Can Sebastian Vettel 'Make the Impossible Possible' and Win the 2015 F1 Title?
After winning the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 26, Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel sits 42 points behind Lewis Hamilton in the Formula One drivers' standings. Hamilton's Mercedes team-mate, Nico Rosberg, splits the pair perfectly, 21 points ahead of Vettel.
After the Budapest race, Vettel spoke about his chances of winning the title, saying, "There is still a lot of work to do to catch up but you never know," according to the BBC's Andrew Benson. "I am sure we will try absolutely everything and try to make the impossible possible."
In this case, "impossible" is the right word to use.
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With nine grands prix remaining in the season, Vettel needs to outscore Hamilton by an average of nearly five points per race to beat him to the title. And that is not even taking into account whatever Rosberg does in the second half of the year.
Vettel's average finishing position in 2015 is third, but because points are not distributed evenly between the finishing positions, he has averaged 16 points per race (third place is actually worth 15).
To illustrate how difficult it will be for Vettel to catch the Mercs, let's say his average finishing position for the rest of the season is second and he scores 18 points per race (a stretch, considering Hamilton and Rosberg have taken 15 of 20 first- and second-place finishes so far this year). That would give Vettel 322 points at the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Hamilton's performance deteriorates and his average finishing position over the last nine races falls to third (it was second for the first 10 races)—he scores just 15 points per race.
Hamilton would end the season with 337 points, while Vettel would score 322.
And someone would still need to pick up the slack from Hamilton's hypothetical stumble. That person would likely be Rosberg, who would probably beat both Hamilton and Vettel to the title in this scenario.
Although Mercedes were caught out in Hungary, both their cars have finished on the podium at every other race this season—and they had three straight one-two finishes before Budapest.
Ferrari's performances, aside from the surprise Hungarian win, have been trending in the opposite direction. As the clear second-best team at the start of the year, a Ferrari driver was on the podium at each of the first six races.
In Canada, the Scuderia arrived touting an improved engine and promptly failed to find the podium for the first time, with Williams' Valtteri Bottas taking third behind the Mercs. In Austria, the Ferraris were off the podium again, with Bottas' team-mate, Felipe Massa, nipping Vettel for third. And at the British Grand Prix, late-race rain helped Vettel jump the Williams and finish third.
Ferrari have already matched the preseason expectations of team principal Maurizio Arrivabene, who said his goal of two victories was "ambitious, but not really unrealistic," according to Sky Sports.
Of course, none of this is to suggest that Ferrari and Vettel abandon the championship chase this year—merely to show what a long shot any title hopes are.
Their goal now should be to continue making performance gains relative to Mercedes and planning for a sustained, realistic title challenge in 2016.
There is already talk that Kimi Raikkonen, who has underperformed since rejoining Ferrari in 2014, will be replaced by his countryman, Bottas, next year. According to the Italian newspaper Corriere dello Sport (h/t Sky Sports), a deal might already be in place.
Another Italian publication, La Gazzetta dello Sport, reported earlier this year that Ferrari increased their F1 budget by €100 million to help catch Mercedes (h/t grandprix247.com).
The pieces are coming together for a great battle between Mercedes and Ferrari, but this season looks like a test run. No matter how much Ferrari improve now, the Silver Arrows are too far ahead.
After the Hungarian Grand Prix, according to ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson, Ferrari technical director James Allison said, "Our car isn't good enough to challenge for any sort of championship this year. We will do our best to get more and more competitive race by race, but you have to be realistic about where we are working from."
Vettel may not have given up on his 2015 title hopes, but the rest of us should be looking forward to a much closer fight in 2016. Until then, we can enjoy what looks like another race to the wire between Hamilton and Rosberg.
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