New York Jets' Projected Final 53-Man Roster, Pre-Training Camp Edition
Now that the New York Jets have completed the spring workout program, it's time to move onto the real proving ground for NFLers trying to make the cut: training camp.
We are less than three weeks away from heated roster battles, veterans jockeying for position on the depth chart, rookies trying to prove they have what it takes to play at the professional level, coaches trying to install new schemes and all the excitement and anxious anticipation that comes with football in the summer.
Perhaps no team—or their fanbase—is going through more of that anxious anticipation than the Jets. With one offseason move after another, the Jets loaded up for the 2015 season in a clear effort to make a run at the playoffs in Year 1 of the Todd Bowles era.
Before we can even think about games in January, though, the Jets have a lot to accomplish in August, like sorting out their depth chart. Here's one opinion on how the Jets' final 53-man roster could look after training camp.
Quarterback
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Starter: Geno Smith
Backups: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty
Make no mistake; if there were a real battle between Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting quarterback job, the competition would be one of the most closely scrutinized in New York this summer, perhaps in the entire NFL. Todd Bowles has already said, however, that the job is Geno Smith's to lose.
That seems to indicate that, unless Smith stinks up the joint or Fitzpatrick plays flawlessly, the Jets' starting quarterback in 2015 will be the same as their starting quarterback in 2013 and 2014.
Any of the three Jets quarterbacks would be a good fit in Chan Gailey's spread system that lets its quarterbacks hang back in the shotgun and helps create space and matchups in the secondary by forcing multiple defensive backs to run and cover. All three excel in that kind of system, and Gailey is also known for letting his quarterbacks run with the ball as well.
Fitzpatrick could earn the starting job with time, but for now, it's all on Smith.
Running Back
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Starter: Chris Ivory
Backups: Stevan Ridley, Bilal Powell, Daryl Richardson
The Jets have made significant changes to their coaching staff, but that doesn't mean it's safe to say that the ground-and-pound mentality has also left the fold. Todd Bowles brought in Chan Gailey as his offensive coordinator not because of Gailey's extensive experience with the passing game and spread formations, but for his ability to establish a running game.
The Jets may not lead the league in rushing attempts—or even rank in the top 10—but the running game will still be vital to the success of the offense. That's why the Jets have focused so many resources on their offensive backfield this offseason in signing Stevan Ridley and Daryl Richardson and trading for Zac Stacy from the St. Louis Rams.
Between those three, Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, the Jets have five talented running backs in their employ. That being said, someone isn't going to make the cut, and that "someone" may be Stacy. The Jets only forfeited a seventh-round pick for Stacy, who has not been very effective in his first two years in the NFL (326 carries, 1,266 yards, 3.9 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns in two years).
Ivory has been the starter for the past two years and is still the most talented runner in the Jets backfield. Powell has been the team's primary back on passing downs, which should earn him some respect from the coaching staff this summer. Ridley has shown his talent in the past, and if he can recover from a torn ACL, he could also make the cut. Richardson has shown explosive potential and can contribute in the passing game, and would be a great backup for Powell in that role.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Kerley
Backups: Devin Smith, Shaq Evans, Saalim Hakim
The top four are the only roster locks, and the other spots are up for grabs
Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall are no-brainers at the top of the depth chart. The Jets have not had a pair of boundary receivers with this combination of size and speed in years. Both men will open up the whole offense for whoever is throwing the ball for the Jets in 2015.
The questions begin at the No. 3 spot and run all the way down the remainder of the depth chart. Jeremy Kerley would appear to be a lock as a top receiver, given the four-year, $14 million contract extension he just signed in October. That being said, the deal was negotiated by the previous regime, and although Kerley should make the 2015 roster, things could change at that point.
We know Chan Gailey tends to prefer bigger slot receivers (6'5" David Nelson, for example), but he doesn't completely ignore the smaller ones (5'11" T.J. Graham, for another example). In either case, look for rookie Devin Smith to make a push for some playing time and some serious targets. The Jets' second-round draft pick has experience both on the boundary and in the slot, and his ability to line up in both spots could help him produce in his first NFL season.
