What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for New York Jets WR Devin Smith?

The New York Jets are not one wide receiver away from fielding a dominant offense. If there's any position where they are "one player away" from turning things around, it's the quarterback position. Unfortunately, finding the "one player away" at quarterback is no small chore.

Whoever ends up being the Jets' quarterback of the future—whether it's Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty or someone not yet on the roster—that player will have the benefit of the best wide receiver depth chart the Jets have had in quite some time.

Rookie wide receiver Devin Smith isn't hitting in the leadoff spot on that depth chart, but perhaps that's for the best.

Not only does Smith have the benefit of learning the Jets' offensive system and getting up to speed with life in the NFL in a lower-pressure setting, but when he is on the field, he will also have the added bonus of multiple talented wide receivers surrounding him who will command the attention and the respect of opposing defenses.

Rookie wide receivers do not always have the smoothest transition to the NFL, but over the years, plenty of pass-catchers have proven that it doesn't necessarily take a long time to get acclimated.

Here's a list of all the wide receivers who have been drafted in the second round since 2011 and how those pass-catchers fared in their first year in the NFL. With this list, we can begin to get a framework for the threshold of production for first-year players at the position.

Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	YPR	TD
Marqise Lee	69	37	422	11.4	1
Jordan Matthews	103	67	872	13.0	8
Paul Richardson	44	29	271	9.3	1
Davante Adams	66	38	446	11.7	3
Cody Latimer	4	2	23	11.5	0
Allen Robinson	81	48	548	11.4	2
Jarvis Landry	112	84	758	9.0	5
Justin Hunter	42	18	354	19.7	4
Robert Woods	85	40	587	14.7	3
Aaron Dobson	72	37	519	14.0	4
Brian Quick	27	11	156	14.2	2
Stephen Hill	47	21	252	12.0	3
Alshon Jeffery	48	24	367	15.3	3
Ryan Broyles	32	22	310	14.1	2
Rueben Randle	32	19	298	15.7	3
Titus Young	86	48	607	12.6	6
Torrey Smith	95	50	841	16.8	7
Greg Little	119	61	709	11.6	2
Randall Cobb	31	25	375	15.0	1

The outlook is strikingly mixed. On average, these 19 rookie receivers hauled in 35.8 of the 62.9 passes thrown their way for 458.7 yards (12.8 yards per catch) and 3.2 touchdowns. That being said, there are outliers on both ends of the spectrum.

Cody Latimer (Denver Broncos), Paul Richardson (Seattle Seahawks), Rueben Randle (New York Giants) and Ryan Broyles (Detroit Lions) all fall well below the production baseline. A slow start did not mean anything to Randle, who has become a staple of the Giants offense. Broyles has battled injuries in his three-year career that have stunted his development into a productive receiver.

On the flip side, Jarvis Landry (Miami Dolphins), Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia Eagles), Titus Young (Detroit Lions), Greg Little (Cleveland Browns) and Torrey Smith (formerly of the Baltimore Ravens) have all come out well above the expectations of a rookie second-round wide receiver.

For Young and Little, a hot start did not translate into a long, successful NFL career. Young's NFL career is almost surely over, and Little is without a team as an unsigned free agent. 

Torrey Smith, on the other hand, has built a name for himself as a deep threat and will be a featured receiver for the San Francisco 49ers this season. Matthews and Landry appear headed for big things with their respective teams, as well. 

That being said, as previously mentioned, one of the biggest issues facing Devin Smith is the Jets' uncertainty at quarterback. Coupled with the Jets' backlog of talented receivers (Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley could all be ahead of Smith on the depth chart), it doesn't appear as though Smith is primed for a highly productive rookie campaign. 

As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini points out, though, Smith's fate is in his own hands:

"

If he can absorb the offense, improve his route running and develop an ability to read coverages, he'll have a chance to make an early impact. He has the kind of game-breaking skills they need on offense. I wouldn't expect him to steal playing time from Brandon Marshall or Eric Decker, but he could take time from Jeremy Kerley.

"

He can be effective when he's on the field thanks to the presence of the veteran wide receivers taking some of the attention away from the rookie, but those opportunities may be too few and far between for Smith to put up monster numbers like Landry and Matthews did in 2014. 

However, Smith's ability to line up both inside and outside could help him get onto the field more often than anticipated—especially if his playing time cuts into Kerley's. 

Smith may not be a frequent target, but he should get looks on big plays. It would be reasonable to expect him to finish his rookie season with at least 30 receptions for 450 yards (15 yards per reception) and a pair of touchdowns.