Ok, we all know the usual lines for this fight, and could probably repeat word-for-word what supporters on both sides will say. But interestingly enough, many of these "facts" are not nearly as proven as people would think. Taking into consideration the following "given" aspects of the fight, we will attempt to determine if they are fact or hearsay.
I will start with the one that annoys me the most:
"Sherk is a smaller version of Matt Hughes (who lost to Penn)."
Yes, they are both wrestlers, but that is where the comparison ends.
In general, Sherk has a completely different type of takedown shoot than Hughes. Hughes often goes in for a single leg shot, which he can use to pick people up and slam them, and is also the type of takedown BJ has the least trouble defending due to his freakish flexibility. Sherk goes for huge driving double leg takedowns, not lifting for a slam but driving straight through the opponent like a torpedo until he gets his takedown or hits the fence.
In terms of striking ability, Sherk has struck with -and sometimes outstruck- some fighters who are considered to be good on the feet, the six foot tall Nick Diaz, for example. Hughes has never really outstruck anyone, and even with a shorter reach than Hughes, Sherk was able to handle himself reasonably well on the feet against Georges St. Pierre in their fight. Although not known for KO power, Sherk has very solid boxing and mixes it into his takedowns very well.
When Hughes and Sherk fought, Sherk actually took 2/5 rounds against Hughes despite being outweighed by a fair margin, and is the only person to take the former champion all five rounds in his career.
"BJ has suspect cardio."
This is really the cornerstone of a lot of people picking Sherk to win. Frankly it's understandable given the reputations and hype from the UFC of both fighters. However, while BJ has been known to fade in fights at higher weights, he has gone all five championship rounds at 155 pounds twice, and both times looked as effective in the last as he did in the first. In fact, in his title bid against Caol Uno, he actually looked to be increasing his pace at the end of the fight.
Sherk is a cardio machine, as evidenced by the image of him hunting down Hermes Franca like the terminator until Franca was so tired he couldn't do anything but turtle up. I do think that he will have the cardio advantage over Penn and is capable of effectively wearing him out under the right conditions, but to suggest that Penn will suddenly be reduced to a quivering blob if the fight goes into the third round is ridiculous.
"BJ/Sherk has an iron chin"
Frankly, this is true of both men. Franca hit Sherk with some of the biggest knees I've ever seen in a fight, period. Most of them didn't do much to wobble him, and none of them stopped him from getting the takedown. The one that did affect him dropped him to one knee, where he appeared to slump for half a second, then bounced back up and completed his takedown, which was fairly incredible to watch (but admittedly doesn't say much for his knee defense).
Penn, simply put, has a head like a rock. He has eaten shots from a then-heavyweight Lyoto Machida, the same man to knock out Rich Franklin. Not once did he appear to be fazed. He may not have the standing defensive abilities of Sherk, but he seems more than willing to take punishment in order to inflict it, and is definitely able to do so.
Both men have been in situations where they have been trapped and taking punishment; Penn from Hughes and Sherk from Georges St. Pierre. Both fighters took unanswered blows until the fight was stopped, but neither looked close to losing their faculties at any point. Sherk's stoppage came from a heavily bleeding broken nose, while Penn's came from an apparent inability to escape his position.
In short, both men have only one TKO loss on their record, and in reality neither man has ever been knocked out. Objectively one would have to give the natural "chin" advantage to Penn, but it's understandable to rank them about even based on all the factors.
Neither fighter has ever been submitted either, so both are obviously hard to finish. Which brings us to:
"Sherk can't finish a fight."
This one in particular bothers me, because a simply glance at Sherk's record shows that he has won over 65% of his fights by TKO or submission. Admittedly, Penn has a higher finishing percentage at 75%, but at the top level everyone should know that fights are much more prone to go to decision.
This line against Sherk generally seems to come from people who have only seen him fight recently, going against Franca, Kenny Florian, and Nick Diaz in the last two years. All three men are notoriously hard to finish. In fact, excluding a cut stoppage on Diaz, the three have been finished only once each. As for the complaint that Sherk did nothing to submit Franca when he had the dominant position, one must remember that Franca has never been submitted in his career.
As for who Sherk (and Penn) have been fighting recently:
"Sherk hasn't fought anyone good/Penn has fought much better competition."
People look at Sherk's record and only seem to see the names of Kenny Florian and Franca. Yes, he has fought some "no-names" in his career, but when you're fighting in the smaller shows and no one wants to fight you, that's what happens. Even so, he dominated pretty much everyone he faced at that level, many of them very badly. He's also beaten some guys you'd be surprised about, and some of them fight a lot higher than 155. To start, he's beaten Tiki Ghosn, Manny Gamburyan, Benji Radach and Karo Parysian, actually stopping Karo in their second fight.
Penn has certainly fought the bigger names, and has overall had the more high-profile competition. It's not really arguable, from an empirical standpoint. Yes, he fought at higher weight classes, and did pretty well there. But while that may make him the better fighter in a ranking sense, it has little bearing on this fight.
Conclusion
All in all, BJ probably will take this match. There is a reason he's the betting favorite. But people who are counting Sherk out need to have their reality check. Most people seem willing to concede that Sherk will get the takedown sooner or later, but there also seems to be a large faction that believes Penn will submit him from his back. The fact of the matter is this: BJ Penn has never submitted anyone from his back in an MMA match, and Sherk has never been submitted.
