Did Ryan Grigson Blow the Colts' Chance to Become AFC Champions?

There’s a certain language to the NFL draft each spring, and the approach of Indianapolis Colts general manager Ryan Grigson can accurately be summarized using three letters: BPA.

Taking the best player available is preached repeatedly through that industry-standard abbreviation, especially in the opening round. On a fundamental level the strategy seems foolproof. To follow it an astute general manager should simply rank the players likely available for his team in the first round, and then select the best one still on the board.

But simple isn’t part of the draft language. The draft flows in ways that are sometimes highly predictable and other times erratic. The result can be calling the name of a prospect who not only doesn’t address a need, but isn’t needed at all, and yet he’s still the best player available.

Or for Grigson, the result was wide receiver Phillip Dorsett.

There was a sort of grieving process that occurred immediately when Dorsett was selected, and it went in stages. First there was curiosity about what Grigson could be thinking by prioritizing a wide receiver—any wide receiver—with his 29th overall pick.

Dorsett, a now former Miami Hurricanes wideout, is instantly buried on a Colts depth chart at his position that includes newly signed Andre Johnson, breakout 2014 receiver Donte Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton and highly touted CFL stud Duron Carter.

Then curiosity gave way to feeling baffled, which eventually turned into laughter.

Grigson warned us this was coming.

“The best player available mentality is I think the healthiest mentality to have, especially when I feel like for the most part, the roster looks pretty balanced,” he said during a predraft press conference, via Steve Andress of Colts.com.

What's really communicated by Grigson's words and actions? A team that’s shown it’s not ready to take the next step in the AFC by ending back-to-back seasons with playoff losses to the New England Patriots (combined score of 88-29) has no glaring short-term holes.

Grigson looked at his roster and determined with his most valuable pick he could add a luxury item. In his mind he had the freedom to take a player who may not have any notable impact until halfway through his rookie contract.

He could take the best player available and have no regrets.

“This just shows how we stick to our guns when it comes to taking our best player available on our board,” Grigson said after the first round, via Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star. Basically, he went full Peggy Olson in response to the anticipated outcry.

The problem here isn’t that Dorsett is a poor receiver or has a troubling outlook at the professional level. No, his crystal ball has many visions of secondary-busting and neck-twisting speed.

Dorsett posted the second-best 40-yard dash time among wide receivers at the 2015 scouting combine, running that distance in only 4.33 seconds. Then at his pro day he did more grass torching while clocking times of 4.27 and 4.24, according to the stopwatch held by ESPN’s Todd McShay.

Raw speed that doesn’t translate into football production is useless, which isn’t an issue for Dorsett. His final year at Miami ended with two numbers that force you to pause for a few moments before truly comprehending what took place. Dorsett averaged 24.2 yards per reception, and he scored 10 receiving touchdowns despite only 36 catches.

That’s rather efficient, and as I noted early in April while breaking down some of Dorsett’s game film, matching his blazing strides often requires a device made by the Acme Corporation.

No, speed and production certainly aren’t concerns. What’s troubling is the Colts already have a Phillip Dorsett.

Player comparisons throughout the draft process allow us to better wrap our minds around a prospect’s body type and how his skill set could be used. They’re especially important for wide receivers and running backs, skill positions where many different approaches can lead to success.

Dorsett was constantly linked with a receiver who he now shares a depth chart with, which cranks the curiosity knob on Grigson’s pick. Both Dorsett and Hilton are small with overwhelming speed.

Receiver	Height	Weight	Combine 40-yard dash time
Phillip Dorsett	5'10"	195	4.33
T.Y. Hhilton	5'9"	178	4.34

Dorsett has a little more bulk, but that doesn’t change how he brings value to an offense. He does that with the same quickness and explosive cutting Hilton used to finish with 1,345 receiving yards in 2014, the league's sixth-highest total. It was already his second 1,000-plus yard year over three NFL seasons, and Hilton has also collected 19 career touchdowns.

The Dorsett pick could begin to make a little more sense in 2016. Hilton is entering a contract year, and if he stays healthy the 25-year-old will surely go kaboom again in a loaded offense. At that point he’ll quite rightfully demand a significant raise (likely in the neighborhood of $10 million annually) and Grigson can pass while pointing to the T.Y. Hilton 2.0 who’s already on the roster.

