DeMarre Carroll Will Wind Up as $60 Million Bargain for Surging Toronto Raptors

A difference-maker for the Atlanta Hawks throughout the 2014-15 season, DeMarre Carroll is cashing in. Fresh off a postseason that even saw him score at least 20 points in six consecutive outings, he'll be joining the Toronto Raptors, helping them move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 

The small forward himself was the first to announce his plans through this Instagram post: 

But afterward, the details rolled in. Per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, he's going to be making quite a bit of cash over the next four years: 

Having sticker shock is understandable.

Contracts for non-stars haven't ever risen this high before, and it's understandable to initially think $60 million is far too much money for the only member of the Hawks' starting lineup who didn't make the All-Star squad. 

But given the skyrocketing cap and the league's new television deal that's causing it, this isn't exactly unreasonable. On the contrary, Carroll should prove that he's actually a bargain at that price, both because of the changing financial landscape in the Association and his ideal fit with the Raptors. 

The Money

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With such a dramatic shift in the financial landscape, it's best not to think about new contracts solely in terms of the number of dollars owed to the player. If you continue to do that, you must at least realize that $15 million per season is a lot different now than it was even a few years ago. 

Instead of focusing on that number, think instead about the percentage of the salary cap the contract eats up. That's far more important because that's what controls the money an organization can spend to roster other players. 

With that perspective in mind, here's what $15 million looks like over the next four seasons, using the expected numbers provided by DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony:

That's a substantial change in the next few years. 

In 2015-16, Carroll will account for 22.4 percent of the salary cap, but that percentage shrinks all the way to a meager 13.9 percent by 2017-18. For perspective, that means that $15 million in 2017-18 is about the equivalent of $8.8 million during the 2014-15 campaign. 

As Seth Partnow wrote for BBallBreakdown before Carroll signed his new deal, this is simply uncharted territory:

"

Moving past the the question of value is a reminder that this is uncharted territory for everyone involved. A side-effect of the relatively stable cap from year’s past is allowed for an easy understanding of how much given types of players are worth. When DeMarre Carroll, to pick an example, signs a new deal for over $10 million annually this summer (reportedly the Toronto Raptors), it will be a bit surprising. After all, he doesn’t seem like a $10m plus player, especially considering MVP Steph Curry makes just over $11 million next season. However, in the new paradigm, an equilibrium like the one which has been reached over the nearly 15 years of cap stability will take some time. Teams are going to miss high on some guys, and other players will sign deals which in retrospect turn out to be screaming bargains.

"

Strange as it may seem, this $60 million deal is not exorbitant given the changing context. It's not going to make Carroll an albatross on the Toronto ledgers, and it's not even going to seem that ridiculous once the world catches up with the thinking of the NBA's general managers. 

But the forward still has to prove he's going to be a strong fit with the roster. Even if a player is worth a certain amount of money, he has to be worth it to the team he's playing for. 

And Carroll will be.

The Fit

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Is Carroll a star? Even though he lifted the Hawks during the playoffs, exploding on offense and basically refusing to miss from beyond the arc before hurting his knee, he's not exactly going to earn celestial status. 

But this 28-year-old forward is a tremendous third or fourth option, and that's exactly the role he should fill north of the border. Instead of falling behind Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague in the pecking order, he'll cede touches to Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan while maximizing the ones that he does receive. 

Granted, Toronto's offense didn't really need a big boost. 

During the 2014-15 season, the Raptors scored 111 points per 100 possessions, which left them trailing only the machines known as the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. But they could have been even better, and that's where the Carroll addition will pay massive dividends.

And not just because they're no longer relying on a post-hype breakout from Terrence Ross but instead thinking of that possibility as a luxury. 

Under head coach Dwane Casey, Toronto typically counts on plenty of production from beyond the arc. In fact, it took more three-point attempts than all but eight teams throughout the Association last year. 

