MLB All-Star Game 2015: Bold Predictions and Picks for the Midsummer Classic
Starting pitching and superstars from both sides will determine who earns home-field advantage in the World Series when the American League and National League clash Tuesday in the 2015 MLB All-Star Game.
The Houston Astros’ Dallas Keuchel (11-4, 2.23 ERA) will take the hill for Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost and the American League. Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.39 ERA) of the Los Angeles Dodgers will start for San Francisco Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the National League.
Greinke has been stellar for the Dodgers this season, but he may end up in some trouble against this AL lineup. Keuchel leads an AL pitching staff featuring eight first time All-Stars, according to Bleacher Report’s Tyler Conway. The group may be slightly inexperienced, but they may be the key to an AL victory.
Bryce Harper, 22, of the Washington Nationals and Mike Trout, 23, of the Los Angeles Angels lead a youth movement that will take over Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for the Midsummer Classic. A record 20 players under the age of 25 are on the two rosters, per the Star Tribune.
Here are some bold predictions for the game based on statistics, history and the abilities of some of the key players involved.
Greinke Will Give Up at Least Two Runs
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Arguably the favorite for the National League Cy Young, Greinke has been the best pitcher on a staff that includes Clayton Kershaw. He also has not allowed a run in five straight starts, which adds up to 35.2 innings.
Greinke’s big year and recent dominance made him an easy choice to start for the NL. However, that decision could end up costly for the team because of the right-hander’s history against the AL starting lineup.
Take a look at each hitter’s career statistics, in batting order, against Greinke:
| Player | At-bats | Hits | Average |
| Mike Trout | 7 | 3 | .429 |
| Josh Donaldson | 3 | 1 | .333 |
| Albert Pujols | 23 | 8 | .348 |
| Nelson Cruz | 15 | 4 | .267 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 3 | 2 | .667 |
| Adam Jones | 11 | 5 | .455 |
| Salvador Perez | 6 | 2 | .333 |
| Jose Altuve | 12 | 6 | .500 |
| Alcides Escobar | 10 | 5 | .500 |
Besides Cruz, every hitter in the AL lineup is hitting over .333. This also includes players like Altuve, Escobar, Jones and Pujols who all have sample sizes over 10 at-bats. Even Cruz, who has the lowest average of this list, is hitting a respectable .267 against Greinke.
These numbers do not look promising for the NL. Starting pitchers usually throw around two innings, but Greinke may not even last that long if history holds true.
Look for the AL to possibly hit around the order by the second inning and jump out to an early lead.
AL Pitchers Will Shine
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Youth may have its disadvantages, and experience is always helpful, but this AL staff should fare well regardless.
Keuchel has a favorable history against the NL hitters, with Jhonny Peralta providing the biggest threat with three hits and two walks in five at-bats against the Houston lefty.
The bullpen also features multiple hard-throwing relievers that excel in the one-inning pitching situations the All-Star Game provides. Pitchers like the Royals’ Wade Davis and Yankees' Dellin Betances should top 100 mph and shut down the NL lineup one inning at a time.
Throw in former Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners, and the AL should be able to hold off the NL after Greinke allows a couple of runs.
In the case of any pitches getting away from the AL, the team sports a phenomenal defense that provides an advantage over the opponent. According to FanGraphs, the AL have five of the top 20 best defensive players in baseball.
Look for players like Trout and Kansas City’s Lorenzo Cain to make some great plays to help contain the NL.
Harper Will Reach Base Three Times
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Harper is arguably the best player on the NL roster, and his numbers this season back up that claim. He is batting an outstanding .339 with 26 home runs and 61 RBIs.
The NL will expect its best player to step up and have a big game. Given Harper’s current level of play, and his history against the AL pitching staff, he should be able to come through with an impactful performance.
In particular order, take a look at Harper’s stats against the AL’s active pitchers, particularly his on-base percentage:
| Player | Hits | Average | Walks | OBS |
| Dallas Keuchel | 0 | .000 | 1 | .333 |
| Chris Archer | 2 | .400 | 1 | .500 |
| Wade Davis | 2 | .667 | 0 | .667 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 0 | .000 | 1 | 1.000 |
| Felix Hernandez | 2 | .667 | 0 | .667 |
| Darren O'Day | 0 | .000 | 2 | 1.000 |
| David Price | 0 | .000 | 1 | .333 |
Those numbers are very strong, and it's a testament to how well Harper can get himself on base. Of the active AL pitchers, Harper has not faced Betances, Tampa Bay's Brad Boxberger, Baltimore's Zach Britton and Chicago's Chris Sale. This may force Yost to shake up his bullpen around Harper because the pitchers listed in the chart above are not good matches.
No matter how, Harper should find himself on base plenty Tuesday. He is also a skilled baserunner whose speed and aggressive style has made him a threat to steal bases. He even recorded 18 stolen bases as a rookie in 2012.
Look for Harper to put pressure on the young AL pitching staff by spending plenty of time on the base paths.
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Trout Wins MVP Again
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This is not a huge shock given Trout’s status as arguably baseball’s best all-around player, winner of the league’s MVP award in 2014 and All-Star Game MVP last season. Going into Tuesday’s game, the outfielder has all the tools to repeat.
Trout went 2-for-3 with a triple and two RBIs last year, so he obviously has the experience needed to come through under the pressure of a national spotlight.
Against the NL pitching staff, he could duplicate such offensive numbers. With Trout’s impressive history against Greinke already in mind, here are his statistics against some other opposing pitchers:
| Player | At-bats | Hits | Average |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 0 | .000 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 2 | 2 | .500 |
| Gerrit Cole | 3 | 0 | .000 |
| Mark Melancon | 2 | 0 | .000 |
| Shelby Miller | 3 | 2 | .667 |
He does not have a vast history against the NL staff, but he has fared OK, particularly against Chapman and Millerm in addition to Greinke. Trout also has not faced about half of the NL pitchers, including San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner and Philadelphia's Jonathan Papelbon.
Trout also has the potential to rob home runs and make spectacular diving catches in the field. These types of plays would help Trout stand out when looking at possible MVP candidates.
Given his past excellence in the All-Star Game and his prowess at the plate and in the field, Trout appears primed to win the honor once again. Expect Trout to continue to assert himself as the face of MLB with another award for his trophy case.
Prediction
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The AL will make it three straight with another win Tuesday thanks to Trout, a lineup advantage and strong pitching and defense.
Gaining a home-field advantage in the World Series has not translated to an inside track at winning a world championship.
Since MLB implemented the rule in 2003, the AL has won the All-Star Game nine times to the NL’s three. In that same span, the NL has won the World Series seven times.
Bochy knows this, and he will not let a defeat bring down any hopes of repeating as World Series champions. Last season, his Giants went into Kansas City and won the decisive Game 7.
AL wins 4-1.
All statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com.
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