Penguins-Red Wings: Taking the Stanley Cup Finals One Game at a Time

Here's hoping I do as well at this as I did in the third (2 for 2) or even first round of the playoffs (6 correct winners, two in the exact number of games and three only one game off). 

If I do as poorly as the second round (2-2), which left me with only the Wings left of my original prediction, I am toast: I had them losing to the Rangers because I thought they'd be worn down from playing the Sharks.

For purposes of the contest, I will break down the series by the criteria that earn points, with all those entries being in bold to make them easier to find.  (I am hoping nothing I say will help my competition since I am submitting my entry just over two hours before the puck drops.)

Winner: The Wings are not worn down, and their experience will carry them over the Penguins.  A team usually has to get there before they are ready to win, and there is no preparing for the pressure and intensity of this level, especially if it goes to Game Seven.  If Pittsburgh were playing a lesser team, they might just be better enough to take it anyway, but they drew Detroit.

Where will the series be clinched?  Joe Louis Arena in Detroit.

How many games?  Seven: the Penguins are too deep and too talented, and will have slightly fresher legs.

Game One: The Penguins have fresher legs, but will be rusty like they were in Game One against the Rangers.  However, Detroit will not let them back into the game the way New York did.  That and playing in their first Finals will more than compensate for Detroit being without Johan Franzen.  I see Kris Draper hitting the game winner in a 4-2 win. He has not had a good post-season by his standards, and the Wings will need some secondary scoring because of the way they will play Detroit's top line defensively.

Game Two: Franzen may be back by this game, but I doubt he will be back to form.  The series will not have all the games won at home by either team, and this is the Penguins' best chance to steal a game at the Joe.  The most logical pick for the game winner would be Evgeni Malkin, but I am going with a guy who won't have Niklas Lidstrom locked up on him, Jordan Staal, and I will say this will be an Osgood let down game, 5-3.

Game Three: Detroit will bounce back with a dominating performance that the Penguins have had to endure in the weak Eastern Conference they have rolled through.  Osgood will actually outplay Fleury for the first of maybe two times in the series (helped by a defense that holds the Penguins under two dozen shots), and Henrik Zetterberg will net the game winner in the second period in this 3-1 game.

Game Four: Pittsburgh will make some adjustments and pride will be enough to get them this win, but they will have to struggle for it, 3-2, and I think this one even goes to overtime.  Because of that, I see leadership being the key to the game winner, so I was thinking of going with Gary Roberts, but I the longer the game goes, the harder it is for a 40-year old to put in quality minutes.  We all know OT games do not have penalties called, so it is unlikely to be Sergei Gonchar, either.  Thus, we have to find a power forward, and based on the leadership he showed in Crosby's absence, I am going with Evgeni Malkin.

Game Five: Pittsburgh will look bad in this one and people will begin writing them off.  Detroit will score early and often and Fleury may even get run to get him some rest.  Johan Franzen will get the game winner in a 6-1 blow-out.

Game Six: Pittsburgh will show its character with a gritty performance that will help make them champions in two of the next three or four seasons, pulling this one out 4-3 on a power play goal by Sergei Gonchar that will ensure that the Pens management makes him the top priority to re-sign.

Game Seven: Detroit will just have too much for the Penguins in the most intense game possible in the most intense sport out there. It is a difficult place for anyone who does not sport a winged wheel on their jersey.  At some point in this game their younger, fresher legs will give them an advantage, but the experience of the Wings will cause them to make fewer mistakes, and that is the team that wins these games.  For sentimental reasons, I would like to pick Chris Chelios to score the clincher in what I believe will finally be his last game now that he is old enough to go right to Social Security (and that wasn't just a cheap excuse to use that line).  However, this is a competition, and anyone who knows me knows I would run over my brother even just to win a T-shirt, so I'm going with Pavel Datsyuk in a 4-2 contest, and I'll give Chelios an empty-netter to finish his career.

Conn Smythe: Henrik Zetterberg

Postseason Leading Goal Scorer: Evgeni Malkin

Postseason Points Leader: Sidney Crosby (may be a tie with Zetterberg, but since Henrik will have done it in two more games, I give the tie-break to Sid)

Best Goalie Save Percentage: Marc-Andre Fleury, who will remain at .925 or better and edge out Osgood by about .005.

Best Goalie GAA: Chris Osgood, whose current 1.60 will climb to about 1.90 but still edge out Fleury by about .3 goals per contest because he will face about 60 fewer shots than his young counterpart in the Finals.