Michigan Football: Predicting the Wolverines' 2015 Win-Loss Record
Given the proper circumstances and conditions, the Michigan Wolverines could win eight or nine games under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh in 2015. But given reality, the fact they don’t have an experienced quarterback and the gaping holes in other areas, a six- or seven-win finish could be in the cards.
Either way, just about anything would be an improvement upon going 5-7 and missing a bowl game.
Optimism is the word in Ann Arbor, but fans must temper expectations. Yes, Harbaugh is the answer for the Wolverines. He represents what they’ve been trying to replicate since 1989, the final year of the Bo Schembechler era. But even he needs an ample amount of time to set parameters.
It shouldn’t take him too long, but a two-year grace period should be extended. It will take him at least that long to get Michigan in position to compete in the Big Ten before taking a hard charge toward Michigan State and Ohio State.
The Wolverines’ 2015 schedule is as follows:
- Sept. 3 at Utah
- Sept. 12 vs. Oregon State
- Sept. 19 vs. UNLV
- Sept. 26 vs. Brigham Young
- Oct. 3 at Maryland
- Oct. 10 vs. Northwestern (HC)
- Oct. 17 vs. Michigan State
- Oct. 31 at Minnesota
- Nov. 7 vs. Rutgers
- Nov. 14 at Indiana
- Nov. 21 at Penn State
- Nov. 28 vs. Ohio State
At first glance, dates with the Spartans and Buckeyes catch attention, but Week 1 at the Utes will also present challenges for Harbaugh, who opens the fall against a team that embarrassed the Wolverines 26-10 in Ann Arbor a year ago.
This slideshow will break down the most winnable games to the most, well, losable ones for the Wolverines—plus those in between—by taking a look at returning personnel, coaching, timing and arrangement of games, plus the all-knowing “what if” factor.
Quick Hits
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Devin Gardner is out, and junior Shane Morris is in at quarterback. Or will it be true frosh Alex Malzone? Perhaps fellow 247Sports' 4-star recruit Zach Gentry, who arrives this fall, will be under center. It could be also be Jake Rudock, a senior graduate transfer from Iowa.
Take the foggy scenario hanging over the position into account before projecting a 10-win season for the Wolverines. Without a firm starter in place, they won't sniff .500.
Along with redshirt sophomore Ty Isaac, Derrick Green and De'Veon Smith (both juniors) should be the lead running backs this fall. Neither one of them has truly broken the ice, and Michigan's staff hasn't seen Isaac at full capacity.
Take those factors into account too.
Oh, and the offensive line, as usual, is a clustered mess. Aside from fifth-year senior Graham Glasgow (the starting center) and Mason Cole (a sophomore left tackle), the Wolverines don't have a lot to brag about up front. That could change with the addition of offensive coordinator/O-line guru Tim Drevno. But like everything else, that will take some time.
Despite notable struggles, Michigan's O-line took a few baby steps in the right direction this past fall. The progression of the middle (center, quarterback, running back) of the offense, or lack thereof, will determine if Harbaugh's first team is exciting to watch or a complete yawner.
Oh, and Don't Forget...
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In addition to the issues mentioned in the previous slide, the Wolverines will also have to cope with the losses of linebacker Jake Ryan (who led the team with 112 tackles), receiver Devin Funchess (who led the team with 733 yards and four touchdowns) and defensive end Frank Clark (who led the team with 4.5 sacks).
Brennen Beyer, another veteran defensive end, is gone too.
And there’s more.
Blake Countess, a senior corner, recently announced that he plans to transfer. When on his game, Countess, who made the 2014 preseason Jim Thorpe Award watch list, was one of the strongest pieces of Michigan’s secondary. He played in 38 games during his career, making 30 starts along the way.
Dennis Norfleet may not be around either. The senior athlete was recently dismissed or suspended, depending on who’s saying what, from the team two weeks ago. Without “Fleetwood,” the Wolverines will be without a dangerous kick returner. The potential absence of such a threat could put a crimp in plans.
Jack Miller, the former starting center, resigned his post after just a few spring practices. The fifth-year senior cited personal reasons and the desire to explore new avenues in life as his reasons for leaving the program.
That should cover it.
Now it's time to look at the games.
Easy Wins
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To be fair, there aren't many "easy" wins in college football. They’re all difficult to a degree—some are just more challenging than others.
With that said, the Wolverines shouldn’t have too much difficulty Sept. 19 when hosting UNLV in Ann Arbor. The Rebels will enter The Big House coached by Tony Sanchez, who just so happens to be a first-year college coach. Prior to joining UNLV, he headed Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas.
He had great success there. He got to coach Snoop’s son. Everything was great.
He’ll get a hearty welcome from Harbaugh, who should win that game handily.
Indiana usually presents a mixed bag. The Hoosiers have talent, but like the rest of the Big Ten, they just can’t seem to put together enough to take out conference big boys such as Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin.
Then again, we could say the same about the Wolverines.
