Big Picture: Time To Create Plan For 2010 Cubs

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Entering 2009, the Chicago Cubs seemingly stood ready to declare themselves a dynasty. Coming off back-to-back Division titles, soured by back-to-back Division Series losses, Chicago nonetheless appeared poised to walk away with a third straight regular season Championship. A surprising level of turnover from a team that won 97 games in 2008 (some 36% of the roster had not been a part of the '08 team) did nothing to quell optimism that the Cubbies could easily overcome the rather watery competition in the National League Central.

New right fielder Milton Bradley had demonstrated his value in spring training, hitting around .400, and fellow off-season acquisition Kevin Gregg won the closer job with encouraging performances. All signs pointed to another playoff berth, and another chance to snap the long dry spell during which the Cubs have failed to win a pennant.

When the 2010 season opens next April, much will have changed within the Cubs organization. New ownership under Tom Ricketts will be firmly entrenched, renovations to Wrigley Field will likely be underway, and the team playing inside the ballpark will look substantially different from the underachieving 2009 model that fell out of serious contention in mid-August.

But which parts will be different, and how? Who will stay, who will go, and whose roles will be diminished or expanded next season? Those are the questions General Manager Jim Hendry faces as the long winter of Cubs' fans discontent approaches.

Hendry must begin by establishing a more coherent organizational philosophy for the Cubs. He must decide whether to prioritize a recovery of the patient offense that posted the league's highest on-base percentage in 2008; the bullpen, whose woes this season have been well-documented; or the defense that plunged from its place as the class of the NL in '08, to the absolute worst in '09. He has difficult decisions to make on the futures of Bradley, starting pitcher Rich Harden, lefty reliever John Grabow, and arbitration-eligible players like Ryan Theriot, Carlos Marmol, and Sean Marshall. To make the 2010 Cubs an improvement upon the 2009 version, he will need to approach the offseason aggressively, and unpack the tasks before him into three phases.

(Note: All contract information for 2009, as well as service time information and known 2010 contract info, is according to Cot's Contracts, a clearinghouse for MLB contract info: mlbcontracts.blogspot.com)

Posturing

The 2010 Cubs will be a team on the rebound, and as any good rebounder can tell you, it's all about getting good position. Thus, Hendry's first task will be to ensure that the Cubs are well-situated to make the moves they will need to make to return to contention. This begins immediately at the end of the World Series, when the clock begins ticking for clubs to decide whether they will offer salary arbitration to their free agents-to-be, and during which they may take advantage of exclusive negotiating rights.

Five current Cubs will be free agents after the season. Gregg is one of them, and presents the easiest set of choices to Hendry. He would make about five million dollars next year under arbitration rules, an exorbitant sum for a pitcher whose alarming homerun and walk rates led to his recent demotion from the closer's role. His tenure with Chicago is over.

John Grabow appears to present a more intriguing dilemma: he opened his Cubs career with 17 consecutive scoreless appearances and has a 3.03 ERA this year. Digging deeper into the numbers, however, Grabow's warts become apparent. His 1.28 strikeout-to-walk rate makes Carlos Marmol look rather like a control artist, and contributes to a sky-high 1.44 WHIP.

He has also allowed low batting averages on balls in play over the last two seasons (2008: .251; 2009: .272), a reflection of the stellar defense that supported him in Pittsburgh

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?