Problem is, the team hit on only 35.2 percent of its looks, leaving it right in the middle of the pack. That's where it can improve, and adding Carroll into the mix is surely a step in the right direction. After all, he took 4.3 deep attempts per game and connected at a 39.5 percent clip. In the playoffs, he was even better, taking an extra 0.2 tries during his average outing and hitting 40.3 percent of them. 

Immediately, Carroll will become the top perimeter threat on the roster: 

Player	3PA in 2014-15	3P% in 2014-15
DeMarre Carroll	4.3	39.5
Terrence Ross	4.8	37.2
Patrick Patterson	3.5	37.1
Delon Wright	2.1*	35.6*
Kyle Lowry	5.6	33.8
Norman Powell	3.3*	31.9*
DeMar DeRozan	1.5	28.4

Beyond that, he'll take pressure off the stars. 

Lowry clearly wore down as the season progressed, hamstrung by nagging injuries and the weight of the team he'd been carrying throughout the early portion of the campaign. And even though DeRozan improved during the stretch run, the point guard is far too important to the success of this team. His backcourt counterpart's efforts couldn't mitigate the decline, because when Lowry struggles, the team does as well. 

"Me? I'm trash," the Toronto 1-guard stated in late February, per Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun. "I'm trying to figure it out right now, to be honest with you. I don't know (how to fix it), that’s why I'm in here, working hard and trying to figure out what to do to get myself back on track."

Obviously, he was exaggerating. But his individual offensive rating did dip throughout the season, and the Raptors' overall mark followed suit: 

Month	Lowry's ORtng	Toronto's ORtng
October	123	116.6
November	120	115.1
December	121	117.4
January	101	109.1
February	88	100.8
March	117	113.2
April	96	113

For the most part, the Toronto offense ebbed and flowed with Lowry, declining dramatically midway through the year when he was self-deprecatingly comparing himself to garbage. But Carroll should be able to help counteract that if for no other reason than his ability to eat up the occasional possession and help Lowry keep his offensive involvement to reasonable levels.

Maintaining the point guard's health must be a top priority. 

On top of that, the new Raptor's versatility will look rather nice in an NBA that's necessitating small-ball lineups with increasing frequency. Carroll hasn't played power forward on a consistent basis in quite a long time, but he should be able to team up with an oversized Toronto backcourt—Lowry is 6'0" but has a bulldog mentality, while DeRozan is 6'7"—to make it work in short spurts. 

And even still, defense is where he'll aid this team the most. 

While the Raptors were a scoring powerhouse in 2014-15, the same wasn't true of their work on the point-preventing end. In fact, they posted a 107.7 defensive rating, which left them ahead of only the Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves. Those weren't teams you typically wanted to be associated with during this last season. 

Carroll can certainly help. 

Ron Turenne/Getty Images

The Hawks may have allowed more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, but that's entirely misleading. On/off statistics are largely dependent on both teammates and who spells you, so it was always going to be hard for Carroll to excel there when he was often replaced by either Thabo Sefolosha or Kent Bazemore. 

It should be far more telling that, according to 82games.com, he held opposing small forwards to a player efficiency rating of just 13.2—significantly below the league-average mark of 15. 

Granted, small forward wasn't the primary defensive weakness in Toronto. Ross could hold his own, as could DeRozan, when he slid over one spot in the lineup. But Carroll is still an upgrade there, and there's typically a trickle-down effect when one position gets even better. 

"DeMarre really sets the tone for us defensively, gives us our spirit and our identity," Atlanta head coach Mike Budenholzer said about his team's most notable defensive stopper back in January, per Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I just think that end of the court isn't appreciated enough, isn't given enough accolades and attention. We've got a long way to go defensively, but where we are, he plays a huge role in that."

Next January, Casey should be thinking the same thing. Even if the Raptors don't reach the level the Hawks achieved on the defensive end, they'll surely improve, and that could be just enough for them to move further up the standings in the Eastern Conference. 

If that happens, Carroll will inevitably be a bargain.

Yes, even at $60 million. 

All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.