Road games are tricky. They’re like playing two opponents at the same time—the other team and the other venue. Bloomington isn’t known as an overly hostile environment, so it’s easy to predict a win Nov. 14 for Michigan, which owns a 59-4 series lead over Indiana.
Scores: UM 38, UNLV 10; UM 33, IU 14. These predictions hinge on a rebuilt and re-energized offense, but it's not out of line to foresee lopsided victories against the Rebels and Hoosiers.
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Coin Flips
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In 2014, Maryland, then a newcomer to the Big Ten, knocked off the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, 23-16. The Terps have lost star receiver Stefon Diggs to the NFL and quarterback C.J. Brown to graduation, but they’re coming off a somewhat promising 7-5 season.
On Oct. 3, Maryland hosts Michigan in College Park. At this point, there is no clear favorite.
Coach Bronco Mendenhall is 82-33 in 11 seasons at Brigham Young. He’s played up on several occasions, meaning that the Cougars have been and will be prepared to face a major program such as Michigan. Like the Maryland game, this one could go either way on Sept. 26 in Ann Arbor, the week prior to facing the Terps.
Like Michigan, Oregon State is preparing for a new era in coaching. Gary Andersen, formerly of Wisconsin, appears to be the right man to guide the Beavers back to contention in the Pac-12, a conference gaining respect among college football pundits.
Playing in Ann Arbor for the first time with a new team won’t be easy, but like BYU, Oregon State has proved capable of playing with anyone at any time. Consider this Week 2 clash to be a toss-up as well.
Back in the day, Michigan vs. Minnesota was one of the best series in the game. Today, it’s an annual Saturday meeting that ends with the Wolverines retaining the “Little Brown Jug.” But the Gophers could flip things around thanks to Jerry Kill—he’s one of the main reasons why Minnesota’s football program has experienced a boost during the past two years.
In 2014, the Gophers manhandled the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, 30-14. They probably won’t do that again this season, but they’re in line to get a second straight win over the Wolverines for the first time since winning four in a row from 1960 to 1963.
When it comes to Northwestern, it's anyone's guess. With crazy comebacks and upsets, the Wildcats continuously play spoiler and show glimpses of greatness...sometimes. Count this one as 50-50, but maybe just a tad closer for the Wolverines, who host Oct. 10 for homecoming.
In 2014, the Wolverines lost a heartbreaker on the road to Rutgers, 26-24, due to a blocked kick. The Scarlet Knights visit Harbaugh's place on Nov. 7 and will have designs on going back-to-back with wins. This one could be quite entertaining. Quarterback Gary Nova is gone, which means that the Wolverines most likely won't be subject to another 500-yard assault.
Scores: UM 24, UMD 20; OSU 28, UM 17; MINN 28, UM 24; UM 30, NW 27; UM 21, RU 14 (prediction of 4-2 in "coin flip" games).
Uphill Climbs
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The first game is always the toughest. New players, new expectations, new everything. It’s simply unwise to think that Michigan will travel west to Utah and pile on the Utes. Put it this way: It’s not going to happen.
In order to win, the Wolverines must remember what it felt like bowing to the Utes in the rain if they want to notch a victory in the desert. Utah should be the slight favorite on Sept. 3.
Michigan State has the upper hand, a leg up, a stranglehold—OK, you get the point. The Spartans’ streak of winning six of the past eight has them riding high in East Lansing. Really, that probably goes for Ann Arbor too. Location doesn’t matter all that much for this one, because the Spartans run the state until further notice.
It’ll take a couple of times of locking horns before Harbaugh takes down Mark Dantonio.
Nov. 21 at Penn State could be a turning point for Michigan. This year will be all about firsts for Harbaugh, and he’ll be in search of his first win at Happy Valley, one of the most intimidating venues in college football.
Circumstances will vary. Injuries will play a factor, and so will hot hands and cold spells. It’s too early to accurately predict much right now, but for the sake of prediction, call the late-fall meeting in Pennsylvania in favor of Harbaugh—for right now, anyway.
As for Nov. 28 versus Ohio State, well, it would be nice to cap off the season with a home win over Urban Meyer. A quick look back to 2013 and 2014 is enough to expect a shootout this time around. In 2013, the Wolverines were a two-point conversion away from securing a 43-42 win. The try failed, and Michigan lost 42-41.
Despite losing 42-28 in 2014, the Wolverines showed signs of life during their season finale versus the Buckeyes.
Expect a shootout with the Buckeyes, who'll probably end up finding a way to deflate Harbaugh in the finals moments. Michigan is getting close to beating Ohio State, but it’s not yet close enough.
Scores: UTAH 28, UM 13; MSU 31, UM 10; OSU 38, UM 35; UM 23, PSU 17 (1-3 in "uphill climb" games).
Prediction for 2015: The high end, the absolute high end, is 8-4. But don’t rule out 6-6 or 7-5, at least for the time being. It’s only late May, so these picks are obviously subject to change as the season draws nearer.
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes and references were obtained firsthand by the writer via press conference, press release or other media availability.
Follow Bleacher Report’s Michigan Wolverines football writer Adam Biggers on Twitter @AdamBiggers81.
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