The possibility of BJ finishing Sherk is always there, as it is in any fight with BJ, but looking at Sherk's record it seems unlikely. The likelihood of Sherk finishing BJ is somewhat low, but Sherk is fully capable of holding his own and dragging Penn into the deep waters where he can exert his powerful control and win the fight. If the fight goes to a decision, the advantage lies in Sherk's court.
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4 months ago
Speaking as a person who has gotten sick of UFC 84 reviews, I loved this article. Pick of the Day -- 5 stars (first time I've given either). You really made me think when reading this article and actually provided information I haven't heard in any one else's articles. You definitely opened my eyes a bit on the wrestling analysis between Sherk and Hughes. You made a good point on the "Sherk can't finish a fight" one too that opened my eyes a bit. Not that it is likely to apply here, I don't see him finishing Penn. Just one thing:
"He may not have the standing defensive abilities of Sherk, but he seems more than willing to take punishment in order to inflict it, and is definitely able to do so."
Would you still give the advantage to Penn on the feet overall, though? I would, but you've opened my eyes with some of your other points in this article already so I won't make assumptions, I suppose.
from 4 months ago
I would give Penn the advantage on the feet as far as his ability to inflict damage, but he tends to come in wide and swinging hard with his combinations, which could easily be the opening for Sherk to get his takedown. I also feel that Sherk has the more well-rounded standup, as Penn employs more of a boxing game while Sherk can employ kicks pretty well too. However I don't really see either fighter using kicks much in this fight.
For an idea of how Sherk trains to blend standup into takedowns, check out this drill:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P5MbvNIq88
Thanks for reading!
4 months ago
I forgot to say something about the BJ Penn submitting Sherk off his back idea. I don't necessarily think Penn will submit Sherk off his back if he gets taken down, but I do think it's important to note:
Sherk will have extreme difficulty trying to pass BJ's guard, I think BJ is great at getting the fight back to the feet from his back, and BJ has the ability to reverse position from the bottom like he did in the second round vs Hughes (second fight, of course), where he switched position from on his back to taking Matt Hughes back in a matter of seconds, and from there ended up working a triangle attempt which was close to successfully ending the fight.
4 months ago
Finally, someone with something new to say about UFC 84!
Im tired of reading the same old articles thrown together in ten min with the same darn previews/predictions. You made me think a bit with this one, and it was a good read.
I just keep going back and forth on this one, I mean I think BJ should win, but if hes anything less than his best I think Sherk will make him pay for it.
4 months ago
I would have to say that I have considered these points, but it is nice to see someone else thinking outside the box on this one. Great article!
As far as the stand-up debate, the fact is that BJ has proven in his last fight that his stand-up has improved. Sherk has not shown that kind of progress. When strikes seem to be getting the better of him, he switches to what he does best: wrestling. So, just because BJ has proven his stand-up skills, he has the edge, but it doesn't mean Sherk doesn't have the same skills.
And as far as Penn submitting Sherk from bottom guard or half guard, it would be the toughest of his life. The main submissions for him would be:
- guillotine (extremely tough against a neck as think and strong as Sherks)
- arm bar (very tough after sweat comes into play and against Sherk's muscle)
- triangle (also hard to get the arm controlled to sink the choke for the same reason's as the arm bar)
Of course that isn't to say he won't go for something a little more creative like a gogoplata, but Sherk's power might be enough to avoid most if not all submission attempts from Penn's guard.
4 months ago
I can't believe you are giving credit to Sherk on his wins other than Florian and Hermes. "To start, he's beaten Tiki Ghosn, Manny Gamburyan, Benji Radach and Karo Parysian, actually stopping Karo in their second fight."
Tiki Ghosen is nothing special and I wouldn't be proud if I beat him. He beat Manny when he was 18, same with Karo, is that really something to be proud of , finishing a 19 yr old Karo Parisyan, Benjis alright, but that fight was along time ago. To give him credit for these wins and make them seem like they're high fighters is hilarious. Go down Penn's record and I bet you won't laugh when you read it.
from 4 months ago
If you read a little closer, you will notice that I stated explicitly in the article that BJ has fought a higher level of competition.
Sherk has also fought people at as high as 185 pounds, but they weren't famous so no one knows about it.
4 months ago
I see BJ getting taken down giving up his back and using a sweep through maybe some form of a leg lock to get Sherk’s back then isolating his arm in a body triangle getting the rear naked choke. Like in the Pulver fight I believe this tacit was designed to beat a fighter like Sherk. It will be over if BJ gets this guy’s back he is not the type of fighter that will not capitalize on that type of dominate position, I don’t care if he has never been submitted cause he’s never fought BJ. Did anyone see BJ in his last fight? He was improved and Joe wasn’t even competitive next to him.
4 months ago
I agree with nick. I think bj's best chance to end this fight will be a rear naked choke.
The other submissions will be difficult as jon pointed out above and I don't see bj getting out of position long enough to get pounded by sherks elbows on the ground. Also, I don't see either guy being able to stop each other on their feet.
Bj penn via rear naked in 3rd round
4 months ago
I've read a lot of people's opinions on this fight, and I haven't seen many pick BJ by sub off his back. Jon showed why it would be very difficult for Penn to pull off such a sub.
Penn will be looking to get on top of Sherk, pass his guard, and finish from there, most likely with his patented rear naked choke. He could also go for the tko if he gets the mount.
Penn will either soften Sherk up before taking him down, or look for a sweep or reversal if Sherk gets him down. If Sherk can press the action and survive the first two and a half rounds, he could pull off a decision.
Sherk does not want to be on his back in this fight, yet eventually I think he will find himself there. Penn by rear naked in the second.
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