Making Sense of MVP Clayton Kershaw's Sluggish 2015 Start

SAN FRANCISCO — The elementary numbers are ugly. There is no denying that.

They are magnified when they occur in the first quarter of the season and when no one is used to seeing them from such a dominant figure and arguably the best pitcher of this generation.

Yet there they are next to Clayton Kershaw’s already storied name. The 4.32 ERA and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 4-5 record when their ace takes the ball have left the baseball community scrambling for answers.

That's especially the case after he allowed four earned runs, one of them on a home run to opposing pitcher Madison Bumgarner, and contributed to his team's loss for the third time in his three starts against the rival San Francisco Giants on Thursday at AT&T Park.

Kershaw was asked if frustration had set in when it comes to his Dodgers not winning more of his starts. The 27-year-old left-hander, obviously not a fan of the question, begrudgingly responded.

“Yeah,” Kershaw said, and then nothing else as he stared down the curious reporter.

Through nine starts, we are left to analyze Kershaw’s advanced statistics, though the Dodgers likely will not. They are well aware of how well their reigning National League MVP has pitched despite the on-the-surface stats—his expected FIP (xFIP) was a major league-leading 2.15 before Thursday. They see he has been the victim of some uncharacteristic bad luck, and that he has faced Bumgarner three times, with his offense giving him a total of one run in those outings.

They also see that it won’t take much in the way of a statistical shift, or Kershaw’s own command, to correct his abnormal 2015. The media that watches his every start know this too, which is why Thursday’s postgame media scrum had little to do with “what” or “why” and more to do with Kershaw’s mood.

The same questions were posed to manager Don Mattingly.

“You pitch to win and you’re pitching good enough to win,” Mattingly said. “I’m sure he’s frustrated like everybody’s frustrated.”

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Certain things are becoming common analytical baseball knowledge by now. Kershaw is making hitters swing and miss at wondrous rates, even more so than last season. His 11.65 strikeouts per nine innings, 31 percent strikeout rate and 24.5 percent strikeout-to-walk ratio all ranked in the top five of major league starters, with the former two ranking second behind James Shields at the start of Thursday.

Those are the things Kershaw can control.

Stranding runners, however, is out of a pitcher’s hands—for the most part. Unless Kershaw is striking out hitters at an elite rate once runners reach, which he did in 2014 with the second-highest rate in the majors (32.2 percent), leaving men on is reliant on factors such as defense. This season, going into Thursday’s start, Kershaw was still good (30.6 percent, fifth in the majors) but was relying more on his defense.

That led to his strand rate dipping to 65 percent, by far a career worst and light years away from his 2014 career-best 81.6. And it doesn’t help that his .349 BABIP would be the worst of his career and 29 points higher than his second-worst mark (.320 in his rookie season), according to FanGraphs.

Then there is Kershaw simply missing location, something well within his control.

Kershaw has spoiled us with exceptional control in the recent past, so we don’t expect that flaw from him. His pitches are supposed to obey his expectations and never deviate, not even by fractions of an inch. But they are this season. 

The pitches to Troy Tulowitzki and Buster Posey last month, as well as the one to Bumgarner on Thursday, badly missed location. They were all supposed to be down and in to right-handed hitters, but he left them up and over the plate. For as good as Kershaw is, not even he can miss that badly against major league hitters without facing the consequences.

“Fastball right down the middle,” Kershaw said about Bumgarner’s homer, the first he has ever given up to a pitcher. “I should have had a little more respect for him, I guess.”

Another area of trouble for Kershaw has been first-pitch location. The Posey and Bumgarner homers came on the first pitches of the at-bats, a count in which Kershaw has allowed four home runs this season after allowing three in all of 2014.

“He’s had a rough start to the year,” Bumgarner said, acknowledging Kershaw as the game’s best pitcher. “But that’s still a small sample size. You can’t take away what he’s done before.”

The thing with Kershaw’s issues—leaving men on base, BABIP, pitch location and first-pitch woes—is that they can all shift courses almost immediately. They are either highly influenced by luck or completely in the pitcher’s control.

As soon as next week, Kershaw could again start to dominate. He knows it. The Dodgers know it. Even Bumgarner knows it, evident after the San Francisco media asked if he took into account his own postseason success and Kershaw’s October struggles when determining Kershaw’s status as the ace of aces.

“That’s one month,” Bumgarner said, “compared to a career.”

Along with what we already know, enough said.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.