Fantasy Fodder: The Third-Year Wide Receiver Theory

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A widely held belief exists that wide receivers do not come into their own until their third year in the NFL.

This theory held true for Terrell Owens, who had 14 touchdowns and 1,097 yards receiving in 1998. Chad (Johnson) Ochocinco, likewise, made a leap in 2003 with 1,355 yards and 10 scores.

However, guys like Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, and Anquan Boldin developed sooner. Reggie Wayne and Donald Driver took until year four to breakout.

So I’m not sure I buy this myth. However, a lot of football brains much bigger than mine swear by this third-year philosophy, so I won’t argue. Using the "third year’s a charm" theory of wide receiver relativity, let’s take a look at the guys who might hit their stride this season.

The Overachievers

Calvin Johnson, DET

Megatron already broke out in his second season with 1,331 yards and a dozen TDs. He is the best wide receiver in the NFL and would be the first receiver off the board if he played for a better team. He’s not sneaking up on anyone in 2009. Johnson is currently the fourth WR taken; his ADP is 16.5.

Dwayne Bowe, KCC

Bowe has averaged 1,000 yards and six TDs a season through his first two years. That’s not spectacular, but he should certainly do as well if not improve in year three. After showing up for camp overweight and having new coach Todd Haley relegate him to the second team, Bowe has worked his way back to the frontlines. Bowe is currently the 12th WR drafted; his ADP is 35.45.

The Promising

Anthony Gonzalez, IND

Gonzalez has 620 yards and a few TDs each season so far. In his third season there are high expectations as former Colts WR Marvin Harrison moved on, leaving a massive fantasy void for Gonzalez to fill. He is currently being drafted earlier than he should be, based in anticipated returns on Harrison’s absence. A-Gonz is currently the 21st WR off the board at an ADP of 56.47.

Ted Ginn Jr., MIA

While Ginn has improved his yardage each of his two seasons in Miami, he has only two TDs each season to show for his efforts. If his preseason performance this year is any indication, season three will be no better than season two’s 790 yards and two scores. Ginn may soon be wearing a "BUST" label. He is currently the 37th WR taken at an ADP of 111.31.

Steve Breaston, ARI

Breaston took a giant leap forward in 2008, but it was a mixed bag. He had 77 receptions for 1,006 yards, but only found the end zone three times. His improvement bodes well for the Cardinals but leaves fantasy owners torn between fluke and promise. 2009 should tell the tale for Breaston who is currently the 38th receiver off the board at an ADP of 112.76.

The Underachievers

Steve Smith, NYG

Smith hasn’t been that impressive so far for the Giant’s. In 2008, Smith played his first full 16-game season and had 574 yards but just one paltry score. Even the absence of Plaxico Burress did not get Smith jumpstarted. I don’t expect Smith to suddenly come alive this season. In fact, I believe rookie receiver Hakeem Nicks will surpass Smith, who's currently the 45th WR taken with an ADP of 132.97.

Sidney Rice, MIN

Rice was stagnant in his second season in the NFL. The arrival of Brett Favre to the Vikings may just be the catalyst Rice needs to make a name for himself. I wouldn’t put too much faith in that hope, though, with Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin on the field as well. Rice is currently the 63rd receiver grabbed with an ADP of 179.82.

Robert Meachem, NOS

The Saints and fantasy owners have been buzzing this preseason about Meachem. The “sleeper” word has been thrown around quite a bit that this will be his breakout campaign. If there is any place for a receiver to shine, it’s with Drew Brees hucking the pigskin to you. I like his odds better than Smith’s or Rice’s above. He’s currently then 68th WR taken; ADP is 186.82.

Mike Sims-Walker, JAX

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