NFL Preview: Experts' Predictions Analysis

(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

This is the fun part of football, where everyone pretends to be an expert by making playoff predictions for the 09-10 NFL season. I warn you, as the common internet reader, that this predicting gig should only be left to experts. The media members who get paid to follow the NFL have more knowledge, background, and understanding of what has happened and what is going to happen this season. Well, at least they think they do.

Below is the amount of new playoff teams that have made the playoffs each year since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990-1991.

5-6-5-5-4-5-5-5-7-6-6-5-8-5-7-7-6-7

In 16 of the 18 years, 5, 6 or 7 new teams have made the playoffs. When making predictions for the upcoming season, no matter which teams are predicted, the experts should pick at least 5 new playoff teams. This is pretty common knowledge that the NFL is constantly changing and new teams come out of nowhere. It’s common knowledge to us, obviously not to the NFL experts. I reviewed 31 predictions from NFL experts (in honor of the amount of blackouts Jacksonville, Oakland, Detroit and St. Louis will have combined) and below are the results.

The Smart Ones:

7 New Playoff Teams – 1 out of 31 – Don Banks of CNNSI – He used intelligent analysis to guess that the NFC will have a lot of turnover and since 3 of the last 4 years 7 new teams have made the playoffs, 7 is a pretty smart guess.

6 New Playoff Teams – 3 out of 31 – Hub Arkush of Pro Football Weekly, Adam Schefter of ESPN and Seth Wickersham of ESPN – These 3 analysts reviewed schedules and made some bold predictions, yet they are definitely possible. All possibilities except Hub’s pick of the Bills to make the playoffs. I’ll get to the team analysis in a bit.

5 New Playoff Teams – 2 out of 31 – Peter King of CNNSI and Gene Wojciehowksi of ESPN – Two respected football journalists who mostly picked different teams yet came to the same conclusion, just because a team was good in 08 doesn’t mean they will be in 09.

The Passive Predictors:

4 New Playoff Teams – 6 out of 31 – Matt Williamson, Kevin Seifert, Len Pasquarelli, John Banks and Paul Kuharsky of ESPN and Peter Schrager of Fox Sports – I definitely will not question the football knowledge of these 6 people, since I know why they made their predictions. They are the writers who don’t want to receive a lot of mail mocking them for picking the Raiders or some out there team to make the playoffs. Most of their picks are really safe, except John Banks did pick the Texans to win the division.

I have to take a moment out to point out Peter Schrager, a very knowledgeable writer who lives on the edge. His sleeper team was the Bears, go crazy man. From that wild prediction article I pull this quote “Since 1996, 78 teams have made the playoffs after not qualifying the previous season — exactly 50% of the 156 playoff teams over that span. 2008 also marked the 13th consecutive season with at least five new playoff teams in the field of 12.” With that knowledge he picked 4 new teams. Fox Sports must initiate some sadistic torture ritual if a writer guesses too many wrong teams in his predictions.

The Football Experts in Name Only:

3 New Playoff Teams – 11 out of 31 – Kent Somers, Paola Boivon and Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic, Chris Schultz of TSN, Tony Moss of Sports Network, Paul Woody of the Richmond Times Dispatch, WVBR.com, Mike Williamson, Mike Sando, Pat Yasinskas and Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN – Since the NFL has expanded to 12 teams, there has never been a season where 3 or less new playoff teams make the playoffs, yet 61% of the NFL Experts I reviewed think this is the year it will happen. Given the fact that all of them had 1 of the 3 new teams as New England, and you can see where the level of stupidity builds. All of them have the Eagles making it because they got Michael Vick and they are trendy and because these experts don’t pay attention to football.

I’m sure Gregg Easterbrook is a lightning rod for fans, since he does have a lot of strong opinions about football. His punting and passive play analysis is some of the best information I’ve seen a writer discuss in years. Yet with all of the information in terms of facts he puts out there, he picks 3 teams. He also writes an annual bad prediction article, and that probably explains his incredible passiveness in his picks. He should have gone for it.

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