this week makes me think maybe I have a lock on that for the 600. Ragan isn’t even on the sheet!

Now I will admit to being influenced by the Sprint Showdown - the qualifier for the Sprint All Star Race. David finished a strong third, just out of the last transfer spot. Then Sunday I got to watch him - in person - start from the back of a 35 car field and work to the front for third place finish in the ARCA RE/MAX Series race at Toledo Speedway. Plus I talked to him in the infield at Toledo. He’s a nice guy. But 200 laps at the Glass City half mile isn’t even close to 400 at Lowes. I may have over-bought.

If not Ragan, who?

Once again, Jimmy Johnson is the overwhelming leader of the Loop Data stats. If Dave Ragan is a stretch - and he is - then Johnson is a steal if you get to pick him. But J J has looked the part at many other races in 2008 too, only to disappoint. His Driver Rating of 120.2 - nearly 26 points better than second place Kyle Busch - is a big number. He has Series best stats in nine other Box Score categories including Ave Finish of 5.0, Ave Position 7.5, 246 Fastest Laps and 1956 Laps in the Top 15 for 88.6% of the last six Lowes races. Johnson’s 990 Ave Points Gained is 100 pts better than the next highest total - the 899 for Carl Edwards.

The Loop stats for Lowes are a bit strange though. As stated, Kyle Busch has the second best Driver Rating, but his Ave Points Gained per race is only 596 - almost 400 less than Johnson’s total. The Shrub will start from the pole and he has been one of the best this season but the Loop stats don’t point to consistency at Charlotte. His Ave Finish is only 23.5.

Carl Edwards’ Driver Rating, despite the second most Ave Points Gained per race, is even lower than Busch the Younger’s at 88.6. Carl has been strong on the intermediate tracks this year and I expect he’ll do well at Lowes too. Five top tens in his six starts are a good indication.

Veteran Mark Martin has the number three DR at 93.2 and he’s a four time winner at the N Carolina track. There hasn’t been much talk about Martin in 2008. He could make some noise this week though.

Kasey Kahne, winner of the Sprint All Star race and two time Lowes winner has a Driver Rating of 92.9 and has led the most Loop Laps with 338 to Johnson’s 298. If the Thursday ruling on suspension settings by NASCAR doesn’t throw the #9 teams setups off too much, Kahne could be the pick this week.

You can throw a Loop blanket over the next dozen contenders. The only stat of the bunch that jumps out at me is Bobby Labonte’s Ave Points Gained - 812 from the 13th overall DR ranking position.

I haven’t seen enough from the #9 to pick Kahne for a 600 mile race. To me it’s between Johnson and Edwards. I’ll go with Jimmy, the big stat advantage and the five wins. Carl could get his first Lowes win, but I have to see it first.

Dark horse pick - Kurt Busch.