Will Fluidity of NASCAR Rules Mean Kyle Busch Makes the Chase After Sonoma Win?
Even after a stirring Sonoma Raceway victory, Kyle Busch’s path to the Chase for the Sprint Cup figures to be a long shot.
“Yeah, we have our work cut out for us,” Busch said after defeating his older brother, Kurt, for his 30th career victory in the Toyota/SaveMart 350. “We knew we did in the beginning … It’s unfortunate we’ve had a couple crashes.
“As much as I can do, that’s what we’re going to do.”
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Sonoma is a demanding road course and Busch conquered it in spite of pain. He suffered severe leg injuries in the first Xfinity Series race of the season. He hasn't fully recovered.
In practice on Friday, Busch said, “It got to about a 7 on a 1-to-10 scale of pain, but I went home and iced it and did everything I normally do to try to cut the pain out, and it worked.
“And then I did it again [Saturday] night. … It was the smart thing to do, and I made it through [the race]. You know, that’s all that mattered. I knew it was going to get painful and I was going to have to power through it. … It kind of started to cross my mind, but you know, when you’ve got fresh tires and seven laps to go, and you see the checkered flag waiting for you, you forget about all those things.”
| Race | Finish | Ranking |
| Charlotte | 11 | 41 |
| Dover | 36 | 40 |
| Pocono | 9 | 39 |
| Michigan | 43 | 39 |
| Sonoma | 1 | 37 |
Reaching the top 30 is not a task that is easily measurable. For instance, the occupant of that position changes week to week. It was Justin Allgaier after Michigan and Cole Whitt now. The best estimate that would place Busch in position to make the Chase as it now stands is that he will have to average over the next 10 races roughly a 13th-place finish.
NASCAR chairman and CEO Brian Z. France has already intervened once, granting Busch a waiver that made an appearance in the Chase possible. Could he cut one of the sport’s more exciting drivers more slack?
It has not been uncommon for NASCAR officials to change the rules on the fly.
Thirteenth place doesn’t sound that challenging until one considers that, even after the victory at Sonoma, his average finish for the season is 20th. And, as his car owner, Joe Gibbs, noted in the winning team’s media conference, his average for the entire 2014 season was 17.6.
“It shows how hard this is,” Gibbs said, “so we’ve got a tough assignment.”
Two years ago, the Chase was supposed to consist of 12 drivers, but a bit of chicanery in the final regular-season race–a little song, a little dance, a driver taking a little spin to bring out a caution flag--led the NASCAR mountains of Jell-O to add Jeff Gordon. The Chase became a Baker’s Dozen.
Now 16 make the Chase. One goal of the change was to make sure every race winner got in. So as to prevent a prominent driver from winning a race and then taking a race or two off, or maybe skipping the Coca-Cola 600 to race at Indy on Memorial Day Weekend, a stipulation was made to require all drivers to compete in every race.
France declared that Busch’s Daytona injuries were due in no small part to the fact that his car hit an area of Daytona International Speedway where SAFER barriers (i.e., protected, energy-absorbing walls) had not been installed.
Publicly conceding responsibility, France said, “that’s on us,” and awarded Busch a waiver that would allow him a slot in the Chase if he could win a race and reach the top 30 in the point standings by the time the Chase begins.
Now he’s got the win. Ten races remain in the regular season. If Busch wins all 10, he’ll reach the top 30 with ease. If he wins all 10, he might ride American Pharoah instead of his brightly colored Toyota.
Since he’s a race winner, would France grant him another waiver, one that would nullify the top-30 requirement?
Surely not, one would surmise. One would not be taking into the consideration the tradition of not letting rules get in the way of competition that has characterized NASCAR for its entire history.
France isn’t likely to make any pronouncement now. Why not wait and see what kind of rally an inspired Busch can make? Miracles are exciting. If he falls just short, that’s the time for the emperor to act, talking points in hand, magnanimously and with the interests of the fans in mind.
Let’s just take a look at the numbers. The current occupant of 30th place is Cole Whitt, who has competed in every race, compiled 263 points and achieved a likelihood of making the Chase that is roughly equal to that of Cole Trickle, the character played by Tom Cruise in the 1990 film Days of Thunder. Busch’s severe leg injuries kept him sidelined until the 12th race of the season. By winning at Sonoma, Busch shaved 37 points off the margin separating him from 30th place.
One cannot assess Busch’s chances, though, merely by the measure of his first victory of the season. In his first five races since recovering from injuries to both legs, the average finish has been 20th. In those five races, Busch has made a net gain on 30th place, Whitt, of 41 points, a margin only slightly greater than what he gained at Sonoma alone.
Busch placed 43rd in Michigan, then first at Sonoma. Before Sonoma, his best finish was ninth. He was 36th at Dover. If he keeps winning, or at least producing an unbroken string of top-five finishes, he can make it. From the outset, he could afford no serious missteps, and in five races, he has two.
So where does he go from here? With a victory under his belt, does he play it cautious or bold? Take Daytona next week, for instance. Huge crashes are common there. One wrong move might negate the edge gained from winning on the road course.
“We don’t have to race as hard for a win,” Busch said in his media conference. “We don’t have to put ourselves in a bad spot, when we’re running third, fourth or fifth to try to get that victory. We can just run third, fourth or fifth, and that’s a good day for us. That’ll be just fine.”
On the other hand, what would multiple victories do? If he wins three more times, but also has some subpar performances, it would seem to be make it harder to deprive him of a spot in the Chase.
Based on the requirements as established now, it’s still a tough task.
As history has proved as recently as May, when France granted the first waiver, it’s going to be hard for NASCAR officials to leave him out of the 10-race, championship extravaganza if he’s a multiple-race winner who happens not to be in the top 30 in points.
“It’s not going to be easy,” Busch said, “but we didn’t expect it to be, and it never is.”
All quotes are taken from NASCAR media, team and manufacturer sources unless otherwise noted.
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