Kentucky Derby Jockeys 2015: Final Predictions for All Riders at Churchill Downs

One year ago, everyone knew a colt by the name of California Chrome was sure to dominate the field at Churchill Downs. 

This year there seemed to be a similar favorite, but American Pharoah's chances continue to take a hit on the path to the race—and it sure doesn't help this is one of the deepest fields the globe has seen in years.

There's a lot to keep up with when it comes to scratches, post movement, practice runs and more. Let's swing the tide back in the public's favor a bit by offering some fresh full predictions below.

2015 Kentucky Derby Viewing Info

Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky

When: Saturday, May 2, at 6:24 p.m. ET

Watch: NBC

Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra

2015 Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds 

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds	Predicted Finish
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	25-1	7
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	8-1	6
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	16-1	3
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	50-1	9
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	33-1	10
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	12-1	8
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	18-5	1
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	40-1	15
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	12-1	5
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux	SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena	SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	33-1	12
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	40-1	14
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	16-1	4
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	50-1	11
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	50-1	16
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	13-5	2
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	25-1	17
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	40-1	13
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	66-1	18

All Kentucky Derby odds courtesy of Odds Shark. Note: Per Fox Sports, Stanford (No. 11 post) was scratched with Frammento taking his spot. Horses will move up one gate with Frammento starting from Gate 20. Per Jonathan Lintner of USA Today, El Kabeir (No. 7 post) was scratched, leaving No. 1 vacant. International Star was scratched early Saturday morning, per Churchill Downs PR's Twitter account.

Breaking Down Top Three Finishers 

The first thing sure to jump out about the predictions above is American Pharoah finishing in second.

Bob Baffert's crown jewel is the best horse in the field, but the post position isn't doing the three-year-old colt any favors. He'll wear No. 18 on Saturday for the sake of appearances, but run out of the No. 17 post—which has never produced a winner.

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia still believes in Baffert's top horse, though, as Lance McAlister of ESPN 1530 captures:

Were this any other year and any other post, American Pharoah would perhaps cruise to a victory. But no horse has won from the 17th slot and this field is too deep for any one horse to blow away the rest of the pack.

Baffert's other dominant horse, Dortmund, is American Pharoah's biggest problem.

Sired by Big Brown, a near Triple Crown winner, Dortmund has yet to lose and rests in a favorable post position. As David Purdum of ESPN.com captures, Dortmund is a horse bettors continue to count on and it could cost Las Vegas in a big way:

"

At William Hill, Dortmund attracted 32 percent of all money bet on the Kentucky Derby futures book, including a $2,500 wager at 8-1 placed on March 15. That's nearly double the amount of money that was placed on American Pharoah at William Hill, before the future book was closed prior to post positions being released. A Dortmund victory would cost the William Hill book a six-figure loss, according to director of marketing Michael Grodsky.

"

Jockey Martin Garcia leads Dortmund at Churchill Downs, too, and as someone with experience aboard both of Baffert's elite horses, his knowledge may put Dortmund at a distinct advantage when it matters most.

After the first two, look for Materiality to shock the field.

Materiality didn't race as a two-year old, but is undefeated in three starts and has jockey Javier Castellano up top to guide the way. There's an elite burst out of the gates to watch for, as well as enough endurance to go the distance.

The concern is a lack of experience, but at the recent Florida Derby Materiality proved his mettle with a triumph over fellow Kentucky Derby contenders such as Itsaknockout and Upstart.

Trainer Todd Pletcher spoke with the media about his young favorite, per Keith Sargeant of NJ.com:

"It's going to happen at some point. There have been changes in the game, less two-year-old racing. From a physical standpoint, he's a big, solid horse. That being said, he hasn't been in a big field yet. You have to hope the lack of experience doesn't hurt him.''

It's tough to doubt a Pletcher-trained horse, just as it is with any horse Baffert trots out.

Expect the two to duel at the finish line Saturday, although it won't be the Baffert horse everyone expects who crosses first and begins a path to Triple Crown contention. So it goes when post positions don't smile on contenders.

Stats and information via KentuckyDerby.com unless otherwise specified.