While that sounds like some pretty cozy leverage, at some point a general manager’s focus has to drift a little more toward the short term. That doesn’t happen as often in the draft because it’s a time for building and rebuilding.

But when the assembled support for quarterback Andrew Luck already looked like this before the draft, perhaps it’s time to dial back the BPA mentality just a touch and prioritize premier talent at areas of need.

Player	Position	Notable recent numbers
Frank Gore	RB	Allegedly fading at 31 while still post four straight 1,100-plus rushing years
Coby Fleener	TE	Career high 774 receiving yards in 2014
Dwayne Allen	TE	8 receiving TDs in 2014, tying Fleener for fifth among TEs
Andre Johnson	WR	Two straight 1,400-plus yard seasons prior to 2014
T.Y. Hilton	WR	In 2014 finished fifth in yards on 20-plus yard targets (528, per PFF)
Donte Moncrief	WR	Two 100-plus yard games in rookie season while playing only 39.1 percent of snaps

Luck was surrounded by a surplus of talent before Grigson added Dorsett. Meanwhile, the five men in front of him and the 11 men who do the defending make for nervous watching.

Hilton and Dorsett need a few precious seconds to get downfield even with their immense speed, seconds Luck too often doesn’t have. The sacks he took decreased to 27 in 2014, down from 35 in 2013 and 41 in his rookie season. But that decline is a product of his mobility more than the protection he’s receiving.

The Colts gave up 107 quarterback hits in 2014, making them one of only four teams to hit triple digits.

Team	Rank	Quarterback hits
Indianapolis Colts	29th	107
Washington Redskins	30th	113
Jacksonville Jaguars	31st	118
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32nd	124

Grigson saw those numbers and whacks and knew his right tackle, Gosder Cherilus, is recovering from another set of surgeries. Cherilus had groin and knee procedures this offeason and previously underwent microfracture surgery. Not too long ago in late March Grigson was taking a wait-and-see approach with the 30-year-old.

“Tackles are really hard to find and we really like Gos, but we have to see how he comes back,” Grigson told Stephen Holder of The Indianapolis Star.

He didn’t have to draft a right tackle in the first round. But maybe don’t wait until the seventh round, though, and leave yourself trusting Cherilus to recover after he was a liability and allowed six sacks on 975 snaps in 2014, per PFF.

The even greater pressing needs were at either safety or defensive tackle. Grigson waited until Day 3 to finally address those positions with mid-to-late round picks (safety Clayton Geathers in the fourth round and nose tackle David Parry in the fifth).

He was content at safety even though a far superior player was available when Dorsett became a luxury pick. When the Colts were first on the clock Thursday night no safeties had been selected yet. They could have called Landon Collins’ name and happily slotted the hard-hitting Alabama safety in as an immediate upgrade over the atrocious Dwight Lowery. In 2014, he allowed 621 yards in coverage while in the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary, the most of any safety who played at least 50 percent of his team’s defensive snaps, per PFF.

Safety was a gushing need, along with an interior defensive lineman. A run defense that was mediocre at best (ranked 18th in 2014) needed more beef up the middle. The Cleveland Browns had already selected Danny Shelton at No. 12 overall, but Malcom Brown was ready and waiting.

Instead, the 319-pounder who had 13 tackles for a loss during his final season with the Texas Longhorns came off the board three picks later.

The central flaw with stubbornly sticking to a best-player-available approach is that it invites blindness.

With a late-round pick the Colts weren’t in a position to fully fasten their blinders. The truly exceptional talents were long gone, which is when the focus should shift to a happy middle ground. Grigson could have selected a really great player and also a player who could improve a weakness.

But no, he stuck to three letters: BPA. In doing so he’s aggravated multiple current players, according to a Pro Football Talk report, and left gaping holes as head coach Chuck Pagano enters the final year of his contract.

If the Colts don’t finally get past the Patriots and ascend to become AFC champions in 2015, they can look all the way back to April 30 and see the first fumble.