NFL: Betting on the Green Bay Packers

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

I should preface this article by saying I do not advocate gambling.

However, I am frequently caught wanting to show my confidence by offering to wager on my views. Thus, I will offer odds on the odds for certain Packers' achievements, as listed according to www.Bodog.com.

Regular Season Win Total, Over/Under

Over   8.5                       -200

Under 8.5                      +160

Take the over here. The only way the Packers do not win nine games is if they have major injuries like 2008 or have an injury to Aaron Rodgers. Chances that the over is the right bet: 60 percent.

Odds to win the NFC North Division: 2:1     

Bet on the Packers. I calculate the Packers as the division's best team—the best quarterback, the best receiving corps, the best defensive backfield, and no units that are not competitive with the Bears or Vikings.

I believe the Vikings chance is about 35 percent and the Bears is about 25 percent. This means the chances the Packers win this bet is about 40 percent, making the average pay-off 4:3.

Odds to win the 2009 NFC Championship: 9:1

These odds are close to accurate. Because the NFC is tight, the Packers could well get homefield advantage, either all the way or at least until the NFC championship. With that advantage, they are a clear favorite.

However, there are better teams in the NFC that could beat the Packers at Lambeau Field. It is also probable the Packers will not obtain homefield advantage for every game.

Thus, I believe to pull this off will require at least one upset. I put the odds of even getting to the game at only about one in three and winning it drops them to about one in eight. That makes this marginally a good bet with a 9:8 payoff.

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 20:1

This is about right. The Packers may be able to win the NFC, but the three best teams in the AFC are all clearly better and would all handle the media attention for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl better than the league's youngest team. I consider this even, but if you had to bet on it, I would say bet against the Packers.

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