Sports Marketwatch: MLB Edition

5/23/2008 4:00 PM EST

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Last weekend, the MLB MarketWatch started off on the wrong foot, with two underdog losers.  Let’s look at today’s sports marketplace and see what contrarian values we can find in MLB. 

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 0-2, 0%, -2.0 units

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates +157 over Chicago Cubs

Our contact at an offshore book highlighted this game as a big “sharp” play on the Pirates and their young stud pitcher, Z. Duke.  SportsInsights’ exclusive sports statistics also indicate that “smart money” is landing on the Pirates.

The Pirates have just 20% of the moneyline and teaser/parlay bets – but the line has moved from the Pittsburgh +171 opener down to Pitt +154 (at Pinnacle).  This indicates that some large bets are hitting the Pirates and driving the line lower – overwhelming the public, which is placing almost every bet (80%!) on the Cubs.  We’ll follow the lead of the “sharps” and take a competitive Pittsburgh team at home versus a Cub team that got off to a hot start and might be a bit overrated.

Pittsburgh Pirates +157  

San Diego +124 over Cincinnati Reds

Sports MarketWatch readers know that we often find value on teams that the public hates.  San Diego currently has the worst record in Major League Baseball.  Can you guess who the public hates?  Most people don’t want to bet on a bad team.  San Diego has won just .367 of its games and has been outscored by 70 runs in total (in about 50 games) this season. 

We love home dogs that are gathering less than 30% of the bets – especially in MLB.  The Padres are receiving a meager 20% of the bets – even against the last place Reds.  San Diego is playing almost .500 ball at home, while the Reds are winning less than 33% of their road games.  We’ll “bet against the public” and take San Diego at home with the “plus odds.” 

San Diego Padres +124

San Francisco Giants +150 over Florida Marlins

Are the Florida Marlins for real?  Is Barry Zito really washed up at age 30?  Is he as bad as his 0-8 record seems?  Barry Zito won over 100 games in the previous 7 seasons.  We don’t think that he’s the worst pitcher in the league like the public seems to think. 

We’ll take the contrarian view in this game, “buying” The Giants and Zito at a career low – and “sell” the first-place Marlins at their recent high.  At the time of this writing, this game is one of the day’s heaviest bet games, with a large 75% of the bets (moneyline and teaser/parlays) landing on the first-place Marlins.  Take the “contrarian value” and the nice odds on the old reliable Zito.

San Francisco Giants +150

Games to Watch (0-2, -2.0 units)

Pittsburgh Pirates +157  

San Diego Padres +124

San Francisco Giants +150

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com