Belmont Stakes 2015: Early Odds and Predictions for Top Horses to Watch

A historic Triple Crown is on the line for the third time in four years at the 2015 Belmont Stakes.  American Pharoah emerged from the Preakness slop to pull away for a decisive win at Pimlico, cementing his status as the best three-year-old in the world.

However, that status doesn't particularly matter much at Belmont, where a fatigued Pharoah will face several stiff challengers who have had a five-week break since the Kentucky Derby.  Plenty of talented horses have fallen short at the longest Triple Crown race, and while Pharoah is as dangerous as any of them, he'll face the same issues that derailed the 13 horses since Affirmed last captured the trifecta in 1978.

In the wake of the Preakness, Odds Shark notes that Bovada has Pharoah as a 10-11 favorite, while 5Dimes is even more optimistic at 20-23. Using the list of probables from Horse Racing Nation, let's lay out the entire field and highlight the top horses to watch.

Horse	Trainer
American Pharoah	Bob Baffert
Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher
Frosted	Kiaran McLaughlin
Materiality	Todd Pletcher
Mubtaahij	Michael De Kock
Keen Ice	Dale Romans
Madefromlucky	Todd Pletcher
Frammento	Nicholas Zito
Conquest Curlinate	Mark Casse
Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart

Horses to Watch

American Pharoah

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

There's no mystery about the race's top headliner.  Bob Baffert's horse remains undefeated in graded stakes races and will attempt to snap the 37-year Triple Crown drought.  This is also the fourth time Baffert has entered the Belmont gunning for history after winning the first two legs.  Baffert previously trained Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002).

Truthfully, though, the odds are unlikely to make Pharoah worth betting.  He is a deserved favorite after the first two legs, but his odds will certainly be significantly shorter than the rest of the field's, overstating his actual chances to win the race while helping hedge against the public's betting trends.  Indeed, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver notes that other recent Triple Crown hopefuls have had their odds overstated:

Perhaps the recent string of failures will help lengthen Pharoah's odds a bit.  Since Smarty Jones narrowly finished second behind Birdstone in 2004, three Triple Crown contenders have failed to finish (Big Brown, 2008), gotten scratched (I'll Have Another, 2012) and finished fourth (California Chrome, 2014).

Baffert told the Associated Press' Richard Rosenblatt (via Yahoo) that Pharoah was "a little tired," though he insisted that it was simply a case of normal post-race fatigue.  

Pharoah closed well at both Churchill Downs and Pimlico, which should theoretically bode well for his chances at the 1 1/2-mile race.  However, it would also be folly to assume that Pharoah will have a full tank for the race, putting him at an inherent disadvantage.

Prediction: Fourth Place

Frosted

The fourth-place finisher at the Derby, Frosted was set to represent one of Pharoah's biggest challengers at the Preakness before getting pulled out.  Now fully rested, Kiaran McLaughlin's horse is an even more dangerous threat to Pharoah, and he might actually deserve serious consideration as the real pre-race favorite.

Frosted is also among the more experienced horses in the field, with eight total races and five graded stakes races, and has never finished lower than fourth in any of those starts.  Despite finishing out of the top three at Churchill Downs, Frosted was actually among the fastest horses in the field, and he covered the most distance of any horse in the entire race:

His jockey, Joel Rosario, spoiled California Chrome's Triple Crown last year, riding Tonalist to victory at Belmont.  Moreover, McLaughlin is no stranger to success at the final leg, having won the race in 2006 with Jazil.  Thus, even though Frosted has just a single graded stakes win (Wood Memorial Stakes in April), the pedigree of his trainer and jockey augur a successful run.

While Pharoah toiled away at Pimlico, Frosted has been running at Belmont the past two weeks, according to Evan Hammonds of BloodHorse.com.  It appears he's peaking while Pharoah recovers, giving Frosted a massive edge and making him the biggest threat to derailing this year's Triple Crown bid.

Prediction: Win

Materiality

Todd Pletcher might be Baffert's biggest nemesis at Belmont, as he'll have a pair of rested horses, Materiality and Carpe Diem, running against Pharoah.  The former should emerge as one of the more intriguing contenders by race day, so now might be the time to cash in while his odds aren't particularly short.

Unlike Frosted, Materiality is a relatively callow horse, with just two graded stakes races, including his sixth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby.  However, Pletcher's horse did win the Grade 1 Florida Derby in March, and he has a more stamina-oriented running style, which should bode well for him at the long track:

Indeed, Materiality was sired by Afleet Alex, who won this race back in 2005.  Despite his inexperience, Materiality has already proven capable under adverse circumstances, as he ran a gutsy race at Churchill Downs despite losing a shoe early in the race.  

Pletcher has been famously snakebitten at the Derby but has captured this race twice, with Rags to Riches in 2007 and Palace Malice in 2013.  Materiality won't be the favorite to become his third winning ticket, but don't be surprised if this horse is near the front of the pack down the home stretch.

Prediction: Place