The Philadelphia Phillies, as currently constructed, cannot win a World Series.
They may slug their way to one, like Colorado last year. They may get hot and ride a wave to one again, like Colorado last year.
But as sure as the grass is green and the Schuylkill is brown, they will not win one with their current starting rotation.
Cole Hamels is a stud, an ace. A losing streak stopper. The rest of the rotation ranges from wildly inconsistent (Brett Myers) to flat out embarrassing (Adam Eaton).
With a farm system barren of major-league ready prospects, the only option appears to be a trade. And the biggest chip on that table is Ryan Howard.
First off, this is no rant based on Howard’s slow start this season. Personally, I like the guy and his attitude. Plus, he’s having a big week and looks to be coming out of that slump, like most thought he would.
It kills me to think of seeing him blasting moon shots for some other team. But if you think about the four major chips the Phils could deal for a front line, young starter, he’s the biggest and best chip they got.
The other three being:
Chase Utley
Utley is hands down the best second baseman in the game. Jimmy Rollins may dictate the personality of this team, but Utley has emerged as its leader. His hustle, attitude, clutch hitting, and cool-under-fire personality are just too much to give up. He is a guy who does all the little things and all the big things.
He hits for power, hits for average, knocks in runs, doesn’t strike out a lot, is a great base runner, and has improved a ton defensively. Plus his do-anything-to-win attitude is already legendary, and he is loved in Philly.
I would personally light the match to burn down the stadium if they ever traded this guy.
Jimmy Rollins
Asking who I would rather trade, Utley or Rollins, is like asking a man which of his kids he’d rather take in the rescue boat and which he’d leave sinking on the Titanic.
Jimmy Rollins, the current NL MVP by the way, is the guy who gets this thing going. While he’s not the prototypical leadoff guy because he strikes out too much and walks too little, he more than makes up for it with power, speed, and defense. His 2007 stat line of 30 HR, 94 RBI, 41 STL, 212 H, 38 2B, and 20 3B was just sick. And oh yeah, he won a Gold Glove last year as well.
Numbers aside, he gives the team a certain swagger that is noticeably missing when he’s not there.
Cole Hamels
He may be young, and from what you read, he may be a little over anxious for his big-bucks payday, but he is the one shining light in the deep, dark crater the Phillies call a rotation.
15-5, 3.39 ERA with 177 strikeouts in only his second full season, Hamels is already a star in a pitching-starved league at 25. He doesn’t throw hard, so he’s not (relatively) at as much risk for the traditional young pitcher injuries. And he displays more poise on the mound than guys with double his experience.
The guy is a winner, who, if healthy, can be the rock of this rotation for years to come. Plus he’s a lefty. Trading him sends one message to your team and fans: we hate you.
Which brings us to Howard. His power numbers are ridiculous: 142 HR and 384 RBI coming into this season in basically two-and-a-half seasons. He is the fastest player to 100 home runs in history. He was Rookie of the Year in 2005 and MVP in 2006. In short, he has big-time box-office and trade value.
The problem, unlike the other guys, is that he has holes in game. He set the record for strikeouts last year with 199, and is on pace to shatter it this year. He’s a house, so obviously he’s slow—which would be forgivable if he played great D—but he doesn’t.
He’s currently making $10 million this year, which he won in arbitration. But he’s not eligible to be a free agent until after the 2011 season. Therefore giving the club (whoever that club is) some sort of negotiating leverage.
A quick glance around the league and a lot of teams could use a guy with a stick like this.
An even quicker snap judgment tells us that considering what the Phils need and what the other team needs—and what the other team has to have to pay Howard—a good fit would be a team like the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are loaded with talented, young pitching, but they can’t score runs to save their lives. They have no legit power-threat. Their best hitter is Aaron Rowand, who is having a great season, but will never hit over 30 home runs in that park. Forget it.
Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are two young right-handers who would look good in anyone’s rotation, especially the Phillies. They have Noah Lowry scheduled to come back in mid-June. I know Zito has stunk so far, but you have to believe he isn’t this bad. Plus, they’re stuck with him anyway. No one will be stepping up to take that $126 million contract.
Pitching, ironically, is the one commodity they could stand to lose. Power is the one thing they (and their season-ticket buying fans by the way) desperately want. Especially after a certain right fielder left town last year. What was that guy’s name again?
