Extending Whitney Mercilus Means the Houston Texans Commit to Mediocrity

There is a rosy scenario for the Houston Texans where re-signing outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus to a four-year, $26 million contract extension—as reported by ESPN's Tania Ganguli—isn't a complete waste of money. Imagine it with me.

Whitney Mercilus has become a good edge run defender, and he turns 25 years old in July. He's averaged six sacks a season. Perhaps we're buying low on a player who hasn't shown his full complement of talents yet.

And, hey, though it took less time for us to develop them than Mercilus, we have (eventually) been right about the talents of first-round picks like tackle Duane Brown and cornerback Kareem Jackson. We've also (eventually) been right about tackle Derek Newton.

I'm sick of talking about our weakness at quarterback. I'd really like a grilled cheese sandwich.

These notions come from my interpretation of Texans general manager Rick Smith's train of thought. Let's get out of there and leave the man to his food thoughts—nobody should be judged for those.

The difference between those situations and this one is that the Texans aren't just plugging a guy in at a low cost and hoping he can do the job despite all available evidence—they're rewarding him preemptively for the job they think he'll be able to do.

But isn't it worth something to be a good NFL run defender? Shouldn't Mercilus' improvement in that area mean that he is developing? And how can I acquire a grilled cheese sandwich?

Well, I'll let you take care of the sandwich. You've earned it. As for Mercilus' run-game improvement, let's pull up a list of 3-4 outside linebackers up who defended the run well and could not rush the passer in 2014.

In a 3-4 defense, outside linebackers are equivalent to defensive ends in a 4-3 and are the primary pass-rushing threats in the alignment. Thus, the money often flows to 3-4 outside linebackers who can get after the quarterback. See if you can spot the outlier in terms of contract situation:

Player	Team	Snaps	PFF Run Stop Grade	PFF Pass Rush Grade	Contract
Jabaal Sheard	CLE	690	+9.4	-0.7	2 years, $11 million, $5.5 million guaranteed
Whitney Mercilus	HOU	822	+7.3	-6.7	4 years, $26 million, $10.8 million guaranteed (plus last year of rookie deal)
Trent Murphy	WAS	595	+6.7	-3.9	On rookie contract
Sam Acho	ARI	483	+6.5	-3.6	1 year, $825k
Jarret Johnson	SD	556	+5.3	-6.9	Retired
Courtney Upshaw	BAL	542	+5.0	-3.1	On rookie contract
Matt Shaughnessy	ARI	341	+5.0	-7.2	2 years, $4.4 million, $1.4 million guaranteed
Bjoern Werner	IND	762	+4.7	-9.0	On rookie contract

The players on this list who were free agents this offseason, Sam Acho and Jabaal Sheard, combined to get less money than Mercilus.

Jarret Johnson, who retired, exemplifies the player of this mold. While he retired on his own terms, I'm sure teams weren't exactly lining up for a shot at him in free agency. Bjoern Werner is on this list, and the Colts are so in love with him that they deactivated him for last season's the AFC Championship Game.

So I think it's fair to assume that Smith sees some pass-rushing growth in Mercilus' game—or at least is forecasting it. The problem with that is, well, projecting someone to improve a trait that they don't have isn't often a winning proposition.

In this case, to go back to the Colts, this reminds me a lot of when GM Ryan Grigson signed outside linebacker Erik Walden. Yes, that's right, I think Mercilus is Rick Smith's Erik Walden move.

Player	Years prior to Contract	PFF Overall	PFF Pass Rush Grade	PFF Run Stop Grade	Contract
Walden	2010-2012	-58.6	-26.3	-35.1	4 years, $16 million, $8 million guaranteed
Mercilus	2012-2014	-29.6	-26.8	+1.9	4 years, $26 million, $10.8 million guaranteed

If Mercilus holds on to his gains as an edge defender, he brings us right about to the current Walden level: a solid player who shouldn't kill you if pressed into starting duty, but nobody you'd want a long-term commitment to.

They earn their keep in different ways and I'd even venture to say that, in today's NFL, Walden's current skill set is more valuable. I'll take the average pass-rusher over the good run defender.

This extension for Mercilus is just an inflation-adjusted Walden contract—right down to the years and the lack of track record. Everybody killed the Walden contract the minute it was signed, and remember, Walden at least had the excuse of being on the open market.

The Texans were bidding against no one but themselves here.

In extending Mercilus, Smith is asking us to trust his track record of pulling rabbits out of hats for players who looked lost. But there would be no greater surprise in his tenure than to see Mercilus become a productive pass-rusher, and that's why this is a bad contract.

The issue is not that Mercilus shouldn't get another shot at the starting lineup or that he's even a bad player. It's that his lack of pass-rushing acumen over a large sample size makes him highly unlikely to develop further.

In actually betting on it happening, Rick Smith is doing what is akin to going all in with 9-4 offsuit.

Rivers McCown is an NFL Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.