Belmont Stakes 2015: Biggest Threats to American Pharoah's Triple Crown Bid

American Pharoah will be the likely favourite for the 2015 Belmont Stakes after wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but he'll find plenty of threats on his way in his bid to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Affirmed was the last horse to manage the impressive feat, and while plenty have come close since then, it speaks to the difficulty of winning the Triple Crown that fans haven't seen any winners in 37 years.

There are plenty who believe this time could be different, however, and it's easy to see why. American Pharoah is an incredibly talented colt, and USA Today's Dan Wolken likes his chances:

Of course, per Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, he's not the first horse to be widely backed by pundits and fans alike after impressive showings in the first two legs of the Triple Crown:

So, let's have a look at the biggest threats to American Pharoah's Triple Crown bid.

Fatigue

American Pharoah won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in a span of two weeks, a close win over Firing line at the Kentucky Derby before a dominant showing in stormy conditions during the Preakness Stakes.

At Churchill Downs, jockey Victor Espinoza was forced to send the colt wide, and American Pharoah won by covering more distance than the rest of the pack. The downpour at Pimlico didn't make things any easier, as trainer Bob Baffert told Wolken:

The colt has three weeks to recover before the race at Belmont, while some of his top competitors for that race didn't run at all at Pimlico. Per the New York Racing Association, the likes of Materiality and Frosted will be fresh and rested, a big advantage over American Pharoah:

It's one of the biggest reasons we see horses fail at winning the Triple Crown year after year. California Chrome's owner Steve Coburn went on an infamous rant after last year's failed attempt, addressing this exact issue. He believed it was unfair to his colt, and it's easy to see why.

American Pharoah will have to overcome fatigue in what might be the toughest of the three races due to the longer distance at Belmont Park.

Distance

Belmont Park presents American Pharoah with a longer track than either Churchill Downs or Pimlico, and FiveThirtyEight's Benjamin Morris sees it as arguably the biggest reason so many horses have failed to finish the Triple Crown in style since Affirmed did it in 1978:

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Of the 23 horses that won the Preakness and not the Derby since 1979, just five won the Belmont (the last to do so was Afleet Alex in 2005). And of the 23 that won the Derby but not the Preakness, just two won the Belmont: Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch in 1995. In total, 59 horses have won either the Derby or the Preakness or both since 1979, and of those, just seven have won the Belmont.

The main thing that separates the Belmont from the other two races is its length: At 1.5 miles (or 2.4 kilometers, or 12 furlongs), it’s over a quarter-mile longer than either the Derby or the Preakness. This distance has become increasingly rare in American horse-racing over time, to the point where almost all horses entering the Belmont these days have never raced it. Even highly experienced trainers may not have much experience with it.

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As Morris explains, most American horses simply aren't trained to be successful over such a long distance. This ties into the danger of fatigue as well: It's far more likely for a fresh horse to cope with the immense length of the track better than a horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes.

There will be one horse running at Belmont with more experience on longer tracks: the Irish-bred Mubtaahij. Racing out of Dubai, the colt had a solid showing in the Kentucky Derby and has looked very fast preparing for the Belmont Stakes, per the Blood-Horse:

American Pharoah has shown his incredible pace, but the Belmont Stakes are just as much about endurance. If he were to complete the Triple Crown, it would truly be an incredible feat.

History

This one is simple. Since Affirmed, 13 horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown and failed at Belmont. Baffert himself has had three chances and failed each time, as shared by ESPN Stats & info:

Jockey Victor Espinoza has had two tries at the feat as well, most recently on California Chrome. As simple and straightforward as it may seem in light of American Pharoah's dominant showing at Pimlico, it's almost impossible to complete the Triple Crown.

American Pharoah has a great chance of finally ending the 37-year wait in 2015, but in order to do so, he'll have to overcome a bunch of obstacles. The weight of expectations won't even be the biggest of all.

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