Is It Time for Charlotte Hornets to End the Al Jefferson Era?
The NBA is and always will be a superstar-driven league. It's downright impossible to win if your main guy isn't up to the task of leading the team to a title. With that line of thinking in mind, the Charlotte Hornets find themselves in a strange predicament heading into the 2015 offseason.
Eleven years into the career of Al Jefferson, we know he is a great player but not a guy you can rely upon to get you to the promised land. The perennial 20-10 threat has been one of the most consistent big men in the league for a decade, but we just saw exactly what happens when you shape your whole game plan around an aging 30-year-old center who can't play defense: You wind up 33-49.
Jefferson had a renaissance campaign in 2013-14 and led the former Charlotte Bobcats to a surprising playoff berth, where they were swept as the No. 7 seed by LeBron James' Miami Heat.
Following his plantar fascia injury in that postseason, Jefferson was never quite the same this past year. His defense was atrocious, and his 16.6 points per game output was the lowest since 2006-07.
The Hornets are at a crossroads, which begs the question: Is it time to end the Big Al era?
The Argument for Sticking with It
The 2014-15 season crashed and burned for many reasons that did not involve Jefferson.
The pairing of Lance Stephenson with Kemba Walker was supposed to create the league's most exciting new backcourt. Instead, Stephenson left his shot with the Indiana Pacers when he signed as a free agent this past offseason, and Walker took some huge steps back in his development.
Head coach Steve Clifford also exhibited a short leash. Rookies Noah Vonleh and P.J. Hairston weren't provided with much of a chance to succeed, and Clifford's persistence in relying upon average veterans, such as Brian Roberts, Gerald Henderson and Jason Maxiell, did this team no favors.
As for Jefferson, he is only 30 and should be back to his old self next year. Although he was banged up most of the campaign, Steve Reed of the Associated Press noted how important conditioning is to Jefferson this offseason.
If an in-shape Jefferson shows up to training camp, Charlotte still has to call some audibles to make things work. It won't be easy, but it is certainly doable.
Frank Berndt of SB Nation put together a great piece on Charlotte's offensive shortcomings with Jefferson as the leading man. "Alfense," as he called it, is a risky way to win ball games but failed more due to the coaching staff and supporting cast. He defined it as "the overuse of a four-out, one-in offense where Al Jefferson camps out on the left block for entire possessions."
Charlotte's offense was abysmal to watch at times. There was poor spacing and no shooting.
But one slight tweak could change all that.
Move Jefferson off the block to the elbow on occasion and get him in more pick-and-rolls, as well as some high-low action. He has proven to be more of a willing passer than he was in the past, so moving him to other spots will keep the defense guessing and allow him to utilize some other skills besides one-on-one postups.
Moving Jefferson around also would create lanes for Stephenson and Walker while opening up backdoor cuts for Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. This is the way Charlotte has to play to keep up with today's NBA.
It's a bold move, but Jefferson has a lot to play for in 2015-16. Big Al has a $13.5 million player option that he is likely to opt into, according to NBA.com. Look for him to be much improved and ready to cash in for perhaps his last big long-term deal next summer.
The Argument for Ending It
This past year made it 11 seasons without a second-round playoff appearance for Jefferson. Since leaving the Boston Celtics, he has been the main piece for three separate franchises (Minnesota Timberwolves, Utah Jazz and Charolotte Bobcats/Hornets), and none has succeeded. He hasn't even tasted a postseason victory since his rookie campaign of 2004-05.
You just can't build a winning team around Jefferson. He is a very good player, but old-school, back-to-the-basket centers who can't protect the rim are novelties in this league, not cornerstones.
That is not to say you cannot win with him.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the team Charlotte appears to model its game after. Memphis took a similarly plagued player named Zach Randolph and worked him into its system. Z-Bo finally experienced extended playoff success as a key cog instead of the focal point.
This is exactly what the Hornets must do to win with Jefferson. The problem is they don't have the cavalry. This is a rebuilding team just clinging to hopes of patching together what has fallen apart.
Charlotte possesses the No. 9 pick in a pretty good draft. It will have its choice of a guy like Willie Cauley-Stein to take Jefferson's place or Stanley Johnson to provide more hard-nosed defense and a possible go-to scoring threat. It could also look at a lethal shooter like Devin Booker.
Another high-profile rookie is just one more guy who doesn't mesh with Jefferson right now. Walker, MKG, Vonleh, Hairston and Zeller are all recent first-round picks the Hornets have made to solidify their core. This Alfense is doing nothing but stunting their development.
The Hornets can be really good if Jefferson plays like he did in 2013-14. That's a big if and one not worth gambling on.
The Verdict
Acceptance is the first step. Charlotte is refusing to buy into its inevitable rebuild by clinging to Jefferson and wasting money on free agents like Marvin Williams, Roberts and Maxiell.
General manager Rich Cho is fixing the Titanic with duct tape if he continues on this path. There is no question Jefferson has had a positive impact. However, "pretty good" is the Hornets' ceiling with him leading the charge. That's all any Big Al team has ever been.
Piling up an impressive stable of young talent means nothing if you don't let it develop. By clinging to Jefferson like this, the Hornets are actually delaying the onset of the new era.
Charlotte needs to bite the bullet and play the young guys. It will be better off in the long run. Should the Hornets find themselves outside of playoff contention come February—and they most likely will—trading Jefferson and his expiring deal has to be on the table. It's better than having him leave for nothing.
It could be worth it to keep him around for more tutelage so the youngsters can learn, but this marriage has to end if the Hornets find themselves well under .500 like they did in 2014-15. Charlotte knows what it has with Jefferson, and it is better off ripping the band-aid away now as opposed to the trade deadline. He isn't going to help much more than he already has.
It would be great to see a shift in ideology that allows this offense to run smoothly, but the best-case scenario in that instance might be a second-round playoff appearance. If Charlotte wants to compete for a championship anytime soon, it has to throw the young guys into the fire.
Jefferson isn't leading Charlotte anywhere it hasn't already been.
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