There are several backups who could make a push for the roster, starting with second-year receivers Shaq Evans and Quincy Enunwa. According to NFL.com's Nolan Nawrocki, Evans does not have elite long-speed, but he has the skill set as a "zone-beating" target who can run short routes over the middle and help the Jets convert third downs into first downs.
Saalim Hakim may be a wide receiver by name only, but there's always room on the roster for a special teams ace who can run downfield and cover punts to help in the all-important battle for field position. Hakim registered seven special teams tackles in 2014, third-most on the team.
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Tight End
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Starter: Jace Amaro
Backup: Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Davis
Here's one battle that's hard to predict and should be wide-open.
The Jets drafted Texas Tech tight end Jace Amaro in the second round in 2014, and although he was a product of the previous regime, he should still be in the Jets' future plans on offense. The 6'5", 265-pound tight end is not much of a blocker just yet, but his ability as a receiver should earn him plenty of looks in the Jets' spread offense.
Jeff Cumberland is the more well-rounded of the two tight ends, but he has far less upside in terms of big-play potential. He is entering the final year of his contract, so the Jets could be gearing up to move in another direction following the 2015 season. In 2014, Cumberland posted his lowest totals in receptions and yards since the 2012 season when he first became a starter, so there's a chance he's already being phased out.
Kellen Davis has been primarily a blocking tight end throughout his career. The Jets don't have any other tight ends quite like that (besides Steve Maneri, a former offensive tackle), so Davis should make the roster thanks to his ability to fill a need and a niche. That being said, Chan Gailey has not placed a premium on blocking tight ends in the past, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Jets go with only two tight ends in 2015.
Offensive Line
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Starters: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, James Carpenter, Nick Mangold, Oday Aboushi, Breno Giacomini
Backups: Brian Winters, Brent Qvale, James Brewer
The Jets are pinning their offensive line on hopes and maybes. The hope is that D'Brickashaw Ferguson simply suffered a down year in 2014 and that Nick Mangold can sustain his high level of play through his early-30s. The "maybe" is when it comes to the guard spot, where the Jets may or may not have two starting-caliber players.
The Jets signed James Carpenter away from the Seattle Seahawks this offseason. He wasn't much of a fit in the Seahawks' zone-blocking scheme, but the 6'5", 321-pound Carpenter should be a better fit in a mauling man-blocking style of line like the Jets run. After earning $5 million guaranteed, it seems pretty clear that the Jets hope Carpenter will be a starter.
The other spot will be contested between Brian Winters, Oday Aboushi and Willie Colon. Aboushi had a solid first year as a starter in 2014, filling in for the injured Winters. Colon has started for the past two years on the Jets line, but at 32 years old and with a long history of injuries, the Jets should probably start considering their long-term options. Winters is cheap on the payroll and should still be a backup, but Colon's spot could be in jeopardy. The Jets could save $600,000 by cutting him.
Rookie Brent Qvale has been getting first-team reps at right guard, according to Dom Cosentino of NJ Advance Media, so expect him to be a top backup. Veteran James Brewer has experience everywhere except center, and would be a great backup to fill in at any of those spots.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison
Backups: Leonard Williams, Stephen Bowen, Leger Douzable
Thanks to a surplus of first-round picks on the defensive line, the Jets have one of the most stacked units up front on defense in the entire NFL. Even with all that talent, they could be shorthanded at the start of the season.
As we speak, Muhammad Wilkerson and the Jets are embroiled in a contractual dispute. Wilkerson showed up to practices in June, but he has even more leverage in his negotiations with the Jets now that 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson has been suspended for four games for violating the league's substance-abuse policy.
No matter what happens with Wilkerson's contract, rookie first-round pick Leonard Williams is a virtual lock to start in Week 1 due to Richardson's suspension. The No. 6 overall pick should be up to the challenge of starting right out of the gate, but like any rookie, he would be better off with some time to learn.
Damon Harrison has developed from an undrafted rookie into a quality NFL nose tackle. The 6'4", 350-pound nose tackle has an ability to hold his gaps in a two-gap system, making him one of very few true 0-technique defensive tackles left in the NFL. The Jets may want to try to keep someone on their roster with a similar build to Harrison in case he gets injured, but when it comes to the No. 5 and 6 spots on the depth chart, their best talents are Stephen Bowen and Leger Douzable.
