Khris Middleton's Game Makes Him Universally Appealing in 2015 NBA Free Agency

This season, Milwaukee Bucks swingman Khris Middleton blossomed as a key part of one of the league's most exciting young teams, becoming a solid contributor on offense and one of the best wing defenders in the league. Now, he's headed for a sizable raise in free agency this summer. 

Middleton is a restricted free agent, which means the Bucks can match any contract offer he receives (within three days) and retain his services. The free-agent market may set his value at as much as $15 million per season, one league source told Sean Deveney of Sporting News. The Bucks could match that amount and seem likely to do so, but that shouldn't discourage any team from pursuing him. Middleton is a gamble worth taking.

On offense, the style of the league has continued to move towards pace and space—pushing the ball in transition and spreading the floor with shooters around penetrating ball-handlers. With the Golden State Warriors and the Atlanta Hawks building on what the San Antonio Spurs have been doing for years, the demand has never been higher for wings who can both pass and shoot, finish in transition and attack a closeout.

On defense, the ability to defend multiple positions on the wing has become even more important as teams look to swarm opposing ball-handlers and switch screens without leaving themselves exposed.

Middleton's versatile (and still developing) skill set checks each of those boxes and makes him a perfect fit on almost any roster. While his per-game statistics from last season don't necessarily imply a value of $15 million...

PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	3PT%
13.4	4.4	2.3	1.5	0.1	46.7%	40.7%

...Evaluating his impact and potential requires a deeper look.

Defense

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Middleton has built a reputation as a three-and-D wing, and he most certainly has the defensive portion of that equation down. But that label falls somewhat short here, implying a player who can merely hold his own on the perimeter. 

ESPN's Real Plus-Minus estimates Middleton's defensive impact to be 4.10 points per 100 possessions better than an average player. That puts him as the eighth-most impactful defender in the league this past season and the top defensive shooting guard after Tony Allen.

Real Plus-Minus is built using both box score statistics and a player's on-court/off-court splits, adjusted for his teammates and the quality of the opposition. If you examine those granular details outside the formula, you can see how and where Middleton shines.

Among wings who played at least 1,000 minutes this season, Middleton ranks sixth in steal percentage at 2.6. His defensive rebound percentage of 14.3 is the same as Paul Pierce and just a hair below power forwards like Taj Gibson and Nick Collison, both of whom are well-regarded for their rebounding ability.

The Bucks were one of the NBA's better defenses this season, but that was mostly when Middleton was on the floor. When he was in the game, Milwaukee allowed 96.0 points per 100 possessions, which would have led the league in defensive efficiency. When he went to the bench, that number jumped by more than eight points to 104.1 points per 100 possessions, which would have tied for 20th. That's a pretty stark illustration of Middleton's impact, and we're only just beginning. 

One of the reasons the Bucks defense was so strong with Middleton on the court was that he excelled in small areas that aren't necessarily captured by traditional statistics. For example, Vantage Sports tracks the defensive effectiveness of players closing out on shooters. Middleton, given his role, was one of the best players in the league at this skill.

Altogether, according to NBA.com, opposing players shot just 39.5 percent from the field when Middleton was the closest defender. That was the second-best mark for a forward who defended at least 700 shots—just behind Draymond Green and just ahead of Anthony Davis. Again, this is some pretty notable company for Middleton to be in, and it's especially notable considering both Green and Davis are so much bigger and stronger. 

The other piece of Middleton's defensive value is versatility. In late February, Bleacher Report's Michael Pina wrote about Middleton and focused in on this point:

"

On defense, Middleton is the ideal contemporary player. He's long, he's quick, and he can guard three or four positions. Bucks head coach Jason Kidd has taken advantage, unleashing Middleton in a switch-happy system that utilizes all he brings to the table.

"

Putting all the pieces together, Middleton was one of the best and most versatile wing defenders last season, and he's the kind of player who could be of benefit to almost any system.

Offense

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Like we saw on defense, the three-and-D label may sell Middleton's offensive game short as well. Of course, he is a great outside shooter, having knocked down 40.7 percent of his three-point tries last season. But as you can see from his shot chart, there is more to his game than that:

http://austinclemens.com/shotcharts

Middleton is good around the rim, very good in the mid-range and phenomenal from the corners. The Bucks were loaded with wings this season, and there was a lot of overlap in terms of skill. Without an offensive focal point to push everyone else into specific roles, Middleton often floated on the perimeter without opportunities to assert himself. 

In a Q&A with Grantland's Zach Lowe, he talked about being encouraged to put himself first in the offense more regularly:

"

Someone with the team told me everyone has been on you to take the first good shot instead of passing it up to look for a teammate. Is that a conversation you have with coaches — to be a bit more selfish earlier in the shot clock?

Yeah, many times. Players, coaches, the front office — they’re always on me when I pass up a good shot to try to be unselfish and make a play. They want me to take that first shot when it’s available.

Is that against your nature a bit?

A little bit. I’m an unselfish player. In high school, I played a lot of point forward, and I had to get everyone involved. But here, they want me to shoot and score, and that’s what I had to do.

"

In an article at Nylon Calculus, Seth Partnow found statistical evidence to support the idea that Middleton could be much more assertive on offense. Specifically, among a select group of young wings, he ranked second in effective field-goal percentage on shots created by the shooter (those having a touch time of more than 2.5 seconds). On these self-created shots, Middleton trailed only Kawhi Leonard in efficiency, ranking ahead of other up-and-coming wings such as Bradley Beal, Gordon Hayward and Jimmy Butler. 

The table below shows Middleton's offensive performance broken down by the NBA's play type statistics. You can see the percentage of his offensive possessions that came in each type, his average points per possession and his percentile rank compared to the rest of the league.

Play Type	% of Poss.	PPP	Percentile
Spot-Up	25.7%	1.20	93.9
Off-Screen	17.0%	0.93	57.1
Transition	16.9%	1.21	71.8
PnR Ball-Handler	9.0%	0.65	24.0
Post-Ups	7.6%	0.89	62.2
Isolation	5.6%	0.92	71.8

The vast majority of Middleton's possessions are as a shooter—either spotting up or running off screens—or getting out and finishing in transition. He was in the middle of the pack coming off screens, solid in transition and among the league's best spot-up shooters. Finishing in the 93rd percentile puts him just behind J.J. Redick and just ahead of Danny Green and Eric Gordon.

It is the last three categories that are most intriguing. Middleton clearly has some room to grow in using screens to create shots for himself, but he was very good on both post-up and isolation possessions. The fact he didn't do either very often would imply his efficiency is matchup-dependent. But the ability to have another player on the floor who can go one-on-one and capably exploit a switch or other defensive mismatch is huge.

The entire league is moving in the direction of versatility, particularly on the wings. Players need to be capable in a variety of roles, both offensively and defensively, and comfortably shift those roles from possession to possession in the ebb and flow of the game.

Middleton has shown he can do that, not just capably, but as well as anyone in the league right now. He's not a star, at least not in the traditional sense of the word. But he's the kind of player you could slot seamlessly next to a star of almost any shape and size to tremendous effect.

There are just a handful of players who can do what Middleton does, and therefore there are just one or two teams in the league for whom his contributions would be redundant. There are some teams for whom the financials of offering Middleton a contract just aren't feasible and a few more who will be scared off by the likelihood of the Bucks matching any offer he receives.

Still, Middleton's skills transcend the idea of fit, and if he isn't on your team's offseason radar, then something has gone horribly wrong.

Not bad for a guy who was the throw-in in the Brandon Jennings-Brandon Knight trade, right? 

All statistics via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.