Ferrari's 2016 Driver Decision Will Be an Important Moment in Formula 1 History
How times change.
The race for a Ferrari seat was once an exclusive club, populated by established world champions and serial grand prix winners alike.
Only the truly premier drivers—and occasionally a couple just beneath the elite, depending on the team's stance on team orders—were in contention to represent the Prancing Horse in the pinnacle of motorsport.
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Those without a title or two, countless race victories and plenty of podiums and pole positions to their name need not apply.
Such a system helped to preserve Ferrari's majesty, their status at the summit. It provided emerging racing drivers, Formula One drivers, with ambition, a purpose and a dream.
But now? That dream is within reach of too many.
Partly, but not entirely, as a result of the life-threatening injuries sustained in the 2014 Japanese Grand Prix by Jules Bianchi—who would have moved to Sauber for this season, continuing his natural progression to the Italian team, according to Sky Sports' Pete Gill—the struggle for a Ferrari seat is perhaps more intense than ever before.
Around a quarter of the current grid are part of the stampede to replace Kimi Raikkonen, who—despite team principal Maurizio Arrivabene's comments to Autosport's Glenn Freeman that "his future is in his hands"—appears increasingly likely to depart the Prancing Horse at the end of the current campaign.
It is not so much a reflection of the vast pool of talent in modern-day F1 as it is an indication of the current state of Ferrari, who, without a world title of any kind since 2008, are no longer the standard-setters and consequently seem more accessible than in previous years.
Yet the choice of driver to partner Sebastian Vettel, the four-time world champion, for 2016 and beyond will be a significant development in the recent history of Formula One.
The most qualified to succeed Raikkonen are three-times grand prix winner Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas, who has secured seven podium finishes in the last 12 months.
But the effect of signing Ricciardo and Bottas, as quick as they are, would be nothing compared to the impact on their current employers, Red Bull Racing and Williams respectively.
Losing Ricciardo—who recently told BBC Sport's Andrew Benson of his openness to a move—so soon after watching Vettel flee to Ferrari would be the latest blow to Red Bull in their swift fall from grace since their most recent title triumph in 2013.
A team who have long prided themselves on nurturing young talent would be developing that talent to the benefit of other, more established outfits, raising further questions over what Red Bull can realistically extract from F1 at a time when their continued involvement in the sport is far from certain.
Like Southampton Football Club, who have recently built a reputation for their ability to develop young players before selling them to larger clubs, Red Bull would be reduced to an academy, a mere feeder team, rendering their entire junior-driver program—including Red Bull's B-team, Scuderia Toro Rosso—meaningless.
It would be a similar situation if Williams were to be separated from Bottas, who has become the face of the team's resurgence since the beginning of 2014.
The Grove-based outfit are currently enjoying their most productive spell for over decade, but any hopes of recreating their title-winning exploits of years gone by would be extinguished if Williams were to lose one of their biggest assets, as it would confirm the team simply can't compete against powerhouses of the calibre of Ferrari and Mercedes in the current era.
Nico Hulkenberg, meanwhile, is very much the people's choice in the Ferrari fight, having been overlooked by leading teams for so long despite producing consistently strong performances for Williams, Sauber and Force India.
As noted in the aftermath of his victory in the Le Mans 24 Hours—one of the most tremendous feats in modern motor racing—earning a leading drive on the back of his Circuit de la Sarthe success could see Hulkenberg bridge the sizeable gap between F1 and the World Endurance Championship, teaching the sport an instructive lesson.
Arguably, the most compelling options available to Ferrari, however—and the two we should all fear—are a couple of Hulkenberg's team-mates, both former and current.
In a separate BBC Sport article, Benson claimed Ferrari are the subject of "pressure from their Mexican sponsors" to promote Esteban Gutierrez, the former Sauber driver and the Italian team's 2015 reserve, for next season.
While Gutierrez deserves another shot in F1, having been prevented the chance to showcase his true speed at Sauber, it is Mexico's current representative on the grid who could benefit from the sponsors' efforts.
Sergio Perez, once a member of Ferrari's young-driver scheme, is very much the dark horse in the tussle to replace Raikkonen, having recovered well from an underwhelming campaign at McLaren in 2013.
But despite faring well alongside Hulkenberg since last season, claiming Force India's first podium finish in five years, there is little doubt that Perez—in terms of talent and results—has not yet done enough to warrant a second opportunity with a front-running team.
And if the Prancing Horse do sign either Gutierrez or Perez, it would send a most alarming message throughout F1.
Even Ferrari, for all their history, heritage and 222 grand prix wins, are vulnerable to the money men.
Even Ferrari, in an era when small teams are struggling to survive, can succumb to the flood of pay drivers.
Even Ferrari, at a time when a brand of McLaren's calibre cannot attract a title sponsor, must prioritise pounds over prizes.
The process of replacing Raikkonen, if indeed that is the path Ferrari take, is not the lightbulb change many teams face when it comes to securing a new signing.
With a rare range of options and their shortlist longer—if a little weaker—than ever, Ferrari's decision, whoever the chosen one may be, will have repercussions on existing teams and Formula One itself.
No pressure, Maurizio.
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