Outside Linebacker
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Starters: Quinton Coples, Lorenzo Mauldin
Backups: Deion Barnes, Julian Howsare, Trevor Reilly, Calvin Pace
For years, the Jets have been fighting through a lack of talented young outside linebackers in their defense. By making one third-round draft pick, though, the Jets seem to have brought that fight to an end.
Louisville outside linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin has played in both a 3-4 (as an outside linebacker) and a 4-3 (as a defensive end). At 6'4" and 259 pounds with 33" arms, he has the frame to hold up on the edge. He isn't the most athletic guy on the field, and he doesn't have great agility to bend around a corner (as evidenced in a 7.47-second three-cone drill at the 2015 NFL Scouting Combine). What he lacks in agility, though, he makes up in straight-line burst and a nonstop motor to beat tackles.
On the opposite side, the Jets have been developing a young pass-rusher for years. Former first-round pick Quinton Coples was not an immediate success upon entering the NFL, but he has become a more productive pass-rusher each year in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. In his defense, the outside linebacker position is relatively new to him; he spent his college career and the first two years of his NFL career playing with his hand in the dirt as a true defensive end.
The questions may have stopped at the top of the depth chart, but they are just beginning at the bottom of the roster.
Veteran Calvin Pace has been a fixture in the Jets defense ever since he joined the team in 2008, but it may be time to begin seeking out alternatives to the 34-year-old outside linebacker. Look for an undrafted rookie, such as Deion Barnes or Julian Howsare, to capitalize on Pace's potential exodus. Both men have more athleticism than Pace, and both men are 12 years younger than Pace, giving them much more long-term upside.
A former seventh-round pick, Trevor Reilly is far from guaranteed to make the roster, but he has burst as a pass-rusher and special teams experience to go along with it. Given a legitimate chance, he should make the cut.
Inside Linebacker
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Starters: David Harris, Demario Davis
Backups: Jamari Lattimore, Taiwan Jones, Joe Mays
The Jets defensive scheme isn't changing much, and neither should the starting lineup at inside linebacker. David Harris and Demario Davis have started on the inside for two straight years, and this should make three. Both men have been fully healthy for the past two years, and the Jets are banking on continued health for both.
Their depth is a little shaky.
Jamari Lattimore, Taiwan Jones and Joe Mays should all make nice reserve linebackers with a combination of experience (Lattimore and Mays) and youth (Jones) to fill the blanks on the depth chart.
Lattimore has been an excellent run-stuffing linebacker, and should continue in that role as well as contributing on special teams. The same will be said for Jones, although after running a 4.95-second 40-yard dash, he may not be asked to race downfield on kickoff and punt coverage.
The fifth spot should come down to Mays and Erin Henderson, with Mays winning out thanks to his experience on special teams. Mays is also the more well-suited of the two linebackers in coverage.
Cornerback
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Starters: Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie
Backups: Buster Skrine, Dee Milliner, Marcus Williams
The phrase "roller-coaster ride" is a cliche at this point, but it's the most accurate way to describe the Jets secondary over the years. From Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie's dominance, to the questions of Revis' departure and the arrival of then-rookie Dee Milliner, to the debacle of 2014 and now back to Revis and Cromartie, the Jets secondary has come full-circle.
Revis tore his ACL in 2012 and then spent 2013 playing in a zone scheme that was not a fit for his shutdown skill set. Some were questioning whether he would return to his former level of play, but he immediately answered those questions and allowed completions on just 51.9 percent of throws into his coverage in the 2014 regular season. He also allowed only two touchdowns while logging two interceptions and 11 pass breakups, according to PFF.
Cromartie faced similar questions in 2014 after a down year which resulted in him becoming a salary-cap casualty at roughly $10 million. The 2014 season proved to be a redemption tour for him with the Arizona Cardinals, though, as Todd Bowles helped him rediscover the magic that made him a great complement to Revis. Cromartie allowed 59.3 percent completions into his coverage, while allowing only two touchdowns with three interceptions and six pass breakups.
