The 2008 NY Mets: Starting Their Collapse Early?

Maybe the FOX Saturday baseball team isn't as bad as I think they are.

On April 5th, the first Saturday of the season, I watched the Mets get pounded by the Braves on FOX's first Saturday telecast of the season. During that telecast, Tim McCarver (best known for analysis such as "A contact hitter needs to make good contact to be effective") and Ken Rosenthal predicted playoff brackets.

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees were on either of them.

Mind you, I don't think anyone cares too much about the opinions of Tim McCarver and Ken Rosenthal, but the idea of a postseason without either New York team seems pretty reasonable at this point.

The 2007 Mets were a historic team for all the wrong reasons. I'm sure I don't have to remind you that they missed the playoffs after having a seven-game lead in the NL East with 17 games left to play.

It was such a big implosion that it needs several new adjectives to describe it.

The Mets made what seemed like the right moves this offseason. They needed to get rid of Guillermo Mota, and they did without having to pay him anything (although they did end up trading him for essentially nothing).

Moises Alou's red-hot September rightfully earned him a new contract for 2008. They didn't have a better option for second base than Luis Castillo, so they brought him back too.

They needed a starting pitcher—enter Johan Santana (for a package that probably shouldn't have been enough to land him). Entering into this season, the Mets seemed like they could at least contend with the Braves and the Phillies in the NL East, even if they wouldn't make the playoffs.

But things haven't gone according to plan.

Alou and Castillo, who were hurt in 2007, have both spent stints on the DL this year, Alou making his second trip to it yesterday.

Carlos Delgado, who was a potent force in the middle of the Met lineup two years ago, has been far from it since then. Carlos Beltran doesn't seem to have gotten his legs back after offseason knee surgery.

Jose Reyes's struggles have been the most troubling. When he completely disappeared last September, the Mets disappeared with him.

His struggles have been tied to the Mets' inconsistencies this season, too. The Mets need him ticking for their lineup to work, and, for the most part, he hasn't been.

And who can forget Aaron Heilman? Heilman has been this year's answer to Guillermo Mota. Every time he goes out there, he's good for giving up several runs.

Heilman was once a key cog in the eighth inning for the Mets, but he's had several appearances this year in which it seems like he couldn't get anybody out.

The Mets have taken him out of his setup role, but it hasn't helped. Heilman has said, time and time again, that he wants to start for the Mets, but if he wants to come anywhere close to the rotation again, he has to learn how to pitch first.

Not all has been bad with the Mets.

David Wright, although struggling a bit lately, has had several stretches where he's looked like the best player in the National League. Ryan Church has made everybody forget about Lastings Milledge with some great offense and great defense.

Billy Wagner still hasn't given up an earned run, and although his velocity is down, Duaner Sanchez is still getting people out.

But the best baseball teams get production from everyone, not just one-third of their roster.

The Met franchise has been notorious for off-field problems (usually related to drug use), and they have dealt with their fair share this month.

Billy Wagner has called out numerous teammates this season in front of the press, telling Oliver Perez he needs to pitch better and, of course, wondering why he was being interviewed after a game he didn't even pitch last Thursday.

After a closed-door meeting and a weekend drubbing of the Yankees seemed to cool down tensions, Willie Randolph told a reporter from The Record that SNY was portraying him in a bad light, and that some of the motivation was racial.

He even went as far as to say that Isiah Thomas was run out of the Knicks' job because of his race, which couldn't be further from the truth.

Blowups like these are the signs of a panicked team, a team that's losing control and that's on their way to rock bottom.

So what's the solution? During this stretch, many people have been calling for Randolph's head.

Willie isn't necessarily a bad manager, but he has never known how to manage his pitching staff. He got lucky in 2006 because everyone in his bullpen could get everyone out, but that hasn't been the case in the last two years.

Willie gave the ball to Guillermo Mota too many times last season. He has a shorter leash with some pitchers (Oliver Perez and John Maine) and leaves others in a little too long (Santana). He also tends to overwork his bullpen, as evidenced when Joe Smith went from lights-out to AAA mess last season.

Randolph is always a top professional in front of the press, and says all of the right things when the cameras are on him (despite his recent comments). But maybe he isn't the right guy for the Mets anymore.

They're playing lifeless baseball these days, and that can be a sign that a manager has lost his team. By all accounts, Randolph is a fiery guy when he needs to be, and now is one of those times.

The problem is that there aren't any good managerial candidates available right now.

The Mets could always promote bench coach Jerry Manuel (who led the Chicago White Sox to 95 wins in 2000), but he hasn't managed in nearly six years.

Bobby Valentine doesn't seem like he wants to leave Japan, either. Grady Little certainly wouldn't cure the Mets' pitching management problems.

Should Randolph continue to survive during the Mets' struggles, it would be more of a third chance for him (the second chance was given after last year's collapse), but it looks like he just can't get the Mets to play consistent ball.

 You know that the Wilpon family wants to win this year so that they can fill their new, Ebbets Field-esque stadium in 2009. The idea was that bringing in Santana would be enough to get the Mets back over the hump in 2008.

And even though it's early, and even though the Mets aren't that far out of it, it doesn't seem like Santana's addition will be enough.

They need more consistent efforts out of their roster, and they need them before it's too late. If the Mets can't cure their hitting woes in the thin air of Colorado, against another struggling team, they may not be able to cure them at all.

And yet, they aren't close to being out of it. They're only three games behind Atlanta and Philadelphia, who have struggled out of the gate, too.

The Marlins are in first place, four and a half games ahead of the Mets. That's the good news.

The bad news is that the Mets were even closer five days ago, just one game behind Florida and either tied or ahead of the Braves and Phillies. It may still be early, but every game still counts, and the Mets can't afford to let the teams ahead of them gain more games.

Over the last two seasons, the Mets have gotten off to hot starts in April and have played close to .500 ball for the rest of the season.

They didn't get that hot start in 2008, as they're one game under .500 after last night's loss to Atlanta.

This means that either the Mets will hit their hot streak later in the season (perhaps in September, as the Phillies did in 2007), or that it will not come at all.

Which scenario will occur is unclear.

Santana has historically been a better second-half pitcher during his career, and the Mets did get great production from Alou and Wright last September.

However, the bullpen and many other hitters in the lineup fell apart down the stretch last season. One thing is certain, though: the Mets need to dominate for a stretch of this season if they want to be in it at the end.

If you would have told me that the Mets would have been here on April 5th, it may not have surprised me. If you would have told me they would look as hopeless as they do, I would have sided with McCarver and Rosenthal, too, and not had them in the playoffs.

Let's hope they prove everybody wrong and turn it around.