Does Strength of Schedule Matter in Fantasy Football?

Depending on who you ask, Strength of Schedule (SOS) is either meaningful or meaningless. There doesn’t seem to be much gray area among the experts. Yet each season articles abound on the impact of SOS on seasonal outcome, and of course, the fantasy implications…if there are any. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle, as it most often does.

Strength of Schedule not tough enough for the Steel Curtain

–Who SOS Hurts–

Last season the Pittsburgh Steelers had the worst schedule, yet they won the division and their sixth Super Bowl title. However, the Steelers are a great team, so this is not too surprising.

The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, surprised everyone with their division-winning turn around. The fins benefited last season from a decent schedule, and the loss of Tom Brady from their division rival, New England Patriots. In 2009, Miami has the toughest schedule (statistically) and Brady is back. Their first three games are against Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Diego. They also have to face the Steelers and Titans’ defenses this year. Miami will most likely struggle to be a .500 team this season. This means fantasy hopefuls like Ronnie Brown and Ted Ginn, Jr. are going to likely have a tougher go of producing this season. This hurts Brown most because a losing team plays from behind, meaning they have to forego the ground game for the air. So weak teams with tough schedules have to pass more, and run less.

Will schedule hurt Matt Ryan and Michael Turner's fantasy production in 2009?

The Atlanta Falcons are in much the same boat as the fins. Sophomore QB Matt Ryan faces a more daunting schedule than last season, so from a fantasy perspective Michael Turner will see fewer touches in losing games, and guys like Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will see more looks.

The Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills are three other teams whose fantasy production will be affected. DeAngelo Williams will struggle for double digit TDs this season, Marshawn Lynch will struggle as well, and the Bucs three-headed RBBC already makes their ground game a fantasy mess. Players I think will do well are the Panther’s Steve Smith, the Bill’s Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, and Kellen Winslow in Tampa.

–Who SOS Helps–

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