But not much needed to be said about those two. They are entrenched as the starters.
In backup duties, the most likely winners seem to be Buster Skrine, Dee Milliner and Marcus Williams. Whoever is on the field with Revis and Cromartie will have a giant bull's-eye on his back, due simply to the fact that opposing passers will want to stay away from the Jets' top two cornerbacks.
Skrine appears to be the front-runner for slot duty, despite struggling in the recent past. He allowed only 56.9 percent completions into his coverage, but he yielded eight touchdowns and intercepted only four passes. At 5'9" and 186 pounds, he's a bit smaller than the average Jets cornerback, but he has the smarts and athleticism to make up for it.
It's only Milliner's third year, but it could be a make-or-break year for the former No. 9 overall pick. He tore his Achilles and spent 2014 on injured reserve, and coupled with some other injuries in the secondary, Marcus Williams earned and seized an opportunity to prove himself. Williams' experience and Milliner's talent should earn them roster spots over other unproven cornerbacks.
Safety
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Starters: Marcus Gilchrist, Calvin Pryor
Backups: Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett
The Jets have already proclaimed Calvin Pryor and Marcus Gilchrist to be their starting safeties in 2015. Pryor will return to his more natural position as a strong safety while Gilchrist plays the free safety spot.
The problem with that logic is that it puts the Jets right back where they were last year. Pryor's time at free safety was not because it's where he fit best, but because it's where the team most desperately needed the help. The Jets had too many strong safeties and not enough free safeties last year, but they are hoping for different results despite a similar roster makeup in 2015.
Gilchrist has played nearly every spot in the secondary, but his coverage deficiencies make him a much better fit as a strong safety than anywhere else. He played strong safety in his final two years with the San Diego Chargers, but in order to fit at free safety, he'll have to discover some sideline-to-sideline range and ball skills.
Antonio Allen is a primary backup at strong safety, but was miscast last year as a cornerback due to the team's deficiency at that position. He has enough special teams experience to ensure his spot on the roster. Jaiquawn Jarrett played mostly free safety for the Jets last year and would make a nice backup to the Gilchrist experiment; if things go badly, at least the Jets have someone experienced who can step in.
Specialists
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Kicker: Nick Folk
Punter: Ryan Quigley
Long Snapper: Tanner Purdum
There are competitions all over the special teams unit.
Nick Folk will be competing with second-year kicker Andrew Furney in 2015, although Furney lost last year's competition. Folk had the best year of his career in 2013, when he made 91.7 percent of his field-goal attempts, but he took a step back in 2014 with only an 82.1 percent conversion rate. He'll have to get back on track to keep his spot for the foreseeable future.
Veteran Ryan Quigley and rookie Jacob Schum will be duking it out for punting privileges. Quigley has done a fine job of making sure his punts aren't returned, with only 32.1 percent of his punts being returned last year. He also averaged 40.4 net yards per punt, 10th-highest in the NFL last year.
Purdum has been the long snapper since 2010, and after being brought back on a one-year deal, it looks like the new regime wants to give him a chance to continue on his path.
Full 53-Man Roster Projection
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QB (3): Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty
RB (4): Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, Stevan Ridley, Daryl Richardson
WR (6): Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Kerley, Devin Smith, Shaq Evans, Saalim Hakim
TE (3): Jace Amaro, Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Davis
OL (8): D'Brickashaw Ferguson, James Carpenter, Nick Mangold, Oday Aboushi, Breno Giacomini, Brian Winters, Brent Qvale, James Brewer
DL (6): Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison, Leonard Williams, Stephen Bowen, Leger Douzable
OLB (6): Quinton Coples, Lorenzo Mauldin, Deion Barnes, Julian Howsare, Trevor Reilly, Calvin Pace
ILB (5): David Harris, Demario Davis, Jamari Lattimore, Taiwan Jones, Erin Henderson
CB (5): Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, Dee Milliner, Marcus Williams
S (4): Marcus Gilchrist, Calvin Pryor, Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett
ST (3): Nick Folk, Ryan Quigley, Tanner Purdum
Unless otherwise noted, all advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus and all salary-cap and contract information provided by Over The Cap.
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