UFC 190: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
Ronda Rousey will look to continue her reign over the women's bantamweight division at UFC 190, where she will meet rival Bethe Correia.
Correia has done well to promote this bout against Rousey and owns an undefeated record. Still, not many are giving the Brazilian a good chance of dethroning Rousey this weekend.
An Olympic medalist in judo, Rousey has always been considered a step above the rest in her division athletically. As a result, the 135-pound champion has never stepped into a cage as an underdog at any point in her MMA career.
There's little reason that would change heading into a matchup with Correia, but here is a look at the current betting odds, via Odds Shark, for every bout on the UFC 190 main card.
Claudia Gadelha (-440) vs. Jessica Aguilar (+350)
1 of 7
Coming off of a split-decision loss to now-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Claudia Gadelha has her sights set on earning a rematch with the strawweight queen. The only person standing between her and that shot is UFC newcomer Jessica Aguilar.
Although Aguilar has no UFC experience, she is still considered one of the best 115-pounders in the world. With wins over Carla Esparza, Megumi Fujii and others, Aguilar was a champion outside the Octagon and will now attempt to become a champion inside the Octagon.
With her UFC experience and recent performance against the division's best, Gadelha has the edge in this matchup. However, I'm somewhat shocked to see her favored this much over Aguilar, who has a very real shot at pulling off the upset.
For that reason, I'd shy away from placing money on this fight unless one feels strongly that Aguilar can come away with the victory.
Prediction: Gadelha
Play: Pass
Antonio Silva (+170) vs. Soa Palelei (-200)
2 of 7
With losses in three straight official bouts, Antonio Silva has fallen on hard times. However, all those defeats came against Top 10 heavyweights, and Soa Palelei is not a Top 10 heavyweight.
Palelei has posted a solid 4-1 record inside the Octagon, but he's also not been tested by a top-notch heavyweight opponent. Jared Rosholt was the toughest adversary Palelei has faced, and he only managed to land 11 significant strikes on the American.
I don't know how much Bigfoot has left in the tank, but I do know there is little reason to believe he should be an underdog against Palelei. I'd feel comfortable betting on the Brazilian in this matchup.
Prediction: Silva
Play: One percent bankroll on Silva
Stefan Struve (-170) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150)
3 of 7
At 39 years old, the end appears to be near for Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's MMA career. It has been a memorable one, but the Brazilian has lost three of his past four bouts, and his last win over a currently ranked opponent came when he met Josh Barnett during his Pride FC days.
That said, Nogueira seems to turn it up a notch when competing in his home country, and UFC 190 is set to go down in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Stefan Struve is 12 years younger than Nogueira, so time is on his side, but Skyscraper hasn't looked very good recently either. Following a health scare, Struve returned to competition in December and suffered a second consecutive knockout loss.
While Struve has a very good ground game, it isn't likely to be effective against a grappler like Nogueira. Also, Nogueira's underrated boxing could expose Struve's questionable chin once again.
Prediction: Nogueira
Play: One percent bankroll on Noqueira
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Reginaldo Vieira (+260) vs. DIleno Lopes (-320)
4 of 7
Reginaldo Vieira did well to reach the TUF Brazil 4 finals, but he only did so after losing a fight and replacing Giovanni Santos, who was forced to withdraw from the competition.
Dileno Lopes was much more dominant on his way to this matchup. Along the way, he defeated Matheus Nicolau, the man responsible for Vieira's loss on the show.
With that in mind, it's hard to not consider Lopes a massive favorite in this matchup. I have no doubt he'll get the win this weekend, and he may even be able to stop Vieira early.
Prediction: Lopes
Play: Two percent bankroll on Lopes
Glaico Franca (-170) vs. Fernando Bruno (+150)
5 of 7
With decision wins over Adilson Fernandes and Nazareno Malegarie, Fernando Bruno had a tough path to the TUF Brazil 4 finals, but he made it anyway. At 33 years old, it is a good thing, because the time is now for the Brazilian to make his name known.
Nine years younger than his opponent, Glaico Franca might have more upside than Bruno. He also submitted his way to the finals. However, I'm not sure Nego is ready for the spotlight.
I am expecting Bruno to grind out a decision win this weekend. However, I also believe it will be Franca who goes on to have the longer and more successful UFC career.
Prediction: Bruno
Play: One percent bankroll on Bruno
Mauricio Rua (-185) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+160)
6 of 7
With two straight knockout losses, Mauricio Rua clearly isn't the fighter he once was. However, Shogun has at least been able to remain active, competing four times over a span during which his opponent only made one trip to the Octagon.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is only one bout removed from a win over Rashad Evans. However, that win came more than two years ago. Injuries have stalled Nogueira's career and may force him to call it quits sooner rather than later.
I don't have a ton of faith in Shogun these days, but he remains dangerous, and Nogueira should come into UFC 190 with some rust. Rua will take advantage and put his fellow Brazilian away early.
Prediction: Rua
Play: One percent bankroll on Rua
Ronda Rousey (-1700) vs. Bethe Correia (+1100)
7 of 7
Undefeated and having stopped all 11 opponents she's faced, Rousey is simply on another level compared to everybody else in the women's bantamweight division.
Correia has looked good early in her UFC career, but she talked her way into a beating. That's the only way one can be given a title shot with a win over Shayna Baszler these days.
The return won't be that great given the odds, but I consider Rousey free money in this matchup. If I had the guts to bet it all on her, I would.
Prediction: Rousey
Play: Five percent bankroll on Rousey
Statistics via FightMetric.
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