If you could have your pick, you’d have to take Lincecum. He throws gas. He’s got the best natural stuff of anyone, and he is still learning the league. Cain would probably be next. They’re both 24.
I’m not saying I want to see Howard run out of town or traded away just because he strikes out too much. If there was another way, a faster way, to cash in on Utley, Rollins, Hamels and Howard’s prime, I’d be all for it.
But as of now, I don’t see it. All I see is Kyle Kendrick pitching with men on base every inning, Jamie Moyer getting older by the second, and Adam Eaton junk-balling his way to another early hook.
And because I’d liked to see the Philies win a World Series before I have to use a walker to get around, I see Ryan Howard headed out of town.
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4 months ago
I can see Howard being traded. I dont think the Phillies and Howard on on the same page contractually anyway. I believe he is eligible for free agencey after the 2009 season. If not, then its 2010. So figure another $10 million in arbitration to pay him next year and then its a $100+ million contract he'll be seeking. And I severely doubt the Phillies will pay it. They just dont have the ownership that is willing to spend that kind of money to win. Its amazing. I'm glad Im not a fan of this team just for that reason. SO a Howard trade could be in the future. I dont think this season, but come next July, its a definite possibility.
4 months ago
I agree... But Is Eaton really having a bad season? WHat is their record in his starts? Not Eaton's record, the phillies record.
He looked great against the Astros didn't he?
They do not have any pitchers in the minor leagues? That is completely incorrect. Now if you said they are not bringing anyone up from the minor leagues. Maybe that makes sense.
Carrasco is ready today. Carpentar is ready today.
4 months ago
JA Happ 66 strike outs in 57 innings. Steve Green 35 strike outs 26 innings... he is 2-0 in 12 games a RP.
they also have a catcher of the future down there and a first baseman with 8 home runs
That is only triple A
Now double A
Carrasco leads Double A in strikeouts. He is ready
Robert Swindle, a lefty who has pitched 16 innings, and has a .54 ERA.
These options are there. Lets all root for an injury so we can see these boys pitch. They did it with Zagurski and Kendrick last year.
from 4 months ago
eaton's season is bad by any measure, forget his record (0-3) if you want.
more hits (60) than innings 55.1.
almost as many walks (24) as strikeouts 29.
and an era of 5.37 -- on the heels of historically bad '07 ERA of 6.29.
maybe he can turn it around, but it doesn't look good.
4 months ago
The Giants are in a position right now where they know that contending this year is unrealistic. They'll win, but they'll lose more. But this year is about rebuilding, about finding that new face of the franchise. This year is so they can gauge which young guys are going to be the core of this team in the future. Right now, the one who bears that nickname is Tim "Franchise" Lincecum. If this offseason didn't prove anything, its that the Giants are very, very reluctant to even field offers that concern either Cain or Lincecum. So, as much as I'd like to see a great power hitter come into SF, the fact is that if you break up this young team, be it the pitching staff or the infield, they won't have the chance to grow as a team, and someone like Howard would still just be a quick band-aid on a bigger problem.
from 4 months ago
Great point, I like it... So basically its like the Marlins 2 years ago going and bringing in a big name. If they did that, they would not be leading the division today
from 4 months ago
exactly. except with a higher payroll. which is fine. they're already spending like 5 million less this year, the first time in a long time that their payroll was scaled back.
4 months ago
Great article and something to ponder if your ownership. Tim Lincecum is a stud. I would consider that trade, but nothing less. Eaton is horrible, I have been saying it for two years now. I think he should be traded, cut, or sent down. Can we at least try some younger options in the farm system? Utley must stay at all cost! The organization is inept in bringing quality pitching because of payroll fears. + payroll = less profit...the bottom line really sucks for Philly fans!
www.betsuperior.com
3 months ago
This could definitly happen. The Giants need a bat that can hit 30 or more home runs, and Howard can hit 40. The Giants were considering shipping either Lincecum or Cain to the Blue Jays before this season for Alex Rios, so I don't see why they would shrug away from Howard. Not to mention they now have Jonathan Sanchez, who they can also offer up. The Phillies simply can't invest big time money in Howard when they've already invested heavily in both Utley and Rollins. They will sign Hamels to a long-term deal soon. They need a starter, not a slugger. These teams could both thrive with a deal like this. And when you consider that both teams are one piece away from a legit playoff team (The Phillies are a stud starter away and the Giants are a stud bat away), the deal becomes all that much more enticing.
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