2009 NCAA Football Preview: Punxsutawney Phil Steele at It Again

(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

“Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooooold out there today…”

“Well, it's Groundhog Day... again... and that must mean that we're up here at Gobbler's Knob waiting for the forecast from the world's most famous groundhog (sportswriter), Punxsutawney Phil, who's just about to tell us…”

…the Oregon Ducks didn’t make his top 25!  Where does Punxsutawney Phil Steele, “the seer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators” have the Ducks rated then?  26?  27?

The Coaches Poll has Oregon at No. 14.  They land at No. 16 in the AP.  Sporting News places them at No. 7.  Jeff Sagarin has them at No. 10.  And Sports Illustrated tabbed the Ducks as BCS "Party Crashers," ranked them No. 11, and even put them on their regional cover.

In fact, at least 11 different prominent forecasters have the Ducks in their preseason top 10.  And according to the Massey Ratings, which takes an average of 28 different experts, Oregon sits at No. 10.

So, Punxsutawney Phil, what is it?  30?  31? Would you believe not even in his top 50?!?  And Phil only lists 50, so we’ll never know just how low he has them.

“That's right, woodchuck-chuckers…it's…GROUNDHOG DAY!”

Phil Steele has a tendency to do this every year it seems.  And by this I mean completely blow it on a handful of teams.

I’ll admit it, for the better part of a decade I’ve felt Phil could do no wrong, especially compared to Athlon’s, Lindy’s, and the like.  I’d buy them all.  And Phil would outperform them in every aspect—info, insight, stats, and picks.

Then I started noticing that he takes a few too many fliers and often misses.  And I started to realize that to beat out those mags isn’t saying a whole lot—the majority of them just want to be out there first, regardless if they make the right picks, or even have the right depth charts.

Since 2005, an average of 20 teams from Phil Steele’s top 50 have not received a single vote in the final Coaches Poll.

Also since 2005, 18 different teams have ended the season ranked in the Top 25, yet, were mistakenly omitted from Phil’s Top 50.

2005

Along with his various stats and formulas, Phil has always been big on returning starters.  In fact, it’s even on his Facebook page regarding his concerns for the 2009 Oregon Ducks having “just 9 returning starters.”

West Virginia, according to his 2005 mag, had the “fewest returning starters in the league.”  They missed out on his top 49 that year.  Yet, the Mountaineers somehow managed an 11-1 season and a No. 6 final ranking.

TCU, in 2005, "must rebuild the O-line," he wrote.  Not in Phil’s Top 49, yet finished 11-1 and #9 in the nation.

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